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May 21st Severe Weather Obs/Discussion


andyhb

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Another moderate risk in effect for Tuesday...

 

SPC WRF is showing some strong updraft helicity signatures in the Arklatex tomorrow afternoon/evening.

 

njsYPBT.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  1259 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013    VALID 211200Z - 221200Z     ..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SW AR  SE  OK...NW LA...CNTRL TX AND NE TX...    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN  PLAINS...OZARKS...MID MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...     ..SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/MID-MS VALLEY    AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE  SRN PLAINS TODAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS  CNTRL OK AND WCNTRL TX. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS  THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F RESULTING IN  MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE  FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS ERN OK  WHERE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE MAY EXIST THIS  MORNING. WITH SFC HEATING...NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO  INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM WRN AR SWWD INTO  NORTH TX AROUND MIDDAY. THE MODELS QUICKLY EXPAND THUNDERSTORM  COVERAGE WITH AN MCS ORGANIZING AND MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE MODERATE  RISK AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND  MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK  AREA WHERE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE.    FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/WED FROM LITTLE ROCK SWWD TO AROUND THE  DALLAS FORT WORTH METROPLEX SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 4000 J/KG  WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 45 TO 55 KT. THIS ALONG WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE  RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS  WITH LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER  WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...THE  MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AS  THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES COULD OCCUR  NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL JET AS BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR BECOMES MORE  FAVORABLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS SUGGEST CELLS MAY BE  DISCRETE AT THE START OF THE EVENT WITH A TRANSITION TO A  SQUALL-LINE. THIS WOULD MAKE THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT INCREASINGLY  DOMINANT AS A LINEAR MCS ORGANIZES EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR THIS  REASON...AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE  MODERATE RISK AREA.     ..GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY    SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY NEWD  INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE  EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE  EXTENDING NNEWD FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO LOWER MI. SFC  DEWPOINTS ACROSS SRN IL...NW IND AND LOWER MI SHOULD BE IN THE MID  60S F RESULTING IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. MODEL FORECASTS  INITIATE STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH  STORMS MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE  INSTABILITY AXIS WEST OF DETROIT AND NORTH OF INDIANAPOLIS AT 21Z  SHOW MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE WITH STEEP  LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THIS  ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE AS CELLS INCREASE IN  COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN ENHANCED  SEVERE THREAT ACROSS LOWER MI TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SFC LOW AND ON  THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. FOR THIS REASON...AN ENHANCED WIND  DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS IN LOWER MI  LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR  WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS.     ..NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS    AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN  MTNS. IN SPITE OF THE RIDGE...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO  DEVELOP FROM PA NEWD ACROSS CNTRL NY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE  IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THE MODELS APPEAR TO MOVE A DISTURBANCE  OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WHICH WOULD HELP WITH CONVECTIVE  INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN SPITE OF THE  WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...THEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED  WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD BE  SUPPORTIVE OF A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT.    ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 05/21/2013
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Andy, I do not like the look of just the simulated WRF (4-KM).  It is definitely conductive of tornadoes.  I'd post some maps, but I can't since they're paid.  I'm using Weatherbell's, so maybe Ryan has or will post them on his twitter soon.  Lets hope something like today doesn't happen again.  I noticed some cape in areas of Texas at or over 4000j/kg.

You're much smarter with this severe stuff though, maybe it's not as bad as it looks?

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Well, if the SPC WRF is on the right track, then we might have some problems today, I checked some hodographs from the 00z GFS and they were fairly universally looping upon an increase in the LLJ today. There does seem to be a bit of a veer-back-veer profile today, so we'll have to see if that affects storm characteristics and/or mode. The thermodynamic environment is still very potent, it's been awhile since I personally have seen a single synoptic system be able to tap such a potently unstable environment for such an extended period of time. The area from the DFW area earlier on and then east along the I-30 corridor towards Texarkana and perhaps approaching Little Rock later on, will need to be watched. Obviously with yesterday in mind, it only takes one to create a disaster.

