Indystorm Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 2500 CAPE in central area and CIN nearly eroded over much of OK even at this early hour per SPC meso page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soonertrey Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 That convective complex is impinging well into Oklahoma now. The "shallow warm frontal feature" mentioned in SPC's 13Z Day1, and by others here, seems likely to merge with the outflow from that complex and become not-so-shallow. Indeed, the Oklahoma Mesonet is now showing a 15-degree temperature gradient across the span of only about 30 miles (Blackwell to Red Rock). I wonder whether that outflow will end up shoving the area of greatest helicities a bit farther south toward the metro than earlier anticipated. Yeah, I think the northern one-third of the hatched area is out of play now. I would expect the SPC to reflect this with their next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 current KTLX VAD hodograph with mesonet surface wind www.tornadostore.net/vad/vad.php?mode=3&radar=ktlx&sfcnet=mesonet&sfcstn=nrmn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 That convective complex is impinging well into Oklahoma now. The "shallow warm frontal feature" mentioned in SPC's 13Z Day1, and by others here, seems likely to merge with the outflow from that complex and become not-so-shallow. Indeed, the Oklahoma Mesonet is now showing a 15-degree temperature gradient across the span of only about 30 miles (Blackwell to Red Rock). I wonder whether that outflow will end up shoving the area of greatest helicities a bit farther south toward the metro than earlier anticipated. The OUN 7 am sounding already has crazy low level shear, and pretty impressive early morning instability despite a 700 mb warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 3km EHI already up to 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 The OUN 7 am sounding already has crazy low level shear, and pretty impressive early morning instability despite a 700 mb warm nose. If you took away that cap at 700, todays potential would be screwed by an explosion of morning convection. Need that warm nose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 If you took away that cap at 700, todays potential would be screwed by an explosion of morning convection. Need that warm nose The proverbial loaded gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 3km EHI already up to 9. Sig Tor eff and fixed both 4 to 5... 2500-3000 SBCAPE... 8.5 C/KM ML Lapse Rates... -10 LI's... 1k EHI 6-8... 3km EHI 6-8... Sup Composite large area of 20... atmosphere is most def priming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Yeah, I think the northern one-third of the hatched area is out of play now. I would expect the SPC to reflect this with their next update. Yea, I wouldn't be surprised to see the hatched area trimmed back to the state line or perhaps a Ponca, to Nowata to Vanita line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 30, 2013 Author Share Posted May 30, 2013 The current and progged environment (NAM/RAP/GFS) over cntl/ern OK today and tonight are just unbelievable. I think it's probably the most impressive environment we've had all year. The number of storms will certainly be limited by the forcing, but a lone storm in this environment is going to have almost unlimited potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Ill be headed towards stillwater, ok shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 The current and progged environment (NAM/RAP/GFS) over cntl/ern OK today and tonight are just unbelievable. I think it's probably the most impressive environment we've had all year. The number of storms will certainly be limited by the forcing, but a lone storm in this environment is going to have almost unlimited potential. Any thoughts on how this ongoing convection will limit storms in the northern part of the MDT area? We've got friends/family in Bville and most of them aren't too weather aware. At this point I'm thinking (as already mentioend) that the ongoing convection moving across the state line and vicinity will put a damper on the tor potential up that far north....hope I'm right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 30, 2013 Author Share Posted May 30, 2013 Any thoughts on how this ongoing convection will limit storms in the northern part of the MDT area? We've got friends/family in Bville and most of them aren't too weather aware. At this point I'm thinking (as already mentioend) that the ongoing convection moving across the state line and vicinity will put a damper on the tor potential up that far north....hope I'm right. The biggest threat is clearly south of the state line and probably south of a Vinita-Ponca City line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 "@Jeff_Piotrowski Outflow boundary is stalling from Tulsa to Enid, OK intersection dry line just west of Enid expect explosive development after 2pm supercells tornadoes likely." