IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 While we obviously won't have to worry about anything like our friends out in Oklahoma over the next day or so, the potential certainly exists for multiple rounds of storms which could pack a punch, including later today. SPC had us earlier just SE of the see text area with a 2% prob for tornados and a 5% threat for hail and damaging winds. Tomorrow a slight risk area remains in place to our west. One of the limiting factors would be ongoing morning convection which could hinder destabilization. We need to watch carefully to see how much if any destabilization that we can get. Here is the latest day 2 outlook from SPC NY/PA/WV/OH/NERN KY/THE WRN MD PANHANDLE... CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY RESIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL ACT TO HINDER DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREA...EXPECT AN AFTERNOON INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY. STRENGTHENING OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE -- WHILE TEMPERED BY THE MODEST DESTABILIZATION IN MOST AREAS...BANDS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE -- THUS JUSTIFYING CONTINUATION OF SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA. The 00z SPC WRF had a pretty nice squall line forming over upstate NY and then dropping southward tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 The 12z 4km NAM has convection along the pre-frontal trough tomorrow afternoon. We'll have some instability and perhaps some modest shear: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 What are we thinking for this afternoon? Cape looks good along with decent mid level lapse rates in NNJ, but shear is non existent. Hopefully front from north pushes close enough for a trigger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 What are we thinking for this afternoon? Cape looks good along with decent mid level lapse rates in NNJ, but shear is non existent. Hopefully front from north pushes close enough for a trigger Best chance of t-storms looks over Hudson Valley and CT, closer to the front. The 14z HRRR has convection there later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 SPC updated area just north of us to slight chance and added 5% wind and hail to metro area. So slight hope. I have a better shot up in Sussex Co late this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2013 Author Share Posted May 21, 2013 New day 1 outlook from SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2013 Author Share Posted May 21, 2013 Anyone notice that the SBCAPE is thru the roof today? The problem is wind shear is at virtually zero. As a matter of fact we're looking great on every svr parameter except shear, is that shear over New England forecasted to drop south at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Anyone notice that the SBCAPE is thru the roof today? The problem is wind shear is at virtually zero. As a matter of fact we're looking great on every svr parameter except shear, is that shear over New England forecasted to drop south at all? By Wednesday, but most definitely Thursday, but that'll be coming from the Cold Front itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 We have some modest bulk shear to work with today, about 20-25kts or so. SBCAPE is building, especially from NJ on west as the fog and clouds burn off and surface heating begins. Still a good bit of CIN to contend with as well. Lapse rates are not quite as strong as they were yesterday but they should be enough to get things going. A few cells have already popped to the west of Port Jervis and will be heading towards southern NY state over the next few hours. SPC has placed the entire area under a slight risk with 15% probs for both hail and dammaging winds. The storms that formed yesterday over New England were quite severe with some tornadic activity as well as some large hail and damaging winds. Some of our best severe events have occured when it wasn't overally obvious that conditions were ideal, so hopefully today continues that trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 Lots of activity now firing south of the other storms all in a line into eastern PA. Right a long the axis of best instability, perhaps thunderstorm coverage will be more widespread this afternoon then thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 Those storms crossing into Sullivan County are likely about to go severe, it's hard to tell because that area is in a bit of a radar hole but a spots of 40kt estimated winds are showing up on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 That cell west of Binghamton is really going to town now, just went severe, and has some 70dbz echos with it, probably dropping some large hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0768 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND....NERN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 221531Z - 221730Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH MAINLY A HAIL THREAT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...A WARM AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH CONTINUED HEATING...CREATING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. 12Z ALB SOUNDING SHOWS MODERATELY STRONG FLOW AND A SUFFICIENTLY LONG HODOGRAPH FOR A FEW LONG LIVED STORMS CAPABLE MAINLY OF HAIL. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. WHILE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE DISORGANIZED...COVERAGE MAY WARRANT A WATCH. ..JEWELL/KERR.. 05/22/2013 ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 41007524 41347621 41977635 42467639 43107612 43657555 44037471 44027358 43767292 43287264 42577262 42097301 41677339 41187421 41007524 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 New outlook trims back the slight risk to interior areas. 5% for hail and damaging wind near the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 Watch just out of our immediate area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Tornado warning sullivan county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 Tornado warning sullivan county The couplet is just about gone now but it's still impressive looking on radar, could spin back up. The cell behind it is looking rather bullish as well. It also seems to be a little bit more of a right mover, perhaps that could bring it a bit closer to the area. Edit: Couplet is back now, so hard to tell trying to use the free NWS radars, especially in that area. Not great coverage up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 Tornado warned cell starting to make a right turn, probably won't be enough to get it far enough south south to reach any of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 Wow that couplet is really tightning and strengthening, wouldn't be surprised if it did indeed pop a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Wow that couplet is really tightning and strengthening, wouldn't be surprised if it did indeed pop a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 Shame that small cluster of cells came in on the southwest side and disrubted it. Nothing else to impressive out there currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 The western cell now has some rotation with it. It has a chance as it's pretty isolated now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Shear is still really poor today for any sort of severe thunderstorms in the immediate area. Interior locations will probably see at least some severe as the SPC highlighted above. Most models have the action coming tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 Shear is still really poor today for any sort of severe thunderstorms in the immediate area. Interior locations will probably see at least some severe as the SPC highlighted above. Most models have the action coming tomorrow. Shear profiles have diminished. Earlier we had some pockets of 20-30kts of effective bulk shear. Now we have 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 New Severe T-storm warning for Ulster county. That cell his heading SE and might clip N. Orange County. Now appears to have weakened and turning more east into Dutchess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 Wow that couplet is really tightning and strengthening, wouldn't be surprised if it did indeed pop a tornado. Thats some pretty rugged terrain up there as well. Would make for an interesting storm chase lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 22, 2013 Author Share Posted May 22, 2013 Thats some pretty rugged terrain up there as well. Would make for an interesting storm chase lol.. When those storms first started firing today they had some decent shear profiles to work with and some modest instability. Now the instability is on the increase and the shear is non existent. Perhaps tomorrow things will come into better play for us, but SBCAPE looks to be a limiting factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted May 22, 2013 Share Posted May 22, 2013 When those storms first started firing today they had some decent shear profiles to work with and some modest instability. Now the instability is on the increase and the shear is non existent. Perhaps tomorrow things will come into better play for us, but SBCAPE looks to be a limiting factor. Yeah those storms are just missing to my north.. Coming awfully close to areas like Pine Bush/Walden/Marlboro areas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 23, 2013 Author Share Posted May 23, 2013 SPC has placed the western half of the area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms today. 15% wind, 5% hail and 2% tornado risk. Flash flooding will also be a risk today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 23, 2013 Author Share Posted May 23, 2013 Downpour has commenced here in Ramsey, no thunder or lightning or wind SBCAPE is already > 1000 J/KG over all of northern NJ and we do have some modest shear profiles to work with today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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