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Well, if the SPC WRF is on the right track, then we might have some problems today, I checked some hodographs from the 00z GFS and they were fairly universally looping upon an increase in the LLJ tomorrow. There does seem to be a bit of a veer-back-veer profile today, so we'll have to see if that affects storm charateristics and/or mode. The thermodynamic environment is still very potent, it's been awhile since I personally have seen a single synoptic system be able to tap such a potently unstable environment for such an extended period of time. The area from the DFW area earlier on and then east towards Texarkana and perhaps approaching Little Rock later on, will need to be watched.

 

Okay thanks!  I noticed the SPC mentioned the models showing the storms starting out as discrete cells before turning into mainly wind threats.  If today ends up being worse than yesterday, especially with Dallas involved, I'm officially turning into a prepper and building a city underground.  What you mention about the LLJ strengthening is ominous too and I noticed that it wanted to do it around peak hours for ARK/TX?  Hopefully it will end up a straight line wind threat, but I won't hold my breath.

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Okay thanks!  I noticed the SPC mentioned the models showing the storms starting out as discrete cells before turning into mainly wind threats.  If today ends up being worse than yesterday, especially with Dallas involved, I'm officially turning into a prepper and building a city underground.  What you mention about the LLJ strengthening is ominous too and I noticed that it wanted to do it around peak hours for ARK/TX?  Hopefully it will end up a straight line wind threat, but I won't hold my breath.

 

Yeah, I'm not going to start throwing stuff around like this.

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Yeah, I'm not going to start throwing stuff around like this.

 

Good choice!  I was just trying to make light of a potentially bad situation (yet again).  I'll leave the rest of this thread to learn from you guys.  Thanks again Andy!

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Well, if the SPC WRF is on the right track, then we might have some problems today, I checked some hodographs from the 00z GFS and they were fairly universally looping upon an increase in the LLJ today. There does seem to be a bit of a veer-back-veer profile today, so we'll have to see if that affects storm characteristics and/or mode. The thermodynamic environment is still very potent, it's been awhile since I personally have seen a single synoptic system be able to tap such a potently unstable environment for such an extended period of time. The area from the DFW area earlier on and then east along the I-30 corridor towards Texarkana and perhaps approaching Little Rock later on, will need to be watched. Obviously with yesterday in mind, it only takes one to create a disaster.

 

D/FW experienced a high wind event earlier in the evening with dissipating supercells out west of Fort Worth. I'm afraid we've got boundaries laying around, just like we did in OKC yesterday. 

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D/FW experienced a high wind event earlier in the evening with dissipating supercells out west of Fort Worth. I'm afraid we've got boundaries laying around, just like we did in OKC yesterday. 

 

Yeah this is another thing I'm a bit concerned about.

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FWD'S early morning HWO, mentions strong, long track tornadoes. A chaser that lives down there said he's never seen them issue one so early in the day.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

303 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-220815-

MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-

HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-

ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-

JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-

FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-

LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-

303 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN

THREE QUARTERS OF NORTH TEXAS...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE

WEATHER ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO

MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING

NEAR THE RED RIVER IN THE MORNING...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST

AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY.

THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HAIL LARGER THAN

TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT

WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY...WITH STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES A

POSSIBILITY. BY MID AFTERNOON THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE

INTO A SQUALL LINE...INCREASING THE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND

POTENTIAL. THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES

BY LATE EVENING.

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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

Severe/Tornado Outbreak possible this afternoon/evening over TX

 

Potential for long tracked violent tornadoes across N TX this afternoon and evening

 

SPC moderate risk for severe weather including tornadoes in effect for today for N TX

 

