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Convection & Thunderstorm Discussion May 21-24


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While we obviously won't have to worry about anything like our friends out in Oklahoma over the next day or so, the potential certainly exists for multiple rounds of storms which could pack a punch, including later today.

 

SPC had us earlier just SE of the see text area with a 2% prob for tornados and a 5% threat for hail and damaging winds.

 

Tomorrow a slight risk area remains in place to our west. One of the limiting factors would be ongoing morning convection which could hinder destabilization. We need to watch carefully to see how much if any destabilization that we can get. Here is the latest day 2 outlook from SPC

 

day2otlk_0600.gif

 

NY/PA/WV/OH/NERN KY/THE WRN MD PANHANDLE...
   CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY RESIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT
   RISK AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL ACT TO HINDER
   DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION.  HOWEVER...AS
   THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCE EWD
   ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREA...EXPECT AN AFTERNOON INCREASE IN
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY.  STRENGTHENING OF THE CONVECTION WILL
   BE AUGMENTED BY STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS IT
   SPREADS ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.
   THEREFORE -- WHILE TEMPERED BY THE MODEST DESTABILIZATION IN MOST
   AREAS...BANDS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
   AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE -- THUS
   JUSTIFYING CONTINUATION OF SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA.
 

 

The 00z SPC WRF had a pretty nice squall line forming over upstate NY and then dropping southward tonight

 

refd_1000m_f23.gif

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What are we thinking for this afternoon? Cape looks good along with decent mid level lapse rates in NNJ, but shear is non existent. Hopefully front from north pushes close enough for a trigger

 

Best chance of t-storms looks over Hudson Valley and CT, closer to the front. The 14z HRRR has convection there later this afternoon.

 

s45aqh.jpg

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Anyone notice that the SBCAPE is thru the roof today? The problem is wind shear is at virtually zero. As a matter of fact we're looking great on every svr parameter except shear, is that shear over New England forecasted to drop south at all?

 

sbcp.gif?1369162135803

 

By Wednesday, but most definitely Thursday, but that'll be coming from the Cold Front itself.

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We have some modest bulk shear to work with today, about 20-25kts or so. SBCAPE is building, especially from NJ on west as the fog and clouds burn off and surface heating begins. Still a good bit of CIN to contend with as well. Lapse rates are not quite as strong as they were yesterday but they should be enough to get things going. A few cells have already popped to the west of Port Jervis and will be heading towards southern NY state over the next few hours. SPC has placed the entire area under a slight risk with 15% probs for both hail and dammaging winds. The storms that formed yesterday over New England were quite severe with some tornadic activity as well as some large hail and damaging winds. Some of our best severe events have occured when it wasn't overally obvious that conditions were ideal, so hopefully today continues that trend.

 

eshr.gif?1369234997002

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 mcd0768.gif

      MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0768   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1031 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013      AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND....NERN PA      CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE       VALID 221531Z - 221730Z      PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT      SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH MAINLY A HAIL   THREAT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.      DISCUSSION...A WARM AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO SRN   NEW ENGLAND WITH CONTINUED HEATING...CREATING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY   FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. 12Z ALB SOUNDING SHOWS MODERATELY   STRONG FLOW AND A SUFFICIENTLY LONG HODOGRAPH FOR A FEW LONG LIVED   STORMS CAPABLE MAINLY OF HAIL. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.   WHILE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE DISORGANIZED...COVERAGE MAY WARRANT A   WATCH.      ..JEWELL/KERR.. 05/22/2013         ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...      LAT...LON   41007524 41347621 41977635 42467639 43107612 43657555               44037471 44027358 43767292 43287264 42577262 42097301               41677339 41187421 41007524 
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Tornado warning sullivan county

The couplet is just about gone now but it's still impressive looking on radar, could spin back up.

 

The cell behind it is looking rather bullish as well. It also seems to be a little bit more of a right mover, perhaps that could bring it a bit closer to the area.

 

Edit: Couplet is back now, so hard to tell trying to use the free NWS radars, especially in that area. Not great coverage up that way.

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Shear is still really poor today for any sort of severe thunderstorms in the immediate area. Interior locations will probably see at least some severe as the SPC highlighted above. Most models have the action coming tomorrow.

Shear profiles have diminished. Earlier we had some pockets of 20-30kts of effective bulk shear. Now we have 0.

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Thats some pretty rugged terrain up there as well. Would make for an interesting storm chase lol..

When those storms first started firing today they had some decent shear profiles to work with and some modest instability. Now the instability is on the increase and the shear is non existent. Perhaps tomorrow things will come into better play for us, but SBCAPE looks to be a limiting factor.

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When those storms first started firing today they had some decent shear profiles to work with and some modest instability. Now the instability is on the increase and the shear is non existent. Perhaps tomorrow things will come into better play for us, but SBCAPE looks to be a limiting factor.

 

Yeah those storms are just missing to my north.. Coming awfully close to areas like Pine Bush/Walden/Marlboro areas..

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