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 The biggest threat is clearly south of the state line and probably south of a Vinita-Ponca City line. Thank you sir, that is in lock step with what I told them about 45 mins ago, we'll see what SPC says and how things unfold the next few hours. To those chasing today be safe...I'll probably be out tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Wednesday is history. Today is a whole new regime, mainly a strong jet max punching in aloft. Outflow boundary appears to finally be slowing down. I could see two targets for two different reasons today/Thursday. Friday has big potential as well if things align. Thursday/today: Strong jet max is somewhat straight; therefore, one might analyze the four quadrants. Oklahoma is in a "wrong" quad for enhanced lift. Also got subsidence behind morning wave. On the other hand if it behaves like a curved jet max then OK will light up big and bad. Instability is insane; one "needs" some of that subsidence early to reload the gun; and, low level directional shear will be crazy. The question is between: Right on the OFB closer to middle of jet max; or, first supercell south of OFB on DL for the more isolated play. OFB has shear but risk of cool pool. DL has instability but risk of wrong jet quad. Given slight UVV on models into all of Oklahoma, I slightly lean DL. One might hedge north though. Typically easier to correct south than to chase north. Friday: High-res models not really showing much south of a tail-end charlie. However the GFS op is showing isolated light precip south of line, into south-southwest Oklahoma. First jet exiting with new coming in. It's very subtle, but could get kissing jets over OK. Right rear (right entrance) of lead jet is upward motion. Next one coming in behind is curved, so it would definitely be lift. Lower level wind fields respond with little better surface low in OK on Friday. There is a path to Friday being the biggest day, but right now both appear excellent for chasers. Latest high-res guidance spares OKC metro isolated beast sup today, which is good news. Unlike last week, I can't get out there this time. However I'll be forecasting. Good luck and be safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Northern edge of MOD risk is now KS/OK border as others above posted about and expected on 1630 OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 The current and progged environment (NAM/RAP/GFS) over cntl/ern OK today and tonight are just unbelievable. I think it's probably the most impressive environment we've had all year. The number of storms will certainly be limited by the forcing, but a lone storm in this environment is going to have almost unlimited potential. I agree the environment is impressive but you think it's the most impressive all year? Besides some of the synoptic-scale features that you mention being a negative (or not if you want to scale out crap-convection), the surface winds are not exactly "backed" yet near the DL/OFB. The new GFS backs them around 00z, possibly a little earlier. Should be interesting, watching the low-level winds and remnant boundaries. I'm not saying things aren't impressive but I still say 5/19-20 looked more impressive. "@Jeff_Piotrowski Outflow boundary is stalling from Tulsa to Enid, OK intersection dry line just west of Enid expect explosive development after 2pm supercells tornadoes likely."[/size] As the new 1630z suggested, there are still some uncertainties WRT warming mid-levels. Also note the winds have yet to back appreciably anywhere near these intersecting boundaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 I never said we couldn't have a threat just commenting on conditions now....obviously if the atmosphere recovers it is game in and I just got out of a meeting and see an MDT up for my area so SPC isn't too concerned it seems... I have also seen several busts on days like today....not at all saying that is what will happen today. I will say I am far more concerned with tomorrow. RAZR 2 I see what you mean about tomorrow and I agree it looks nasty. I didn't mean to imply you were lessening the threat. I suppose I misunderstood what you meant by "wrung out." If you were merely suggesting "stability issues" from ongoing convection then I understand. I thought you meant it as "the atmosphere has been so active lately that it may not have anything left in it for today's threat" ... my mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Sounding taken at 1522z outside the NWC as part of the MPEX field program. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 30, 2013 Author Share Posted May 30, 2013 I agree the environment is impressive but you think it's the most impressive all year? Besides some of the synoptic-scale features that you mention being a negative (or not if you want to scale out crap-convection), the surface winds are not exactly "backed" yet near the DL/OFB. The new GFS backs them around 00z, possibly a little earlier. Should be interesting, watching the low-level winds and remnant boundaries. I'm not saying things aren't impressive but I still say 5/19-20 looked more impressive. As the new 1630z suggested, there are still some uncertainties WRT warming mid-levels. Also note the winds have yet to back appreciably anywhere near these intersecting boundaries. At this point, 5/20 certainly didn't seem more impressive