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Plains tornado threat Mon 5/27-Fri 5/31


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In Grapevine TX and just had a legit severe thunderstorm blow through. Our radar in Arlington was showing 65-70 MPH just off the surface and it absolutely translated to severe criteria as it came through. No hail.

Local stations showing baseball and golfball sized hail photos from Lake Highlands and Lewisville.

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As SPC is thinking the predominant mode now will be wind and hail except for some possible isolated tors in south central OK with that LLJ.  The surface low is now 990 mb in se CO/sw KS, quite deep for this time of year.  I am more concerned about wind fields and shortwaves surrounding it tomorrow and Friday than I am for events this evening.

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Yup I saw a damaged car shortly after. Was just referring to what I had seen personally. Another big storm incoming with a shelf and a lot of lightning but this seems less severe than earlier with lighter winds.

Local stations showing baseball and golfball sized hail photos from Lake Highlands and Lewisville.

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As SPC is thinking the predominant mode now will be wind and hail except for some possible isolated tors in south central OK with that LLJ. The surface low is now 990 mb in se CO/sw KS, quite deep for this time of year. I am more concerned about wind fields and shortwaves surrounding it tomorrow and Friday than I am for events this evening.

Tomorrow should be much, much better for tornadoes. Also, tomorrow's storms should be fairly isolated, quite an improvement from today at least. Could be a potentially dangerous situation for Wichita, Kansas City, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and possibly Joplin. Not entirely sure though about the northern extent of the threat, maybe I-70 and areas south?
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Very healthy couplet on that cell.

 

Edit: Had one.

Maybe the best looking cell of the day.It is all alone near a SRH max.  If the atmosphere hasn't already been overturned too much that thing could really get cranking.

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Maybe the best looking cell of the day.It is all alone near a SRH max.  If the atmosphere hasn't already been overturned too much that thing could really get cranking.

 

Tornado reported east of Carter per Mike Phelps.

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Stay safe with night tors. Your chasecation has already been a spectacular success. As a spotter I am envious.

Thanks. Yeah we'd play it safe. We've chased at night a few times.. Never terribly fun but we got the good one near La Crosse KS May 25 last yr. storm needs some help as is it appears anyway.
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Squall line across NE OK and SE KS is doing damage. Just saw this report from NWS ICT:

 

Time: 2013-05-30 01:08 UTC
Event: 70 TSTM WND GST
Source: emergency mngr
Remark: emergency manager estimated 70 mph winds and reported damage in sedan and chautauqua as the storm moved through with downed trees. time of the report is estimated from radar. power is out in the county.

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Despite that today has seemingly under performed, still have gotten 20 tornadoes, with 270+ total reports of severe weather. That brings the total number of tornadoes from this "outbreak" (monday through today) to 88. That's pretty good, with possibly the two biggest days coming up, think it's going to be hard to beat those 32 tornadoes on Tuesday though in terms of tornadoes in a single day.

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Despite that today has seemingly under performed, still have gotten 20 tornadoes, with 270+ total reports of severe weather. That brings the total number of tornadoes from this "outbreak" (monday through today) to 88. That's pretty good, with possibly the two biggest days coming up, think it's going to be hard to beat those 32 tornadoes on Tuesday though in terms of tornadoes in a single day.

More than likely way less than 88. Multiple reports per tornado etc.
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More than likely way less than 88. Multiple reports per tornado etc.

 

Lol it was only 68 tornado reports in the first place, not 88. Also, yeah like you said, tornado reports do not constitute confirmed tornadoes. That one in KS yesterday probably had like 50 or more reports, although they weren't all logged for good reason.

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00z NAM is looking pretty potent for tomorrow. Has a nearly 70 kt jet streak at H5 punching into OK basically from the west-northwest with the dryline completely uncapped even through 00z and a solid 35-40+ kt LLJ feeding in there, 2500-3000 J/kg of SB/MLCAPE waiting there as well. I'm pretty curious in seeing what the WRFs are going to put out tonight.

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00z NAM is looking pretty potent for tomorrow. Has a nearly 70 kt jet streak at H5 punching into OK basically from the west-northwest with the dryline completely uncapped even through 00z and a solid 35-40+ kt LLJ feeding in there, 2500-3000 J/kg of SB/MLCAPE waiting there as well. I'm pretty curious in seeing what the WRFs are going to put out tonight.

 

It suggests rain and clouds and such stick around here for a long time tonight/tomorrow, probably will keep instability down, at least I hope. I'm still worried about Friday here though.

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Lol it was only 68 tornado reports in the first place, not 88. Also, yeah like you said, tornado reports do not constitute confirmed tornadoes. That one in KS yesterday probably had like 50 or more reports, although they weren't all logged for good reason.

Sorry, was using Unfiltered reports, for whatever reason they still have those set to be the default when looking at storm reports.
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Yeah, I think the turning/stretching shear profile (over central or eastern Oklahoma) is going to be good enough for a moderate risk. There should at least be a CAPE of 2000 J/kg (perhaps 3000 J/kg if you believe the GFS or the latest RAP run.) in Oklahoma. Outflow boundaries and cool temps from today's large # of MCSs of today may make it a little harder to forecast. This much current convection in the central /north plains would seemingly decrease lapse rates in these places, i.e. the atmosphere could be worked over. I could still imagine that CAPE values of over 1500 J/kg could exist in a lot of places north and east of Oklahoma.

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