Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

For Those About To Sweat ...We Salute You..Heat and Humidity


Damage In Tolland

Recommended Posts

I think he is referring to my comment about New England as a whole sticking out into the Atlantic...one of the reasons I was downplaying the drought threat around our parts.

 

Sultan signals (flooding) seem to be a much bigger threat for our region than droughts with the Atlantic to our south and east.

gotcha. i've should have guessed his comment was a jab at someone. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

speaking of going overboard...big severe day in NE somewhere around the 11th/12th? 

 

 

I'm actually liking thunder chances through mid month in oscillatory pattern en route.  Shallowed out eastern trough flexes every 2 to 2 and a half days, and we have cyclical wave migration with active jet in the mean.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

UKMET really sends an argument in Kevin's favor.   Just inferring from the crappy product freebies ... takes a well defined transitioning TC, absorbing it into the baroclinic axis, and that scoots it along the MA/NY border.   That would swash some rich DP across the area if that happened.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It strikes me that sustained heat this early is quite rare. Lets turn it around. Do we expect day after day in the 20s in early December?No but we do expect quite a bit of snow and if we don't get it we get worried about losing a winter month

That's true. Morch sucks

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Climate is harder for some to grasp than it is for other folks.climate is a long term average which means 90 in June can happen as easily as 20 in December. Reality is normal happens rarely.

Yes. But a high of 20 12-1 is 25 above normal for some. For that reason, it's far less likely vs a month later. Same as heat now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting and exciting discussion from BOX this afternoon with regards to the weekend: BY FRI AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
MS VLY CAPTURES A TROPICAL WAVE OR INVERTED TROF FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THEN ADVECTING NORTHEAST UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
SAT. IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL PLUME WITH THIS TROUGH AS GEFS ENSEMBLES
SUGGESTING A CONNECTION AS FAR SOUTH AS CUBA WITH PWAT STD OF +2 TO
+3! THUS A FIREHOSE OF WATER UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A FLOOD
THREAT FRI-SAT. IN FACT THERE IS A RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS
THIS WAVE WITH TROPICAL ORIGINS INTERACTS WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE. DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME RANGE TO PINPOINT LOCATION OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL. HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
MAY OCCUR ACROSS NY STATE BENEATH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS
INDICATES THE TROPICAL WAVE MAY BECOME MORE OF A BAROCLINIC LOW AS
IT APPROACHES OUR LATITUDE WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP TO THE NORTHWEST OF
ITS CIRCULATION. IN FACT THE NEW 12Z GEFS OFFER A 20-30% CHANCE OF 4
INCHES OF RAIN IN A 48 HR PERIOD FROM 18Z FRI TO 18Z SAT ACROSS
NORTHERN NY STATE! THIS IS A VERY STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
GIVEN THE TIME RANGE AND NUMBER OF ENSEMBLES. THE OPERATIONAL 12Z
GFS HAS STORM TOTAL 10+ INCHES ACROSS THIS AREA WITH ONLY 1-3 IN
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A SWATH OF
3-4 INCHES ACROSS NY STATE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
WITH 3-4 INCHES ACROSS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Total SOS signature. We'll see it could be quite impressive given the tropical connection and time of year.

Vermont may have some issues...water has been running high for like the last two weeks after a record wet May at BTV (over 120 year data-set). The whole northern third of the state has had like 6-12" of rainfall in the last month...most of it since mid-May.

Water tables are high and the ground is saturated. If we do like 2-3" or even more in spots, flooding could be decent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Vermont may have some issues...water has been running high for like the last two weeks after a record wet May at BTV (over 120 year data-set). The whole northern third of the state has had like 6-12" of rainfall in the last month...most of it since mid-May.

Water tables are high and the ground is saturated. If we do like 2-3" or even more in spots, flooding could be decent.

 

I was thinking that as well. The CT River could really see some sharp rises too if the northern half of the basin gets totally drenched.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...