phlwx Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 We're in the infamous "see text" for tomorrow. Last second upgrade to slight on Thursday? Parameters are solid -- there's enough there for severe if we had a decent amount of sunshine. Cape is north of 1000 in Central PA, LI's are good, the parameters are supportive but we're battling cloud cover. How much (if any) sun we get will go a ways to determine if storms can reach severe criteria. PWATS are north of 1.5 most of the day, flirting with 1.75 on the 0z GFS in South Jersey tomorrow evening. Heavy rain is definitely a player for tomorrow & tomorrow night. Could see some 2" totals in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Something to "track," finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Wouldn't rule out some action this eve/tonight particularly N+W. Should have plenty of instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 edited the title to include today since parts of the area are under a slgt risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 got a high cape/low shear environment to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 052413-PWA.jpg We're in the infamous "see text" for tomorrow. Last second upgrade to slight on Thursday? Parameters are solid -- there's enough there for severe if we had a decent amount of sunshine. Cape is north of 1000 in Central PA, LI's are good, the parameters are supportive but we're battling cloud cover. How much (if any) sun we get will go a ways to determine if storms can reach severe criteria. PWATS are north of 1.5 most of the day, flirting with 1.75 on the 0z GFS in South Jersey tomorrow evening. Heavy rain is definitely a player for tomorrow & tomorrow night. Could see some 2" totals in spots. Pressure falls are also supportive, with the 1008mb isobar down to the Mason Dixon line intersecting w/ > 65F dew points. I think the upgraded slight risk will probably be from MD northeastward with the highest probability in PA/NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Out by state college: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 They have a town out there called "Jersey Shore"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 They have a town out there called "Jersey Shore"? Ahhhhh Yea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 At this point, flash flooding seems to be the big threat here and not severe. Battling cloud cover could determine what happens. Any breaks in the clouds could make things Interesting, but that seems more isolated as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 ^ I see that NAM stamp there, you dirty, rotten... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 At this point, flash flooding seems to be the big threat here and not severe. Battling cloud cover could determine what happens. Any breaks in the clouds could make things Interesting, but that seems more isolated as of now. yup. Flooding should be the main concern with the high pw's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Slight risk shifted east a little: This was just for the evening and overnight*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted May 23, 2013 Author Share Posted May 23, 2013 ...and there it is. Not shocked we got bumped up into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Battling cloud cover: have some modest cape: and decent shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Just a PSA/reminder about the RAP: Unrealistic super-adiabtic lapse rates right at the surface will lead to it modeling much higher CAPEs than will actually come to fruition - as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Just a PSA/reminder about the RAP: Unrealistic super-adiabtic lapse rates right at the surface will lead to it modeling much higher CAPEs than will actually come to fruition - as always. haha. I know it runs too high, and i should of noted it. Just showing the areas where the possibility of some thunder could be heard. This cloud cover is a real b&(CH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 haha. I know it runs too high, and i should of noted it. Just showing the areas where the possibility of some thunder could be heard. This cloud cover is a real b&(CH Probably caused from the temp contrast of the land and the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 haha. I know it runs too high, and i should of noted it. Just showing the areas where the possibility of some thunder could be heard. This cloud cover is a real b&(CH Probably caused from the temp contrast of the land and the river. Hahahha whenever I think it gets old, boom! Nope! Nice clearing skies in upper Darby for now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Plenty of sunshine and 80/70 here in Bensalem, supposedly. I think everyone's PWS runs a bit high on DP (and KPNE was only reporting 65 last hour). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 everyone is loved but us SE PA folks lol.. so far, all we've seen are popcorn type showers/storms. The weak cap isn't helping, but thats to be expected with the subtropical flow i suppose. Losing faith in any severe type storms later, maybe garden variety at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Partly to mostly sunny now.Temp 80/Hum 71/ DP 70. However it doesn't feel that bad out w/the breeze. Better than yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noctilucent Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 We have just been assaulted with heavy rain in the past 10 minutes. Had < .1 in the gauge....now, well over 0.5" in 10 minutes. Overwhelming the gutters, the flower beds.....sheesh. Well, at least the car is washed. A little thunder and lightning, which would have been impossible to see. The "precipitable water" has precipitated. Edit......I squished out to the rain gauge.....exactly 0.7"......so quite a quick hitting deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 1.11 at the course in wayne, pa so far... .08 here in gilly, which all came in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Barely a drop here, and I feel like I'm going to die after cutting the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 The complex in MD bears watching, imo. Nothing severe expected, of course, but it's at least a bit more organized than what we've been dealing with so far today. We're still decently unstable. SPC Mesoalaysis is showing 1000-1500 J/Kg of CAPE still widespread west of the Delaware, which account for the RAP's warm/unstable bias, probably means we've got a solid 500-750 J/Kg to work with. Low-level shear is increasing just a bit too. 0-1 km shear vectors have magnitudes greater than 20 knots now northeast of the city thanks to some backing of the surface winds. That won't really help with overall storm organization since deep-layer shear is still essentially nil, but it might mean that we see an occasional TOR pop up like they have in VA this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 2.45 so far today of rain and pouring again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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