Multi-day severe/tornado outbreak continues to unfold this morning across the US plains which has already produced devastating results. Parent upper level storm system responsible for the daily outbreaks continues to spin over the northern plains with a slow moving cold front across OK at the current time. Air mass south of this front and east of the dry line is incredibly moist and unstable with frequent dewpoints in the 70’s and CAPES values of 1500-2500 J/kg. With surface heating, the air mass over N and C TX will become extremely unstable by midday with CAPE values approaching 4000-5000 J/kg ahead of the eastward moving dry line and south of the southward moving frontal boundary. Short wave moving out of New Mexico will help erode the capping overhead by early afternoon and expect explosive supercell development along both the dry line and cold front. Storms will go quickly severe with hail to greater than 2 inches likely. Initial mode will be very dangerous supercells capable of strong rotation and tornadoes given the degree of instability and shear in place. Current thinking is that the greatest tornado threat will be along I-20 including the Dallas/Fort Worth metro areas with a secondary threat along/west of I-35 all the way to west of Austin along the dry line. Best ingredients for potentially devastating tornadoes will be over N TX into AR and NW LA although the moderate risk outline does clip our northern set of counties. 

 

Severe weather event will unfold NW of SE TX this afternoon and affect at least the north counties of our area this evening/overnight. Initial supercells will congeal into clusters and lines with the tornado threat weakening after dark and the threat for wind damage increasing as lines bow outward. Capping across our region looks to remain fairly potent, but very strong heating combined with lift from an approaching short wave will likely be enough to break the cap and allow central TX storms to move across the northern 1/3rd of our region or roughly from Columbus to Conroe to Livingston. Storms may attempt to build southward toward I-10 in the overnight hours, but it remains to be seen as to how strong the capping is over the southern portions of the area.

 

Think the main severe threat for SE TX will be wind damage and potentially very large hail. Tornado indices are fairly favorable from College Station to the Huntsville area this afternoon, but this is prior to the cap being breached. By early evening when the capping weakens likely allowing storms to develop, the tornado threat appears to be reduced. Should the cap weaken quicker than expected, the tornado threat across our northern counties will be increased

Low level boundary will remain in place on Wednesday and expect a continued threat for strong to severe storms across the central and southern counties with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.

 

Residents across TX need to review their severe weather and tornado safety plans.

 

SPC Severe Weather Outlook:



 

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My entire family, save for my brother in Houston, is living all through Dallas to the Tyler/Longview area. I'm worried today. NWS Shreveport is warning everyone to be prepared for significant severe weather - holding emergency planners calls this morning in front of the line.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0747
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0812 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
  
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN OK AND NRN TX
  
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
  
   VALID 211312Z - 211445Z
  
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
  
   SUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONGOING STORMS EXTENDING FROM EAST
   CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL OK TO WRN NORTH TX TO BECOME SURFACE
   BASED LATER THIS MORNING.  ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...WITH AN INCREASE IN
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATER THIS MORNING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
   A NEW WW.
  
   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY THE LAST FEW HOURS INDICATED TSTMS
   CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL...ERN OK INTO
   WEST CENTRAL AR...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED SWWD
   THROUGH SWRN OK TO WRN N TX.  THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY
   APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED INCLUDING THE LATTER SWRN OK/WRN N TX STORMS
   THAT HAVE TENDED TO BECOME UNDERCUT BY A SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
  
   INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   AND LOW LEVEL WAA OVER N TX AND SRN OK WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS MORNING.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
   THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ABUNDANT SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
   RED RIVER...WHICH WILL FURTHER BOOST AN ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED.
   FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF WSWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS/BULK SHEAR WITH THE
   APPROACH OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT STORM
   ORGANIZATION.  SWLY SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE ONGOING
   STORMS AND NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL FAVOR LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS WITH
   DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.  HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /NEAR 9 C PER KM ON THE 12Z FORT WORTH TX
   SOUNDING/ SUGGESTS HAIL WILL BE A THREAT AS WELL.  THE LAST SEVERAL
   HRRR RUNS FORECAST UPSCALE GROWTH FOR ONE OR MORE QLCS STRUCTURES
   ACROSS SRN OK AND N TX LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
  
   ..PETERS/KERR.. 05/21/2013
  
  
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
 

 

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Carefully watching the Hill Country area this morning. Developing CU field and a rather potent upper level jet streak dropping SE over New Mexico may well enhance severe storm development a bit further S this afternoon.

 

 

 

sat_wv_us_loop-12.gif

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Might be a monster of a day again as we saw yesterday.

