CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 What the hell is the Euro getting us into? What a hideous pattern. I don't know...but I sure hope it doesn't work out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Although the euro ensembles did have a pretty strong signal of a troughing later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Nothing screams summer like have a ridge centered over the Four Corners! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 I don't know...but I sure hope it doesn't work out like that. It has highs in the 50s on Thursday and Friday next week. I doubt that happens...but still, even murky with highs in the 60s sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 I don't know...but I sure hope it doesn't work out like that. Paying the piper, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 The Euro has a trough bias in the east beyond D5 or 6. ~ 2/3 of the verification has demonstrated less trough ultimately results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 The Euro has a trough bias in the east beyond D5 or 6. ~ 2/3 of the verification has demonstrated less trough ultimately results. Yeah that's true, but the ensembles have a signal too...obviously less aggressive though. Either way, looks coolish to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Yup Forecaster Kev says "we toss." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Yeah that's true, but the ensembles have a signal too...obviously less aggressive though. Either way, looks coolish to me. Hopefully its that upper 60s/lower 70s and dry type of cool versus BDF murk in the 50s and 60s. But that signal has been getting a bit uglier the closer we get. Hopefully it stays more muted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Yeah that's true, but the ensembles have a signal too...obviously less aggressive though. Either way, looks coolish to me. My interpretation of the operational version is less pessimistic ... I see that as a dry cyclonic flow with temps aloft still supporting low 70s. If that is cool, sure -- but I call that a bargain! But again, wouldn't surprise me if the heights are too dug out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 My interpretation of the operational version is less pessimistic ... I see that as a dry cyclonic flow with temps aloft still supporting low 70s. If that is cool, sure -- but I call that a bargain! But again, wouldn't surprise me if the heights are too dug out. For which days? The end of the run was east winds and rain. The ensembles definitely has your version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Quite the Sanoran heat dome by D10... Let's hope that doesn't get released like a solar ejecta... Meh, D10 Euro is about as stochastic as can be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 Scooter gets so worried and hung up on east winds lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 For which days? The end of the run was east winds and rain. The ensembles definitely has your version. Here is the D8 from PSU E-Wall: I don't see an E wind here...nor much rain. More like a low-level "col" with an unimpressive cyclonic curvature aloft ... one that weakens going forward at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Here is the D8 from PSU E-Wall: I don't see an E wind here...nor much rain. More like a low-level "col" with an unimpressive cyclonic curvature aloft ... one that weakens going forward at that. That weak area of low pressure to our southwest is enough to turn winds onshore and create an ugly LL convergence zone over SNE which spits out qpf and keeps temps really cool. Hopefully its just a mesoscale thing that isn't persistent on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Scooter gets so worried and hung up on east winds lol I did say it's probably aggressive, but verbatim is was horrible...comical solution. However as we stated..the ensembles have a cool signal too and the 12z EC ensembles reinforce that statement. Not as bad as the euro op, but footsteps getting louder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 That weak area of low pressure to our southwest is enough to turn winds onshore and create an ugly LL convergence zone over SNE which spits out qpf and keeps temps really cool. Hopefully its just a mesoscale thing that isn't persistent on future runs. Don't think so... The sun would diabatically destroy that weak of a feature by neutralizing the entire domain (that's the 8am chart), and there is very little forcing aloft to overcome. Aside, there is a different PGF in every location on that map so not sure I get to the same ugly LL conv and onshore flow prose, given that depiction. But, like I've been saying, the Euro doesn't verify very well beyond D5.5 so it's all going to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 To the delight of Kev, 18z NAM continues to pump some higher dews into the area on Saturday with a westerly track...mid to upper 60's: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Scooter gets so worried and hung up on east winds lol It's like living in Seattle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 To the delight of Kev, 18z NAM continues to pump some higher dews into the area on Saturday with a westerly track...mid to upper 60's: I'm wondering if the NW track of the NAM is a kind of relic of its bias in the winter with storm tracks being in fact too far NW beyond 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 I'm wondering if the NW track of the NAM is a kind of relic of its bias in the winter with storm tracks being in fact too far NW beyond 48 hours. It's pretty much at the point where we toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 I'm wondering if the NW track of the NAM is a kind of relic of its bias in the winter with storm tracks being in fact too far NW beyond 48 hours. It's been consistently NW, even though the 18z run shows some signs, especially in the moisture fields aloft, of a track not quite as drastically inland. It does seem reminiscent of winter biases with amped up storms passing further NW than most of the other guidance. I wonder how the initialization has been as well. Even the short-range seemed to be too far NW with respect to "landfall" in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Don't think so... The sun would diabatically destroy that weak of a feature by neutralizing the entire domain (that's the 8am chart), and there is very little forcing aloft to overcome. Aside, there is a different PGF in every location on that map so not sure I get to the same ugly LL conv and onshore flow prose, given that depiction. But, like I've been saying, the Euro doesn't verify very well beyond D5.5 so it's all going to change. During day 8 and 9 a nice area of low pressure forms though. You can thank a good s/w for that...it's almost like an inv trough. Of course it's in la la land, but just stating what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Not to mention the center relocating east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 During day 8 and 9 a nice area of low pressure forms though. You can thank a good s/w for that...it's almost like an inv trough. Of course it's in la la land, but just stating what it shows. Yeah it intensifies after that 192 panel. It would definitely be an ugly day if that verified. The PG increased from the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Yeah, just my impression. I think even if that weak of a low develops, it doesn't have much sensible impact because the overall PG is so weak. Aside, the D9 panel shows an arm of high pressure into NYS state at 8am, and that is going to improve rapidly after that. Not sure I see any low creating an ugly day. We'll see. There's no way this is an ugly day in SNE from where I am sitting... But again, I highly doubt the next run shows this deep of a height field tapestry by this time tomorrow. It usually doesn't as a bias for this particular model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 18z NAM brings the heaviest QPF associated with that wave west of here. But we do get some antecedent overrunning between 40 and 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 NAM up to its old tricks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 LOL...the 18z NAM must be almost as worthless as the NOGAPS. We toss the NAM 365 days a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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