Moore, OK Tornado 5/20/2013

[Calderon]

In general, of course.  How could they not have shelters or any kind of a decent plan considering that they are in a relatively small area that is the planet's epicenter for violent tornados?

Damn, I didn't realize sheltering in place isn't a "decent" plan, I've been taught wrong all my life then!

 

I just don't understand how you don't see your question or whatever as stupid because there's an inherent risk in any situation. This tornado just happened to be moving slower than average so while theoretically you could've gotten out of the path, why would you want to risk being in a vehicle totally exposed instead of a brick and mortar building that has a better chance of withstanding and not a vehicle? I mean good frecking lord...

[andyhb]

If that's not EF-5 I don't know what is.

 

Need people to come in and confirm that this was of superior construction before that can be confirmed.

[jm1220]

If that's not EF-5 I don't know what is.

To think of what kind of power would reduce a well built structure to that is beyond frightening. I guess more frightening is what the ultimate death toll will end up. I wonder if this can eclipse Sandy for the East Coast?

[Mallow]

Look man, I'm not trying to argue you with.  I've said several times I'm no scientist and it was based on my LIMITED experience with those sorts of winds...and yeah 100 mph winds are rare.  We had an absurd bow echo blow through OKC back in mid 90s...(I only know because I remember who's house I was at and was obsessed with weather).  They had the shingles on the storm facing side of the house ripped off...that was about it...now trees and objects not tied down or secured were scattered everwhere.  My grandma lived a mile away and we went to check on her and couldn't even get to her house becaue of all the tree limbs in on the road in her neighborhood...

 

but yeah I realize my limited experience may not be indicitive of what happens...

 

Not arguing, just stating what I know of wind damage. It's possible the bow echo had a 100mph gust or two, but those kinds of winds were probably only sustained for a matter of seconds, whereas with a tornado it's more on the order of minutes. In addition, the damage potential of wind increases exponentially with wind speed, not linearly, so the difference in damage between 100 and 200mph winds is far more than twice the difference in damage between 50 and 100mph winds.

[wxsniss]

the vis sat evolution:

 

 

[OUGrad05]

Not arguing, just stating what I know of wind damage. It's possible the bow echo had a 100mph gust or two, but those kinds of winds were probably only sustained for a matter of seconds, whereas with a tornado it's more on the order of minutes. In addition, the damage potential of wind increases exponentially with wind speed, not linearly, so the difference in damage between 100 and 200mph winds is far more than twice the difference in damage between 50 and 100mph winds.

Oh yeah, I agree.  The difference in energy is ridiculous.  Not to mention when you get to catastrophic failure of the structure it just fails....mortar walls don't really bend (they do a bit but not much)...they just fail, when they fail that's it.  

 

The destruction/energy impact of winds is an expontential factor...a friend of mine is an engineer and we discussed this...I think he said it takes 8x the strength to withstand 200mph as opposed to 100mph?  Perhaps you can shed some light on that?

[Srain]

If you were not following the C/W sub forum, we had some awesome discussions going for this severe event over a week and a half ago. Many of our finest severe weather Red Tags as well as the SPC outlined the potential 6 days prior. Those that follow severe weather episodes and the local meteorologist were getting the word out as early as last Thursday for the increased risk. Unfortunately today we saw first hand live on TV as a violent rotating wall cloud developed W of Moore and wrapped up then dropped a large wedge tornado into a populated area. To say that this was a surprise or that the forecasters drop the ball is pure folly. Tornadoes are a part of life in this part of the world and today we witnessed what a large wedge tornado can do in a populated area.

[Brick Tamland]

I am just saying I hope they at least look into this and see if anything could help in future situations when deciding if a risk is elevated, moderate, or high. But it just goes to show you that people have to pay attention even when there is just a moderate risk. I really wish every school, office building, or any place with a lot of people in it had a proper shelter for something like this.

[Bostonseminole]

CNN still reporting that 20 of 51 killed weere children, sad.

[Hoosier]

Just sad and highly disturbing news today. As the creator of the Joplin thread, this one brings back memories of how things unfolded then.

[Mallow]

Oh yeah, I agree.  The difference in energy is ridiculous.  Not to mention when you get to catastrophic failure of the structure it just fails....mortar walls don't really bend (they do a bit but not much)...they just fail, when they fail that's it.  

 

The destruction/energy impact of winds is an expontential factor...a friend of mine is an engineer and we discussed this...I think he said it takes 8x the strength to withstand 200mph as opposed to 100mph?  Perhaps you can shed some light on that?

 

This is from the Australia Bureau of Meteorology:

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/images/faq/damage_wind.png

 

It doesn't exactly answer your question since it's measuring damage in a different way. I don't know what the exact number is, but I certainly wouldn't argue with an engineer friend who would probably know better than I do about building strength.

[mempho]

For the Monday evening quarterbacks: the cumlative efforts of SPC, local NWS, local TV and other media, school officials, and plain citizens likely prevented thousands of additional casualties.

A violent long track tornado passing through a densely populated area is going to result in some level of injury or death, even in prime tornado country. To expect otherwise is naive.