 

 

I'm really not certain that yesterday was really a monster of a day, objectively. There were a lot of warnings other than Moore but I'm fairly confident nothing else was above F2, and I really don't think there will turn out to be that many tornadoes.

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Might be a monster of a day again as we saw yesterday.

I'm really not certain that yesterday was really a monster of a day, objectively. There were a lot of warnings other than Moore but I'm fairly confident nothing else was above F2, and I really don't think there will turn out to be that many tornadoes.

true
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Probably heading toward or past Waco. No way we are chasing east of Dallas

 

 

I-35 isn't perfect as a boundary, but from the Red River to San Antonio, it pretty much is the boundary between where there are enough/large enough trees to obstruct viewing and where there aren't.

 

Edit to Add: Texas Storm Chasers server seems to be struggling to manage traffic today.

 

 

post-138-0-83468800-1369150384_thumb.jpg

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Probably heading toward or past Waco. No way we are chasing east of Dallas

lots of open area between Waco and Temple/Killeen you could get some good shots. just don't want to go too far south of Killeen/Temple as you start to get mixed up with the folks in Austin and also Bryan/College Station/Texas A&M. 

you might want to check with MSP to see if there's any construction to worry about in central TX, given that last I knew he goes to A&M.

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lots of open area between Waco and Temple/Killeen you could get some good shots. just don't want to go too far south of Killeen/Temple as you start to get mixed up with the folks in Austin and also Bryan/College Station/Texas A&M. 

you might want to check with MSP to see if there's any construction to worry about in central TX, given that last I knew he goes to A&M.

This. Stay north of Salado at all costs, really. Be wary of Killeen too a bit w/ Fort Hood traffic. North of there up to Temple to Waco and over 31 toward Corsicana (but avoid Corsicana as traffic is tough to navigate around) is a good shot.

 

I 20 isn't bad for chasing (down that many times) but you're in the forests once to Canton and east so you gotta be careful there. You can pick it up off 35 and jog east quickly if you must.

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Sounds like Tornado Watch coming shortly... wind driven hail of 2"+ sounds scary :yikes:

mcd0749.gif

STORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHICH

ALSO INTERSECTS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND ARE

EXPECTED TO QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A DAMAGING MCS. WIND GUSTS

OVER HURRICANE FORCE...WIND DRIVEN HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL

BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MATURES AND FORWARD PROPAGATES ACROSS A

LARGE PART OF NRN TX AND INTO THE ARKLATEX THIS EVENING.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0749.html

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 201

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1025 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

TORNADO WATCH 201 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR THE

FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC013-023-085-095-220000-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0201.130521T1525Z-130522T0000Z/

OK

. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRYAN CHOCTAW LOVE

MARSHALL

TXC001-009-023-027-035-049-059-077-083-085-093-095-097-099-113-

119-121-133-139-143-145-147-161-181-193-207-213-217-221-223-231-

237-251-253-257-267-277-281-289-293-307-309-319-327-331-333-337-

349-363-367-379-395-397-399-411-417-425-429-439-441-447-467-497-

503-220000-

/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0201.130521T1525Z-130522T0000Z/

TX

. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON ARCHER BAYLOR

BELL BOSQUE BROWN

CALLAHAN CLAY COLEMAN

COLLIN COMANCHE CONCHO

COOKE CORYELL DALLAS

DELTA DENTON EASTLAND

ELLIS ERATH FALLS

FANNIN FREESTONE GRAYSON

HAMILTON HASKELL HENDERSON

HILL HOOD HOPKINS

HUNT JACK JOHNSON

JONES KAUFMAN KIMBLE

LAMAR LAMPASAS LEON

LIMESTONE MASON MCCULLOCH

MCLENNAN MENARD MILAM

MILLS MONTAGUE NAVARRO

PALO PINTO PARKER RAINS

ROBERTSON ROCKWALL RUNNELS

SAN SABA SHACKELFORD SOMERVELL

STEPHENS TARRANT TAYLOR

THROCKMORTON VAN ZANDT WISE

YOUNG

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