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Plains tornado threat Mon 5/27-Fri 5/31


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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0842
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0552 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS THRU NRN MO AND ADJACENT SRN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 233...

VALID 282252Z - 290015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 233 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES...INCLUDING A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO...WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ANOTHER FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS.


DISCUSSION...INTENSE DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTH OF FALLS CITY NEB AND
BETWEEN CONCORDIA AND SALINA. THIS IS OCCURRING IN THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF VERY
WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHICH COINCIDES WITH WHERE THE AXIS OF
STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING NOSES INTO HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR OVER THE LOWER EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. BENEATH 50
KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...SHEAR WILL REMAIN MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A
FEW TORNADOES...BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE AND GROW
UPSCALE INTO AN EVOLVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS
INTO THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER AREA TOWARD 01-03Z.
 

 

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
554 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0552 PM TORNADO 4 W BENNINGTON 39.03N 97.67W
05/28/2013 OTTAWA KS TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE WEDGE NEARLY STATIONARY.


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