IsentropicLift Posted May 23, 2013 Author Share Posted May 23, 2013 And now the sun is out here, didn't expect that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Seeing breaks of sunshine here. Latest visible shows breaks in cloudcover NYC SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Yea temps already at forcasted high here in Queens 74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 23, 2013 Author Share Posted May 23, 2013 Any sun or clearing should help destabalize. There is a pocket of 40kt+ of shear over northern and eastern PA which should continue to swing this way. SBCAPE is now in excess of 1500 J/KG over northern NJ and surroundiung areas. This could be quite a day for severe weather, supercell composite of 2 showing up near Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Seeing breaks of sunshine here. Latest visible shows breaks in cloudcover NYC SW. Can confirm it as well. Breaks in cloud cover here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 I wonder if today could be one of those surprise severe days, our worst usually happens when it's not obvious. Also could we be seeing a prolonged and major heat wave starting later next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 The 12z OKX sounding has forecast SBCAPE and LI 1432 J/kg and -5. With 0-6km shear at 30kt. That more that I expected out there, at this time. The 12z HRRR has convection forming NNJ and LHV between 15z and 18z. So I think severe t-storm watch could be issued for areas N&W by early afternoon: Edit: There's already some showers forming Western NJ that will may hamper our instability: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 I wonder if today could be one of those surprise severe days, our worst usually happens when it's not obvious. Also could we be seeing a prolonged and major heat wave starting later next week? I don't think it would really be a surprise. Thunderstorms have been in the forecast for days with isolated severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Any sun or clearing should help destabalize. There is a pocket of 40kt+ of shear over northern and eastern PA which should continue to swing this way. SBCAPE is now in excess of 1500 J/KG over northern NJ and surroundiung areas. This could be quite a day for severe weather, supercell composite of 2 showing up near Philly Vis loop has a bunch of junk out there. Looks to be hanging tough south and s/w of the metro area. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_PA/anim8vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Just looking radar, there already some showers developing over Western NJ. This might erase some of our instability, if this increases.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Just looking radar, there already some showers developing over Western NJ. This might erase some of our instability, if this increases.. They seem to be increasing in coverage and intensity especially over Somerset county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 They seem to be increasing in coverage and intensity especially over Somerset county. Maybe they will go severe with the instability already in place. SPC seems that think that too: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0779 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE UPPER MID-ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 231523Z - 231800Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...MONITORING FOR AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL HAZARD WITH INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS FAR ERN PA/NRN NJ. A WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY WHERE GREATER CLUSTER/LINEAR ORGANIZATION IS APPARENT. DISCUSSION...AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM NEAR THE ABE/TTN TO 20 NW EWR AREA AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OFF THE 12Z APG/WAL RAOBS HAVE BEEN BREACHED WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S IN 15Z METARS. AMIDST A PLUME OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS...MLCAPE HAS ALREADY REACHED 500-1000 J/KG. MODERATELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WIND PROFILES WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A FAST UPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WHICH MAY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS PRIMARILY PRODUCING SPORADIC DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..GRAMS/KERR.. 05/23/2013 ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... -------------------- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Some clearing is still trying to push north through Central NJ to the south of this weak convection. I think we'll need that to push north before we can start talking about any legit severe threat. The stuff over NJ now is probably unlikely to turn strong or severe given the current environment. But it looks like most of it is starting to move north and west of NYC. If we can open the door for a little more thermodynamic support, we could be in business this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Some clearing is still trying to push north through Central NJ to the south of this weak convection. I think we'll need that to push north before we can start talking about any legit severe threat. The stuff over NJ now is probably unlikely to turn strong or severe given the current environment. But it looks like most of it is starting to move north and west of NYC. If we can open the door for a little more thermodynamic support, we could be in business this afternoon. I think this too. The 13z HRRR has this moving out into Hudson Valley and more convection developing further SW, the later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 I think this too. The 13z HRRR has this moving out into Hudson Valley and more convection developing further SW, the later this afternoon. One problem could be the firehose type deal coming from the southeast and associated clouds. That could muck up the warm sector and the lift could start triggering what i would like to call crapvection. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Torrential downpour in Florham Park right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 One problem could be the firehose type deal coming from the southeast and associated clouds. That could muck up the warm sector and the lift could start triggering what i would like to call crapvection. We'll see. I see that happening too. CU is already popping up and streaking over lower half of NJ. I wish we had more cap: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Very low CIN values for a classic severe threat. The atmosphere is so buoyant that showers and thunderstorms are already ongoing at this hour, and that is usually a tell tale sign that this will be primarily a hvy rain / isolated severe type day. Generally we like to see at least a weak to moderate CAP to prevent morning/midday contamination by scattered convection. Bulk shear is modest as are low level lapse rates. Instability parameters aren't impressive, and more sunshine would help destabilize things further. However, as it stands, it looks like more widespread convection by evening but generally isolated severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Winds at the surface are certainly increasing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Skys are starting to clear here in NNJ, hoping this will help the destabilization process and increase the instability parameters. In any event looks to be an active afternoon with heavy rain/isolated severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Just got clipped by a storm. Had moderate to heavy rain for about 10 minutes before letting up. Before it started to rain, there were two close lightning strikes, one of which simply sounded like a loud 'pop' with no rumbling at all. After that, there was no thunder at all. Currently the sun is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 That was some incredible rain rates for a few minutes, wow. Some thunder as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 23, 2013 Author Share Posted May 23, 2013 Thunder and lightning and lots of downpours here in Ramsey over the past hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 23, 2013 Author Share Posted May 23, 2013 They just upgraded to a warning, they did an EAS activation and the whole 9 yards FLASH FLOOD WARNINGNJC003-031-NYC079-087-119-231830-/O.NEW.KOKX.FF.W.0003.130523T1700Z-130523T1830Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDFLASH FLOOD WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY100 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... ROCKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... PUTNAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...* UNTIL 230 PM EDT...* AT 1257 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED FLASH FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM YORKTOWN HEIGHTS TO HAWTHORNE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PEEKSKILL TO PARAMUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALLCREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSESAS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OFRAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAYYOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN UPTONNY.&&LAT...LON 4125 7409 4134 7397 4140 7396 4147 7390 4123 7361 4082 7413 4086 7420 4100 7430$$JMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 23, 2013 Author Share Posted May 23, 2013 I for one never believed the NAM, for a model that is supposed to be good for convection, they had this area only getting 0.50"+ over the next 3 days. We're already over that. The 12z NAM more than trippled amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Lots of sun here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Pretty significant street and stream flooding in Nyack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Pretty significant street and stream flooding in Nyack. amazing....and 10 miles east, nothing at all.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 I for one never believed the NAM, for a model that is supposed to be good for convection, they had this area only getting 0.50"+ over the next 3 days. We're already over that. The 12z NAM more than trippled amounts. NAM had 1.37" of rain for NYC through Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 23, 2013 Share Posted May 23, 2013 Same as John, clearing out here after a brief downpour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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