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Plains tornado threat Mon 5/27-Fri 5/31

tornadotony

By tornadotony,
in Central/Western States

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Does radar show rotation?

Some on free NWS Doppler from LBB, AMA radar too close to the storm.  The fact the warning has been dropped means people with better displays (and are trained professionals) think the storm is currently non-tornadic.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

pretty sure that's why people watermark the crap out of all their stuff.. most of these "big name" startup sites would not be without their photos being passed around full of web addresses etc.

Exactly it was watermarked to give the person the credit who took the picture, plus it was pulled from Facebook, if said person didn't want it posted, putting it on FB is probably the worst spot to post it.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Still has some 65-70 dBz returns zooming in on free NWS radar from LUB/LBB, but large area of bright returns has shrunk, and the cell looks circular.

 

The rotation that can be seen from LBB is somewhat elevated, obviously, due to the distance between AMA and LBB.

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messier77

messier77

Posted
Posted

Too bad this forum doesn't have a "Like" feature. I agree, beautiful pics.

 

Thank you.

 

No tornadoes, but it was nice to finally be the only chaser within 200 miles of a storm, especially after the circus in Northern Kansas yesterday.   What a beautiful and relaxing chase.

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jcwxguy

jcwxguy

Posted
Posted

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z  

 

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/NORTHERN  

TX AND WESTERN/CENTRAL KS...  

 

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS TO  

MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY...  

 

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  

NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...  

   

..SYNOPSIS  

 

A VERY ACTIVE/POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS  

LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS  

AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO  

AMPLIFY OVER THE CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE  

TILT/EAST-NORTHEASTWARD EJECTING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH FROM  

THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS AND MO VALLEY BY LATE  

TONIGHT.  

   

..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST  

 

STRENGTHENING/BACKING MID-LEVEL WINDS ALONG WITH STEADY HEIGHT FALLS  

ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY COINCIDENT  

WITH INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS  

LIKELY TO DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO/FAR SOUTHWEST KS...WITH ANOTHER  

SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE NORTHEASTWARD IN VICINITY OF  

THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH  

PLAINS/DAKOTAS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SPATIALLY BROAD WARM  

SECTOR...GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S F SURFACE  

DEWPOINTS...WILL BE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS  

SURFACE LOW/DRYLINE AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS FRONT.  

 

CONCERNING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...SOME UNCERTAINTIES EXIST REGARDING  

THE SPECIFIC TIMING AND SPATIAL EXTENT/LOCATIONS OF SURFACE BASED  

DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER TODAY. FOR ONE...THE PLAUSIBILITY  

OF RELATIVELY EARLY DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS  

OK/NORTH TX BY THE 00Z NAM IS A BIT IN QUESTION...AND COULD POSSIBLY  

BE AN ARTIFACT OF THE NAM BMJ CONVECTIVE SCHEME. EVEN  

SO...APPRECIABLE FORCING FOR ASCENT COINCIDENT WITH INCREASINGLY  

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RELATIVELY  

EARLY TODAY...AND THIS SHOULD MAKE INCREASING SURFACE BASED DEEP  

CONVECTION LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. THIS INCLUDES POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT  

WITH THE WARM SECTOR /PENDING CLOUD COVER AND SPECIFIC  

DESTABILIZATION/...BUT A MORE CERTAIN SCENARIO MAY BE FOR SEVERE  

TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE THIS  

AFTERNOON/EVENING.  

 

REGARDLESS...POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SURFACE BASED SEVERE TSTM  

DEVELOPMENT APPEARS PROBABLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN TX  

PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX INTO WESTERN AND PERHAPS PARTS OF CENTRAL OK  

IN ADDITION TO WESTERN KS. SCATTERED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY  

LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A COUPLE  

POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT ACCENTUATED BY A  

DIURNALLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. A MORE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE IS  

MOST PROBABLE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE...WITH  

BACKING MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR LIKELY  

INDICATIVE OF A TENDENCY FOR CLUSTERING OR A MIXED-MODE /BEYOND THE  

INITIAL SEVERAL HOURS/ AS STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD. AS SUCH...THIS  

ACTIVITY MAY MERGE/CONTINUE EASTWARD TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS  

OF KS/OK AND PERHAPS NORTH TX...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL AND  

SOME TORNADO RISK /ESPECIALLY GIVEN A NOCTURNALLY INTENSIFYING LOW  

LEVEL JET/ CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST LATE EVENING IF NOT PARTS OF THE  

OVERNIGHT.  

 

FARTHER NORTHWEST...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE/CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF  

FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD LEAD TO A SEPARATE CORRIDOR OF SEVERE TSTM  

DEVELOPMENT /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ AND A SUBSEQUENT GENERAL EASTWARD  

PROGRESSION ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN KS AND NEB  

THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET  

THIS EVENING...STORMS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR MAY CONSOLIDATE/GROW  

UPSCALE AS THEY SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS KS/NEB TONIGHT WITH  

A CONTINUED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK.  

 

MEANWHILE...OTHER MORE ISOLATED...SEVERE TSTMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF  

MAINLY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR THE  

DRYLINE INTO ADDITIONAL PARTS OF WEST-SOUTHWEST TX. OTHER SEVERE  

TSTMS ARE ALSO PROBABLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AS  

CONSEQUENTIAL FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE WARM SECTOR THIS  

AFTERNOON/EVENING.  

   

..NORTHEAST STATES INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND  

 

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX WILL CONTINUE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY  

OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WITH ONE OR TWO OTHER  

CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED IMPULSES/ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW ALSO FACTORS LATER  

TODAY. TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DIURNALLY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AS AT  

LEAST GLANCING FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN  

CONJUNCTION WITH A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX. AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE  

STREAMS INTO THE REGION...STORMS MAY BE QUASI-FOCUSED ON A WARM  

FRONT AND/OR TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE SUSTAINED  

MULTICELLS/ORGANIZED LINEAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS  

SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...AT LEAST 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER  

SHEAR IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT SOME  

SUPERCELLS. THUS...SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT  

ACQUIRE UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE  

FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  

 

 

 

 

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andyhb

andyhb

Posted
Posted

D3...

 

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  0241 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013    VALID 311200Z - 011200Z    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO LOWER  GREAT LAKES...     ..SYNOPSIS    SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE  U.S./CANADA BORDER AS THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS OPENS AND  MOVES DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THE EAST COAST  RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THIS OCCURS AND ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE  WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH  THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL SETTLE SEWD INTO A VERY MOIST AIRMASS FROM  THE SRN PLAINS NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. LIFT  ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE FRONT  WILL BE AUGMENTED BY DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE OPENING UPPER WAVE.     ..ERN OK ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO LOWER MI    SEVERAL DAYS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO  INLAND ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT ABUNDANT LOW  LEVEL MOISTURE OVER AN EXTENSIVE REGION. MODEST TO STRONG WLY FLOW  ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME/EML FROM THE SRN  PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO  STRONG DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD  INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT AND NEAR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW  BOUNDARIES FROM PRIOR DAY STORMS AS HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT  ACT TO LOCALLY OVERCOME CAPPING/INHIBITION. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE  ORDER OF 30-50KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE  LATER AFTERNOON WITH BOTH LINEAR AND CELLULAR/SUPERCELLULAR MODES  POSSIBLE. HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH SOME  POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS OR TWO EVOLVING INTO EARLY SATURDAY JUNE 1.  GREATER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INCLUDED WHERE STRONG  INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO COEXIST WITH A VERY CONSISTENT  SIGNAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION IN A VARIETY OF LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.    ..CARBIN.. 05/29/2013
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