The vast majority of people tried their best to protect themselves and others around them.

 

 

Noone's casting any blame on SPC, NWS, or local TV guys.  This doesn't have anything to do with why the schools don't have any sheltering.  The odds are actually pretty good of having to actually use it one day in that area.

[JoMo]

Just sad and highly disturbing news today. As the creator of the Joplin thread, this one brings back memories of how things unfolded then.

 

Yep, coming up on 2 years in 2 days. Joplin has sent around a dozen public support officials (police/fire) to Moore, they will be arriving tonight.

 

http://www.koamtv.com/story/22303876/team-of-joplin-officials-going-to-moore-okla-to-help-in-tornado-aftermath

 

 

"As we saw the devastation that the tornado caused in their community, we began the preparation to send personnel to assist the city of Moore," said Joplin City Manager Mark Rohr. "We remember the amount of assistance that we received following the tornado two years ago, and we want to help others as they helped us. We know too well what their community is facing, and we feel an obligation to serve them as they have served us."

[Calderon]

I am just saying I hope they at least look into this and see if anything could help in future situations when deciding if a risk is elevated, moderate, or high. But it just goes to show you that people have to pay attention even when there is just a moderate risk. I really wish every school, office building, or any place with a lot of people in it had a proper shelter for something like this.

Hattiesburg's EF4 happened on a Slight Risk day, just sayin'. People should pay attention to any threat of general t'storms but more so with each risk area from slight to high. You're never going to reach everyone and I've made peace with that.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Hattiesburg's EF4 happened on a Slight Risk day, just sayin'. People should pay attention to any threat of general t'storms but more so with each risk area from slight to high. You're never going to reach everyone and I've made peace with that.

As the WFO in Chicago today stated, a "slight" risk does not mean the storms are going to be "slightly" damaging. I believe this is a common misconception held by the public.

[JoMo]

Noone's casting any blame on SPC, NWS, or local TV guys.  This doesn't have anything to do with why the schools don't have any sheltering.  The odds are actually pretty good of having to actually use it one day in that area.

 

As stated earlier in the thread, it takes money the schools don't have to build shelters. Even FEMA shelters (they pay up to 75% of the cost) aren't fully covered and the school district has to come up with 'matching funds'  to have the shelters built. Getting matching funds usually involves raising property taxes, and that usually requires a vote of the people in the district to raise their taxes. Since many schools are never hit by a tornado, people see that as wasteful spending. 

[mempho]

Damn, I didn't realize sheltering in place isn't a "decent" plan, I've been taught wrong all my life then!

 

 

 

It was fairly clear that sheltering in place was not a decent plan for this storm from about 30 minutes out.  When the TV met has stated that you might want to consider driving out of the way---

 

let me say this, at least- it's a pretty bad idea to not have EF-5 worthy shelter at a school in central Oklahoma anyway.  When you consider the return period for violent tornados...

 

In any case, people used to walk into battle shoulder to shoulder and let cannon and musket fire keep killing them and people thought that was intelligent.

[Derecho!]

I predict there will be at least one traffic fatality tomorrow involving parents rushing to a school in a tornado warning. 

[Dunkman]

As the WFO in Chicago today stated, a "slight" risk does not mean the storms are going to be "slightly" damaging. I believe this is a common misconception held by the public.

It does bring up the idea that perhaps we still have a ways to go in conveying information.  I mean you can have a high risk day where you're expecting a lot of EF0s, or very widespread severe hail, and the details are buried in outlooks, analyses, and the text of watches that really only enthusiasts and meteorologists read.  I know the on-air mets try to convey the specific dangers but it does seem like there should be more differentiation between a small chance of a catastrophic event and a higher chance of relatively minor severe weather.  People these days don't necessarily respond well to nuances in the wordings of watches, they need a purple flashing box or something.  Also, less people are getting their information from TV and local news people than in the past, relying on an app like TWC or Weatherbug on their phone, so they won't get a meteorologists interpretation of the threat.  Just something to think about for the future.

[baroclinic_instability]

I am just saying I hope they at least look into this and see if anything could help in future situations when deciding if a risk is elevated, moderate, or high. But it just goes to show you that people have to pay attention even when there is just a moderate risk. I really wish every school, office building, or any place with a lot of people in it had a proper shelter for something like this.

The sad reality is these types of tornadoes do damage that some structures simply can not withstand. "Just" a moderate risk, as clearly mentioned by brettjrob and Cumet, more than covered the risk potential for today. Even events like today, which were not the evident, classic High risk outbreaks like April 27th, can produce devastating tornadoes. An isolated strong tornado, which in some ways was slightly freakish given the overall synoptic storm environment in that location, does not warrant an SPC High risk. It was clear today had potential for a few isolated strong tornadoes, and the SPC had a very strongly worded day 3 risk that mentioned potential for a regional severe weather outbreak, a day 2 moderate mentioning potential for strong tornadoes, and NWS Norman had talked about it for days as well. The "warning" and risk "potential" were clearly laid out. 

[Thunder Road]

So it would be better to get hit so we don't have to worry about how to get back into town?