than today. I like the progged low-level wind and instability profiles more today than I did for 5/19 and 5/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Tornado Watch coming shortly for SE KS/SW MO/NE OK/NW AR MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0877 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...OZARK PLATEAU CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 301644Z - 301815Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...LINE SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS WILL INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE. WW WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DISCUSSION...REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT MCS OVER SERN KS INTO FAR NRN OK HAS BEGUN TO TIGHTEN UP WITH UPDRAFTS FORMING ALONG THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. FARTHER SE...MORNING CLUSTERS HAVE INCREASED IN BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ACROSS ERN OK. WITHIN A RICHLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND POCKETS OF GREATER INSOLATION YIELDING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...THESE CONVECTIVE AREAS SHOULD FURTHER BLOSSOM DURING THE AFTERNOON. AREA VWP DATA DO DEPICT VEER-BACK-VEER DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES WHICH SHOULD TEND TO FOSTER CONTINUED CLUSTER/LINE MODE. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DOES EXIST TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 05/30/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_chip Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Looks like storms trying to fire along the cold front/dryline already to the SW of OK City. Cooler 700mb are invading from the west and could make for an early show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Initiation already SW of OKC near Lawton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 The current and progged environment (NAM/RAP/GFS) over cntl/ern OK today and tonight are just unbelievable. I think it's probably the most impressive environment we've had all year. The number of storms will certainly be limited by the forcing, but a lone storm in this environment is going to have almost unlimited potential. Not gonna lie, I'm not really impressed with the setup for today, or tomorrow. Disjointed WAA (shear) and CAPE regimes with the available forcing. We'll get storms for sure. But I bet similar to yesterday, that tornado reports are very few, and in fact, even hail reports aren't as notable as are damaging winds. Bet we see more blue on the reports maps again than anything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Tornado watch coming for the Metro, says very favorable for discrete supercells. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0878 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN OK...FAR NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 301720Z - 301945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES. DISCUSSION...TCU/CB HAS PERSISTED ALONG THE INTERSECTION OF THE EFFECTIVE DRYLINE AND LOW-LEVEL THERMAL AXIS. DESPITE FOCUS FOR LARGER-SCALE ASCENT SHIFTING NEWD/TENDENCY FOR MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUED HEATING OF A VERY RICHLY BUOYANT AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTENANCE OF INTENSIFYING UPDRAFTS ALONG THE DRYLINE AND PERHAPS THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS N-CNTRL OK. WITH AN ENLARGED HODOGRAPH EVIDENT IN THE PURCELL PROFILER...CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE INTO THE MID-LEVELS...SETUP WILL BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 05/30/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Not gonna lie, I'm not really impressed with the setup for today, or tomorrow. Disjointed WAA (shear) and CAPE regimes with the available forcing. We'll get storms for sure. But I bet similar to yesterday, that tornado reports are very few, and in fact, even hail reports aren't as notable as are damaging winds. Bet we see more blue on the reports maps again than anything else My windshield disagrees with the lack of hail reports yesterday. The reason you didn't get many hail reports was because most chasers stayed out of the hail. I ended up coring a storm that radar estimated had 1.5" hail and ended up getting a baseball to the windshield. Just saying, don't underestimate the hail. I bet ya if those cells were in more populated areas, you would have had many more hail reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Early initiation on the dryline again, ala 5/20. Climatologically, that isn't favorable for a major event in this part of the country. But, with rich moisture and high instability already in place, climatology could once again be defied. Mesonet currently depicts an area of localized backing of sfc winds -- wouldn't you know it -- around Cleveland/McClain Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 The Day 2 outlook is over 15 minutes late now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 I am amazed by the consistent quality of moisture we have had over the past few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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