OKpowdah Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Honestly not too enthusiastic about the potential today. For that and other reasons, I'm not chasing. I think the best chance of a discrete supercell taking off will be somewhere in the area of the Childress,TX to Mangum,OK ... model guidance pointing to dry line bulging northeastward a little later this afternoon with a localized area of backed winds near the surface. Stuff north of there I think will get junky and zoom northeastward ... less than stellar chase material Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Day 2 OTLK out... 30% hatched C and NE OK (including all of OKC metro and Moore), SW MO (including Joplin), extreme NW AR, and SE KS.. upgrade to MOD risk poss tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Best convergence is further South along the dryline. I'm skeptical that the early convection NE of AMA won't do enough to warrant following and putting oneself out of position for later today isn't worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Best convergence is further South along the dryline. I'm skeptical that the early convection NE of AMA won't do enough to warrant following and putting oneself out of position for later today isn't worth it. Same. Definitely not chasing that. Wagons south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Prob going toward Arnett for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Looks like the dryline is firing now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Looks like the dryline is firing now Yeah, explosive development near AMA. We're gonna need some Panhandle Magic for anything good in the next couple hours if the RAP wind profiles are close to correct, though... kind of reminds me of 4/17 in SW OK, unfortunately. Already getting that strung-out reflectivity structure... blah. On the plus side, you really cannot ask for better than 65-67 F sfc dew points on the Caprock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Storms trying to fire West of DFW, not sure if they are surface based or not, as there was a warm nose at 750 mb on FWD 7 am sounding. Mid level winds were a bit chaotic, but 0-1km shear helicity looked quite good, if something surface based developed. See edit, they are launching one or more mid-day balloons... Edit to add from FWD THE LATEST18Z SOUNDING DATA FROM FWD LOOKS SUSPICIOUS COMPARED TO THE AMDARSOUNDINGS. ANOTHER FWD BALLOON IS BEING LAUNCHED FOR COMPARISON.CURRENT AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATING AT LEAST ANOTHER 5-7 DEGREESWARMING WOULD BREAK THE INVERSION COMPLETELY. NEVERTHELESS...THEAFOREMENTIONED FORCING SHOULD INCREASE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGEACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MID EVENING. WILLBEGIN WITH VCSH FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS...THEN GO VCTS AFTER MIDAFTERNOON WITH BEST CATEGORICAL CHANCES BETWEEN 6-10PM THISEVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Good summary of what I'm focusing on this evening: Focus on the Childress area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Yeah, explosive development near AMA. We're gonna need some Panhandle Magic for anything good in the next couple hours if the RAP wind profiles are close to correct, though... kind of reminds me of 4/17 in SW OK, unfortunately. Already getting that strung-out reflectivity structure... blah. On the plus side, you really cannot ask for better than 65-67 F sfc dew points on the Caprock. That looks like a lot of CAPE, and marginal shear. Too much CAPE for the shear makes multicells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Yep...that be the dl bulge! Sam, remember the 17z OUN sounding from 5/20? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Already a bunch of crapvection in Kansas... And things in Texas are looking Multicellular, and seems linear... Will need for stuff to fire well ahead of the dryline IMO. However, it does look like the WRF did pick up on this early junk in Kansas, and move it on to the north and east, and it develops into the eventual Squall Line. Good thing is that it develops widespread convection to the west of all this. EDIT: Looks like a CU field is developing to the west of DDC, could potentially get nasty in a few hours... But seeing all those messy storm modes to the east doesn't make things look too promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Stuff West of DFW should be surface based soon, and I like low level shear, mid levels still a touch chaotic. BUt it isn't terrible. Oh, West Kansas, not sure about tornadoes, mostly speed shear, but holy juicy mid level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Going to chill in Canadian a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Not to be a Debby Downer, but looking at the SPC RAP mesoanalysis product, 500 mb and 850 mb winds with a most unstable LI color overlay, there is very little change in direction between 850 mb and 500 mb winds in the South Plains, and most places even the speed shear isn't mind blowing.. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Not to be a Debby Downer, but looking at the SPC RAP mesoanalysis product, 500 mb and 850 mb winds with a most unstable LI color overlay, there is very little change in direction between 850 mb and 500 mb winds in the South Plains, and most places even the speed shear isn't mind blowing.. Just saying. If we are talking about currently, then yes that would make sense given we are in between shortwaves embedded within this larger scale trough. The second jet streak is currently entering the Four Corners region, and if it does reach the warm sector in time, it should help with the wind profile/bulk shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 If it wasn't so early I'd be tempted to meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 If it wasn't so early I'd be tempted to meh Yeah, I don't really like the current environment that these storms are in. I'm heading south and waiting for the dry-line bulge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Confirmed TOG 18 miles E of Hastings in NE... headed toward Harvard moving N at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 I would go up to Dodge City personally. That disturbance currently off to the west will probably be the trigger to potential tornadoes today. High helicity around there and things should light up when that dryline goes thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Rolling to the loner west of Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Tornado has lifted just north of Saronville NE in Clay County per spotters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Tor warn in the line south now prob rain wrapped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Looks like some possible rotation just south of Lefors as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Rolling to the loner west of Canadian Unless you see something rapturous on it, don't let yourselves get boxed out west of a line of hail cores. It's early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoresman Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Unless you see something rapturous on it, don't let yourselves get boxed out west of a line of hail cores. It's early. ^ this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Unless you see something rapturous on it, don't let yourselves get boxed out west of a line of hail cores. It's early.Yeah we will watch that. Chasing with Amos Magliocco right now so we shouldn't do too much stupid other than getting hit by a tornado.Looks junky. Dry line actually looks like it might try to fire more to the west from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Weird it looks bad low but it's striated up top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 US National Weather Service Norman Oklahoma350pm Update: all of the OKC metro area is in this tornado watch until 11pm. This is NOT the same situation as last week's central Oklahoma tornado watch! At this time, we are not expecting big isolated supercell storms. We expect the storms to be more linear, which usually means that hail and wind are the main threats. We could see a brief tornado embedded in some of the more intense storms, but this is not anything like May 19th or May 20th! Stay alert, and listen for warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 244 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 350 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ARDMORE OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 239...WW 240...WW 241...WW 242...WW 243... DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS WRN OK WHERE THE CAP HAS LOCALLY ERODED. CURRENT VAD/PROFILER DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VEER-BACK WIND PROFILE WHICH WILL LIKELY PROMOTE MIXED STORM MODES. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY BOW HEADS/SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030. ...MEAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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