Tropopause_Fold Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 all of new england except the cape is 2+ hmmm...weird. i have it as 3+ from s of the NY/PA border on NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 hmmm...weird. i have it as 3+ from s of the NY/PA border on NE.that's also true... i'm just pointing out that even the non jackpot areas are 2+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 So are folks in error to think this thing brings relatively high dewpoint air of mid- upper 60's with it on strong SE flow on Saturday? Are you talking home stations or ASOS? I think everyone is right in a way...there is no doubt that for much of the rainfall it looks pretty cool with dews 55-60 and temps right in that ballpark too. That's like Friday through Saturday morning. Then it looks like dews come up right as the rain is lifting northeast on like Saturday afternoon...and I mean its not hard to do that with a really moist boundary layer and southern origins of airmass. But Friday afternoon/night and Saturday morning isn't going to be a muggy rain. The bulk of this will be fairly chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 that's also true... i'm just pointing out that even the non jackpot areas are 2+ oh ok. yeah. it's a very large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 What a beaut of an afternoon--almost early fall-like. 69.9/56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Maybe you and I are misreading? Some are saying its a cold rain it seems Depends what you guys are talking about as cold/ mild. Think 62/58 and heavy rain. Is that cool or mild? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Maybe you and I are misreading? Some are saying its a cold rain it seems Its not going to be a warm rain friday or saturday morning...maybe a brief muggy feel as the low tracks almost overhead saturday afternoon before the drier airmass behind it is advected in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 which day Phil? over the distant interior...it's starts thursday. for most of the region its a friday into saturday deal. based on that euro run at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 3, 2013 Author Share Posted June 3, 2013 Its not going to be a warm rain friday or saturday morning...maybe a brief muggy feel as the low tracks almost overhead saturday afternoon before the drier airmass behind it is advected in.I wonder if we can nudge the low track a bit west of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Its not going to be a warm rain friday or saturday morning...maybe a brief muggy feel as the low tracks almost overhead saturday afternoon before the drier airmass behind it is advected in. Yeah there are two times in play here... the bulk of the rain is like 50-65F from north to south in New England. It looks like on the 12z ECM that from I-90 or RT 2 northward, stays in the 50s for the duration of the rains. Most of CT is in the low to mid 60s during the rain. If it makes him feel better to have it pouring at 63/62 rather than 57/56, well more power to him if he can spin that into a "100 times better" than the alternative. Now if we are talking about after the rain ends or towards the tail end as we go through Saturday, then I agree, it could get briefly muggy. It looks like the ECM has a late day temp spike into the 70s in CT. If that's what we are talking about, then I think everyone acknowledges that there will likely be a muggy period, especially with really wet saturated grounds, the home PWS should record some high dews to satisfy that fetish on Saturday evening. But while its actually raining and for 90% of the rain, its not a 72/69 type of set-up...however he may get his 72/69 later on Saturday evening after the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Wow, SS on the Euro. That would be inches of rain with high PWAT tippy air shoved over the WF with tropical origins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 3, 2013 Author Share Posted June 3, 2013 Yeah there are two times in play here... the bulk of the rain is like 50-65F from north to south in New England. It looks like on the 12z ECM that from I-90 or RT 2 northward, stays in the 50s for the duration of the rains. Most of CT is in the low to mid 60s during the rain. If it makes him feel better to have it pouring at 63/62 rather than 57/56, well more power to him if he can spin that into a "100 times better" than the alternative. Now if we are talking about after the rain ends or towards the tail end as we go through Saturday, then I agree, it could get briefly muggy. It looks like the ECM has a late day temp spike into the 70s in CT. If that's what we are talking about, then I think everyone acknowledges that there will likely be a muggy period, especially with really wet saturated grounds, the home PWS should record some high dews to satisfy that fetish on Saturday evening. But while its actually raining and for 90% of the rain, its not a 72/69 type of set-up...however he may get his 72/69 later on Saturday evening after the rain. Thats all we were trying to say. With a huge outdoor event Sat evening and deep muggy conditions like that with some late day sun that is perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 I wonder if we can nudge the low track a bit west of us? It looks like it goes west of you on some of the models like the GGEM... however we've gotta bump this post in like December when you are looking to keep every single low to the east Speaking of which, if this was winter we'd be talking about how its going to be very hard to get this to go west and the secondary will develop off the coast to keep the cold locked in over the interior... so we will have to look for that to happen. With the high to the north, there's no way this goes too far west. Triple point development? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Thats all we were trying to say. With a huge outdoor event Sat evening and deep muggy conditions like that with some late day sun that is perfect light winds, recent rain, high dews, evening --> heavy heavy bug bites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Thats all we were trying to say. With a huge outdoor event Sat evening and deep muggy conditions like that with some late day sun that is perfect Yeah if that's what you are looking for, I totally could buy that muggy feeling (I'll leave out the "deep" wording, lol) on Saturday afternoon and evening...in fact I'd probably expect it by like 4pm on Saturday. I actually think it'll be hard for it not to feel muggy especially if there's a widespread like 2-5 inch rainfall and soggy ground. If there's any breaks in sun Saturday afternoon/evening it'll just turn the ground level into a steam bath. Lots of mist/fog though probably, too, with so much low level moisture and light winds. Rainforest type stuff for a few hours before the winds try to go NW behind the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 3, 2013 Author Share Posted June 3, 2013 light winds, recent rain, high dews, evening --> heavy heavy bug bites.Huge party in town to benefit woman with leukemia who is having trouble with costs of treatments. Of course it involves a pool, a dj and plenty of brews but all proceeds go to her, so just hoping for a summer feel after 5-10 inches of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 It's not going to be widespread 50s for a high as some progs indicated earlier. Talking sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 It's not going to be widespread 50s for a high as some progs indicated earlier. Talking sne. Euro probably only has upper 50s in the interior for Friday...maybe 60-62F. Its pretty nasty actually. Saturday isn't quite as bad. The GFS seems to be on its own not showing much of any CAD on Friday...or at least much weaker CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 I know it's early right now, but this has the classic look of a SE NY mtn region to maybe wrn CT and up into VT and SW NH deluge look. Obviously room for wobbles, but has that look. That's not including that almost PRE look that Phil said either...that is further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 I know it's early right now, but this has the classic look of a SE NY mtn region to maybe wrn CT and up into VT and SW NH deluge look. Obviously room for wobbles, but has that look. That's not including that almost PRE look that Phil said either...that is further NW. yeah someone could get smoked. don't want to go overboard with the system in its infancy stages, but by the same token can also see some of the writing starting to show up on the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 speaking of going overboard...big severe day in NE somewhere around the 11th/12th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 speaking of going overboard...big severe day in NE somewhere around the 11th/12th? And then cutoff low for days and days overhead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 yeah someone could get smoked. don't want to go overboard with the system in its infancy stages, but by the same token can also see some of the writing starting to show up on the wall. What a turnaround from the damaging drought we had this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 And then cutoff low for days and days overhead? hopefully for Ryan the euro is wrong and he doesn't have to drive 600 miles E to escape ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 What a turnaround from the damaging drought we had this spring. dry begets downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 3, 2013 Author Share Posted June 3, 2013 What a turnaround from the damaging drought we had this spring.Yeah we knew sticking out into the ocean this turnaround could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Yeah we knew sticking out into the ocean this turnaround could happen sticking out into the ocean?? did you move to the Cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 3, 2013 Author Share Posted June 3, 2013 sticking out into the ocean?? did you move to the Cape?Doesnt all of SNE stick farther east into the Ocean than NYC south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 sticking out into the ocean?? did you move to the Cape? I think he is referring to my comment about New England as a whole sticking out into the Atlantic...one of the reasons I was downplaying the drought threat around our parts. Sultan signals (flooding) seem to be a much bigger threat for our region than droughts with the Atlantic to our south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Doesnt all of SNE stick farther east into the Ocean than NYC south? sure if the coast bent back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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