Deck Pic Posted June 20, 2013 Author Share Posted June 20, 2013 I've done worse...will see where it ends up after all this heat...of course only local departure really matters for true verification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 Your call for June has been really good. You still thinking average for July and +1 to +2 for August? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 20, 2013 Author Share Posted June 20, 2013 Your call for June has been really good. You still thinking average for July and +1 to +2 for August? I see no reason to change it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 I think we will finish around +1.3 I don't think that is a bad call, though not great Rick Grow, who gave the rebuttal to my CWG outlook, went +2 to +3 (though closer to +2) on the map he issued 3 days before June 1st His CONUS map will be really bad...he got the whole idea of the month wrong, though he will end up doing decent in our backyard I think I definitely "won" the month...I will post verification in a few days... On to July where I went Normal and he went +2 to +3 in his map he issued 2 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 I think we will finish around +1.3 I don't think that is a bad call, though not great Rick Grow, who gave the rebuttal to my CWG outlook, went +2 to +3 (though closer to +2) on the map he issued 3 days before June 1st His CONUS map will be really bad...he got the whole idea of the month wrong, though he will end up doing decent in our backyard I think I definitely "won" the month...I will post verification in a few days... On to July where I went Normal and he went +2 to +3 in his map he issued 2 days ago Mentioned it before that your personal call of +1 to +2 will turn out excellent. When someone says "average/normal" I assess that as a value range of -0.5 to +0.5. I go with slightly above/slightly below as +0.5 to +1. I go with above as +1 to +2 and well above as >+2. I would grade the "average/normal" call in a +1.2 month as C/C+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 Mentioned it before that your personal call of +1 to +2 will turn out excellent. When someone says "average/normal" I assess that as a value range of -0.5 to +0.5. I go with slightly above/slightly below as +0.5 to +1. I go with above as +1 to +2 and well above as >+2. I would grade the "average/normal" call in a +1.2 month as C/C+. mostly agree...I think missing my "range" by 0.8 isnt bad....plus I will nail the average max....I'd probably go C+/B-...I got screwed by low temps, though I accounted for that so I have no real excuse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 29, 2013 Author Share Posted June 29, 2013 I think we have a shot at +1.1 Today was a -0.5 tomorrow maybe a 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 1, 2013 Author Share Posted July 1, 2013 June - +1.3 Maxes - +0.2 Mins - +2.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 June - +1.3 Maxes - +0.2 Mins - +2.3 Bullseye call for you on range. you and I were talking about as early as mid May that this just was not going to be another torrid summer, lots of highs in the 88-93 range, not really below average but slightly above and as you posted it was the mins that held things up in the + to any degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 5, 2013 Author Share Posted July 5, 2013 mins are going to kill me again in July in a sticky se ridge pattern with persistent muggy southerly winds and a warm river.. I need a pattern shift...might get one in 7-10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 16, 2013 Author Share Posted July 16, 2013 I am in pretty bad shape...should be +2.5 to +3 by end of the weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 19, 2013 Author Share Posted July 19, 2013 we are +0.4 on the maxes so far....I'll have to decide after the summer is over, how much I want to spin my outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted July 19, 2013 Share Posted July 19, 2013 we are +0.4 on the maxes so far....I'll have to decide after the summer is over, how much I want to spin my outlook at least the soupy air has kept us from getting to 100 so you might be able to spin that aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 29, 2013 Author Share Posted July 29, 2013 we are +0.4 on the maxes so far....I'll have to decide after the summer is over, how much I want to spin my outlook July will probably finish 0 or +0.1 on maxes....mins have hurt this outlook..I will spin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 29, 2013 Author Share Posted July 29, 2013 Temperatures June: Average - so-so July: Average - mediocre August: 1 to 2 degrees above average - who knows Overall: Average to 1 degree above average - perhaps not bad? Number of 90-degree days for June/July/August: 25-30 (Normal is 31) - looking solid maybe Number of 100-degree days: 0 - looking good Longest Streak of 90+: 6-8 days - A+ Precipitation Somewhat above normal (125% of normal) - idea was right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 I think your forecast has been pretty darn good so far, Matt. Even if