Ground Scouring Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 The low stratiform storms W of Lawton, OK, are likely to go supercellular within the hour, given steady pressure falls and a localized convergence of wind aiding backing east of the dry line. This should bolster 0-3-km SRH and bulk shear, thereby favoring a mix of LWP and supercellular storms. The environment is becoming increasingly sheared as the mid-level shortwave impulse imparts divergence just upstream of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Jumping ahead a bit tomorrow/Friday, OUN put out some great stuff for these two days. THURSDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FOCUSED ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FORTHU AFTN. THE PRIMARY 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEGATIVELY TILTEDAND FOCUSED ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...FROM THE PAC NW THROUGH THE SRNPLAINS. IN RESPONSE... ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDING THE LARGER TROUGHWILL SWEEP OFF SERN CO...WITH THE DRY LINE MAKING A SURGEEASTWARD...THIS TIME INTO WRN/N CENTRAL OK. AGREEMENT FROM SHORTRANGE GUIDANCE WOULD PLACE IT SOMEWHERE JUST SHY OF AN ENID TOWEATHERFORD TO CROWELL TX LINE. BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR NWRN/N CENTRALOK SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS THROUGHTHE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WITH BACKING SFC WINDS NEAR THE SFCLOW THROUGH 00Z FRI...0-1 AND 0-3KM HELICITIES WILL INCREASE.OVERALL...WITH THE SURGING DRY LINE FOR FOCUSED LIFT AND DECENTDYNAMICS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS... AND TORNADOES LOOKS DECENT THU AFTN ACROSS NCENTRAL OK THROUGH SWRN OK AND FAR WRN N TX BEFORE THE DRY LINERETREATS BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. AT THE MOMENT...THE BESTPOTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL BE NEAR THE SFC LOW TRACK AND THEBEST SURGE IN THE DRY LINE...WHICH WILL BE ACROSS N CENTRAL OKTHROUGH W CENTRAL OK. ELSEWHERE...ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND THE OKCMETRO...THE DRY LINE WILL LIKELY STALL JUST WEST OF THEMETRO...NEAR EL RENO. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE AND EASTWARD...WILL BE CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL ANDDAMAGING WINDS. THROUGH THE EVENING...STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INTOA LINE...SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ASTHE SFC LOW LIFTS E/NE ONCE AGAIN.FRIDAY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVERIDES SEWRD AROUND THE PRIMARY 500MB TROUGH AS IT FINALLY BEGINSTO TRANSITION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE SFC LOW TAKING AMORE SOUTHWARD TRACK DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THIS WILL BRING THEWARM FRONT INTO PLAY ACROSS NRN AND NWRN OK...DROPPING SWRDTHROUGH THE AFTN JUST NORTH OF THE OKC METRO. WHILE OUT WEST...THEDRY LINE MAKES ANOTHER PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS WRN N TX AND S/SWRNOK. IN RESPONSE TO THE SFC LOW/WARM FRONT/DRY LINE COMBINATION...SFC WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BACK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... RESULTINGIN INCREASED O-1KM AND 0-3KM HELICITIES THROUGH. MID-LEVEL LAPSERATES WILL REMAIN STEEP FROM CENTRAL OK THROUGH WRN N TX...ANDDEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS ANDSUPERCELLS. AT THE MOMENT...THE GREATEST THREATS WILL BELARGE DAMAGING HAIL... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS... AND TORNADOES FROMNORTH CENTRAL OK THROUGH WRN N TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Bulgin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 At least three circulations on that line in TX, the northern most one looks pretty healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoresman Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Line appears to be breaking up at least a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 I'm going to keep an eye on that tail-end-charlie. May be trying to hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Looks like a bow echo has progressed through parts of Kansas, getting close to McPherson and Salina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 I'm going to keep an eye on that tail-end-charlie. May be trying to hook. Looks like it is acquiring some separation from the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Definitely some rotation with the tail-end Charlie, although a bit broad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Grand Island/York area in Nebraska has several tornado warnings now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Looks like it is acquiring some separation from the line.Also big spreads down there. But main play for now perhaps. SW still kicking east. See if more fires. Nice mammatus up here at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Grand Island/York area in Nebraska has several tornado warnings now Yeah pretty decent supercell cluster in that area, this area seems to do well a lot with strange wind profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 The tail end cell is conveniently at the furthest radius from three different radar sites ... Definitely distinct from the line though. Watch closely if it should bend a little more right ... good environment ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Yeah pretty decent supercell cluster in that area, this area seems to do well a lot with strange wind profiles. There's a pretty strong velocity couplet near McCool Junction. This could be a tornado right now. I always wanted to say "McCool Junction." also strong velocity couplet east of Broken Bow, Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 There's a pretty strong velocity couplet near McCool Junction. This could be a tornado right now. I always wanted to say "McCool Junction." also strong velocity couplet east of Broken Bow, Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 444 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL YORK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA... * UNTIL 515 PM CDT * AT 442 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF YORK....AND MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BENEDICT. THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE TORNADO WARNING PREVIOUSLY INEFFECT FOR NORTHWEST YORK COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 The York storm still with good velocity, suggesting a tornado still in progress. Looks like a tornado is also near Burwell NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 A great many of today's tornadoes so far are occurring in the broad swath of 5% tornado risk just like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 The York storm still with good velocity, suggesting a tornado still in progress. Looks like a tornado is also near Burwell NE. I guess this tornado could have tracked from Comstock to Burwell Nebraska. I have no way of knowing. Certainly hail indicators have been big, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 A friend says he sees some rising tags under the base of Tail End Charley, up NW of Childress. It just seems nothing down there really wants to take off, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 A friend says he sees some rising tags under the base of Tail End Charley, up NW of Childress. It just seems nothing down there really wants to take off, though. Interesting as watches go up in TX to the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Looks like that line in SW OK means business... warned for 80+ mph winds and wording states extremely damaging winds likely down by Comanche Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 There's a pretty strong velocity couplet near McCool Junction. This could be a tornado right now. I always wanted to say "McCool Junction." also strong velocity couplet east of Broken Bow, Nebraska. That couplet was basically over the holiday inn there near the interstate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover1991 Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 How is the threat looking for tomorrow? is it going to be the same deal as today meaning mostly linear storm modes or will it be more conducive for tornadoes? just asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 How is the threat looking for tomorrow? is it going to be the same deal as today meaning mostly linear storm modes or will it be more conducive for tornadoes? just asking. Well the wind fields will certainly be more conducive tomorrow (and Friday) to sustained supercell modes, we'll have to see how this convection through the night evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover1991 Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Well the wind fields will certainly be more conducive tomorrow (and Friday) to sustained supercell modes, we'll have to see how this convection through the night evolves. Oh okay thank you for answering my question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 In Grapevine TX and just had a legit severe thunderstorm blow through. Our radar in Arlington was showing 65-70 MPH just off the surface and it absolutely translated to severe criteria as it came through. No hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Yeah. 11 tornado reports in Nebraska; 1 landspout reported near Turkey, TX...2 hours ago. Meh. The NE stuff all looks cold air like from what I've seen. I mean its still a tor but eh. Messy. The hatched area seems to have failed. We should have gone south I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Looks like we're going to have some outflow boundaries in OK tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Some 70-80 kt wind reports with these lines in OK, the one in behind is moving at 70 mph, powerful bow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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