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Convection & Thunderstorm Discussion May 21-24


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NAM had 1.37" of rain for NYC through Sunday morning.

Not for NNJ or NYC or anywhere else for that matter, it was awful. 12z NAM was still likely underdone. KDIX radar estimates already showing pockets of estimated precip exceeding 1" over parts of northern NJ. Upton radar agrees.

 

6z NAM

 

nam_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif

vs 12z NAM

 

nam_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif

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Not for NNJ or NYC or anywhere else for that matter, it was awful. 12z NAM was still likely underdone. KDIX radar estimates already showing pockets of estimated precip exceeding 1" over parts of northern NJ. Upton radar agrees.

 

6z NAM

 

 

vs 12z NAM

 

 

 

 

12z NAM has 1.37" of rain for NYC through Sunday.

End of discussion.

 

12z NAM from today through Sunday:

 

NYC: 1.37"

EWR: 1.50"

BDR: 1.33"

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12z NAM has 1.37" of rain for NYC through Sunday.

End of discussion.

 

12z NAM from today through Sunday:

 

NYC: 1.37"

EWR: 1.50"

BDR: 1.33"

Why because you said so? You completely ignored my reasoning. This region covers a heck of a lot more area then just NYC. Regardless, the NAM will bust on the low end.

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Why because you said so? You completely ignored my reasoning. This region covers a heck of a lot more area then just NYC. Regardless, the NAM will bust on the low end.

I posted EWR, NYC and ISP soundings.

Not a colorful map.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

136 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...

WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

* AT 132 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

BEDFORD...OR NEAR MOUNT KISCO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

RIDGEFIELD...GEORGETOWN...DANBURY...BETHEL AND NEWTOWN

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0.48" of rain in 10 minutes here. Temp plummeted to 72F. Sun came out while it was still raining.

Feels like Florida.         

I'm a bit surprised they didn't hoist a flash flood watch with all of the training occuring. We've already had several food advisories and flash flood warnings.

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