we end up above normal this month, it doesn't "feel" above normal since most of that departure is from high min temps. Although DCA might sneak in more 90+ days than the rest of us with some 90-91s where most of the region is 86-89, I'm thinking (hoping?) that we only have a handful of widespread 90s days ahead of us. Might get up to 25 90+ days at DCA, but really don't see 30 unless something really changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Temperatures June: Average - so-so July: Average - mediocre August: 1 to 2 degrees above average - who knows Overall: Average to 1 degree above average - perhaps not bad? Number of 90-degree days for June/July/August: 25-30 (Normal is 31) - looking solid maybe Number of 100-degree days: 0 - looking good Longest Streak of 90+: 6-8 days - A+ Precipitation Somewhat above normal (125% of normal) - idea was right? Mr Z. What caused the difference between your personal forecast and this one? For example personally you went with July as -1 to -2 while CWG you went average(which to me is -0.5 to +0.5) Also, even though it was not you who so stated, I cannot agree that an "average" call for June or July is "pretty darn good" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 29, 2013 Author Share Posted July 29, 2013 Mr Z. What caused the difference between your personal forecast and this one? For example personally you went with July as -1 to -2 while CWG you went average(which to me is -0.5 to +0.5) Also, even though it was not you who so stated, I cannot agree that an "average" call for June or July is "pretty darn good" I did the personal one earlier and did it quick....this is the one I care about..the 1st was for fun......I agree with you to some extent...I do think the maxes help me....but I have no excuse and will have to grade myself fairly...we will have to see about August, but I was correct in assessing that this wouldn't be a brutal summer like the last 3....I will do a full grading as usual at the end of the year...KA has done the best so far of anyone I have read or seen.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 1, 2013 Author Share Posted August 1, 2013 So Far June: +1.3 Maxes: +0.2 Mins: +2.3 July: +1.4 Maxes: -0.1 Mins: +3.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 1, 2013 Author Share Posted September 1, 2013 Bullseye on overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 1, 2013 Author Share Posted September 1, 2013 Temperatures June: Average - so-so July: Average - mediocre August: 1 to 2 degrees above average - who knows Overall: Average to 1 degree above average - perhaps not bad? Number of 90-degree days for June/July/August: 25-30 (Normal is 31) - looking solid maybe Number of 100-degree days: 0 - looking good Longest Streak of 90+: 6-8 days - A+ Precipitation Somewhat above normal (125% of normal) - idea was right? I'll do a more detailed grading for CWG but Monthlies C/C+ Overall A Bonus categories A Overall grade B/B+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Temperatures June: Average - so-so July: Average - mediocre August: 1 to 2 degrees above average - who knows Overall: Average to 1 degree above average - perhaps not bad? Number of 90-degree days for June/July/August: 25-30 (Normal is 31) - looking solid maybe Number of 100-degree days: 0 - looking good Longest Streak of 90+: 6-8 days - A+ Precipitation Somewhat above normal (125% of normal) - idea was right? I prefer numeric values as opposed to text so I am left to conclude that "average" is -0.5 to +0.5. June and July I would both give a C+/B- to, August a D- for an overall C/C- on the monthlies. Overal seasonal temp.l was a bullseye, A+. Raifnall call of somewhat above average was A/A-. #90's still tallying but looks like an A. I think your personal forecast was better but this was a good one, overall B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 2, 2013 Author Share Posted September 2, 2013 I prefer numeric values as opposed to text so I am left to conclude that "average" is -0.5 to +0.5. June and July I would both give a C+/B- to, August a D- for an overall C/C- on the monthlies. Overal seasonal temp.l was a bullseye, A+. Raifnall call of somewhat above average was A/A-. #90's still tallying but looks like an A. I think your personal forecast was better but this was a good one, overall B Thanks. And 90s were just for JJA. Not whole year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I did well... http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/10/30/grading-our-2013-summer-outlook/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 You rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 You rock i do...hopefully I bust horribly this winter...I wonder when Rick Grow will grade the summer outlook he put out the day after mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I did well... http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/10/30/grading-our-2013-summer-outlook/ I like the dude in the comments that just decided to give a grade on how good summer was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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