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Plains tornado threat Mon 5/27-Fri 5/31


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So let's give a recap of some of today's events.

 

1. A large tornado in NE KS.

2. A large wedge in Central KS doing loops for like 40 minutes (caught by many of the AmWx chaser crew).

3. A damaging multi-vortex tornado in NW PA.

4. Two large tornadoes in MI, one with a sig on radar that really didn't suggest a lot at all.

5. A possible nocturnal hailstorm approaching Amarillo.

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So let's give a recap of some of today's events.

 

1. A large tornado in NE KS.

2. A large wedge in Central KS doing loops for like 40 minutes (caught by many of the AmWx chaser crew).

3. A damaging multi-vortex tornado in NW PA.

4. Two large tornadoes in MI, one with a sig on radar that really didn't suggest a lot at all.

5. A possible nocturnal hailstorm approaching Amarillo.

Sounds like the typical slight risk day....

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The BMJ convective scheme in the 12km NAM tends to overdo it when mid/high level moisture ends up in the same general area as steep lapse rates. That may account for the widespread early convection that has been consistent in the 12km NAM solutions for tomorrow. That mid/high level moisture (in the form of cloudiness) may still impede destabilization even if the early initiation doesn't pan out, but if the warm sector remains relatively undisturbed until mid-late afternoon and CAPE can get into the 2500 or higher range tomorrow, there will be a pretty potent tornado environment across the moderate risk area, given the strength of the low-level jet. 

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Sounds like the typical slight risk day....

 

Well, tbh with events so scattered like this you can't really do anything but broad-brush the risk areas like was done, unless there was an obvious place that screamed moderate/high risk, which there wasn't.

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Well, tbh with events so scattered like this you can't really do anything but broad-brush the risk areas like was done, unless there was an obvious place that screamed moderate/high risk, which there wasn't.

 

I agree. Certainly not faulting SPC for the job they did today. The NWS offices handled the situations well (atleast the KS situations) from what I seen. 

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So let's give a recap of some of today's events.

 

1. A large tornado in NE KS.

2. A large wedge in Central KS doing loops for like 40 minutes (caught by many of the AmWx chaser crew).

3. A damaging multi-vortex tornado in NW PA.

4. Two large tornadoes in MI, one with a sig on radar that really didn't suggest a lot at all.

5. A possible nocturnal hailstorm approaching Amarillo.

 

Here's the tornado that hit around Flint earlier

 

post-6059-0-86722600-1369800104_thumb.jp

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Considering that photo is from a friend of mine, be very careful about posting copyrighted material without permission. 

 

Deleted, although I should probably tell the same thing to the person who posted this on TalkWeather (i.e. where I got it from).

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Deleted, although I should probably tell the same thing to the person who posted this on TalkWeather (i.e. where I got it from).

pretty sure that's why people watermark the crap out of all their stuff.. most of these "big name" startup sites would not be without their photos being passed around full of web addresses etc.

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Will be really interesting to see tomorrow play out, has a lot of potential to either bust, or be a regional severe weather outbreak. Good low-level jet in the late afternoon setting the stage for something possibly significant, however instability might be an issue in relation to the extreme instability we've had recently...

Also, the 00Z GFS is showing a potentially volatile environment in Eastern KS/ Western MO, and Northeastern OK for Thursday. With pretty good low-level shear, and workable instability (>3000 J/KG.) Main issue IMO is the best instability isn't really juxtaposed with the best shear... However it does appear that a narrow area has the possibility of seeing a significant severe weather event. But, it's still a bit too far out to determine exact details at this time, seeing that the models will likely make a few changes in timing/location.

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Overall wouldn't be too surprised to see just a high-end slight risk tomorrow...

 

There's already a large D2 moderate out for tomorrow and there's not really a lot suggesting that won't maintain itself in the new outlook.

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Confirmed TOG 45 and Sauncy, per PD dispatch.

 

yea.

 

AT 1136 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE REPORTING A TORNADO NEAR 45TH AVENUE AND 
SONCY ROAD. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF 
AMARILLO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1139 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

 

TXC375-381-290500-
/O.CON.KAMA.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-130529T0500Z/
POTTER TX-RANDALL TX-

1139 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

 

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL RANDALL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL POTTER COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 1136 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE REPORTING A TORNADO NEAR 45TH AVENUE AND
SONCY ROAD. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF
AMARILLO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

 

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
  AMARILLO...

 

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 27 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 115 AND 123.

 

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 62 AND 80.

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