 

Trust me when I say I'm as emotional as you are in looking for a solution to this problem but honestly tell me what you do with a dozen buses of school children stranded away from their families without provisions for possibly days?  And with communication lines cut, how would parents know where to find their children?  The staff at this school did everything they could.  If you want more, lobby your congressman for more funding for public education so that they can build safe rooms in each classroom.

[Brick Tamland]

I guess the important thing is that people don't get caught up in the level of the risk, but know there is a risk and to keep tabs on what is happening. The risk could be high, but then it turns out you get minor damage or maye a couple of weak tornadoes. Or the risk could be slight, and you get one giant devestating tornado like we saw today in OK.

[weatherwiz]

What else did you want the SPC to do?  THe SPC had this area highlighted for several days as well as local offices and local media.  These people don't play around in that area and I'm sure they kept everyone well informed.  

 

As far as the SPC "elevating" the tornado risk, as many mentioned, the SPC had a 10% hatched area for tornadoes and had the area pretty much pinned down.  Thus, far there have been 18 tornado reports (not confirmed) so 10% hatched probs is a pretty damn good forecast.  

 

As far as that deadly tornadic supercell, this was a case of a supercell developing and riding along an extremely favorable environment for this monster to occur.  The supercell was in an area of maximixed instability with over 4500 J/KG of SBcape, 3500 J/KG of MLcape, 4500 J/KG of MUcape, LI values of -9C, mlvl lapse rates near 8 C/KM, 0-3km shear values near 60-70 knots, 0-3km helicity up around 300-350 m2s2, 0-1km helicity near 250 m2s2, 0-2km shear values of 25-30 knots (which is pretty significant), and LCL's were between 500-700 meters.  This supercell developed right in the core of all the strongest parameters that were in place. Hell, I'm also pretty sure there were several outflow boundaries present over the area which probably further enhanced the helicity values in that area.  

 

I saw it mentioned, and I agree they should have much larger tornado shelters built well underground.  I understand you then get into worrying about the cost of doing this, but considering this deals with peoples lives/safety, I'm sure they can get the funds to do this.  Like some also stated, sometimes, there is nothing you can really do in these situations...you prepare, do everything possible, but when debris is whipping through the air at such intense speeds, disaster is bound to happen.  However, if more can be looked into those underground tornado shelters, that is something that could certainly prevent large scale deaths in the future.

 

As for not having school...I disagree, you would think that schools would have better building structure than regular homes and could provide more safety.  It's incredibly unfortunate though to hear many deaths occurred to drowning.  This is also why those tornado shelters would be a much better idea, IMO.

[jm1220]

Yep, coming up on 2 years in 2 days. Joplin has sent around a dozen public support officials (police/fire) to Moore, they will be arriving tonight.

 

http://www.koamtv.com/story/22303876/team-of-joplin-officials-going-to-moore-okla-to-help-in-tornado-aftermath

 

 

"As we saw the devastation that the tornado caused in their community, we began the preparation to send personnel to assist the city of Moore," said Joplin City Manager Mark Rohr. "We remember the amount of assistance that we received following the tornado two years ago, and we want to help others as they helped us. We know too well what their community is facing, and we feel an obligation to serve them as they have served us."

Us up in Hurricane Sandy-land are mobilizing too. Hope it can be of some assistance to those affected. Ambulances and firefighters from Oklahoma helped our town get back on its feet after that catastrophe, and hopefully we can return the favor.

[New England Storm]

To be fair, you don't need to outrun the tornado, just get out of its path. You just have to have enough warning to move perpendicular to the path of the tornado by a couple miles. Of course, that's assuming you know exactly where the tornado is going to go.

 

Still, I might take my chances by bicycle with 20 minutes warning and knowing it was that powerful, and if I knew the route.

They use to say drive at 90 degrees from the storm, saw that on some old warnings from 74. 

It is so horrible to think of the loss of life today. I think this shows that even in this age we dont know everything about how  some  tornadoes can become so violent on a day when the threat did not scream Killer Tornado Day

[gkrangers]

The tornado watches issued were "low" for.strong tornadoes. (Not that anyone knows what that means)

[Thunder Road]

Unfortunately I'm too young to remember 5/3/1999, but a prof I had this semester said that that day was also a somewhat ambiguous set-up, and not a major tornado-producing day.  Seems like today was very similar, no?  Although it sounds like SPC handled it better this time around.  I think the prof said that the morning outlook on 5/3/1999 was only a SLGT?

[dljuly3]

The tornado watches issued were "low" for.strong tornadoes. (Not that anyone knows what that means)

 

And there was one strong tornado. It means that it isn't likely, but the chance exists that a strong tornado could form.

[Shawn]

I think they would have closed school here if the threat was significant. But maybe they threat wasn't thought to be that bad. I am surprised they don't have a large shelter area for the schools in the plains, too, with that being the heart of tornadoes in the US.

 

All the tornados today could have been EF-2 at the worst.  It's weather man.  NOAA did fine predicting the ingredients were there if things lined up perfectly (time-wise) to create a monster twister or two.  Most EF-4/5 type storms can not be forecasted.  We very very rarely get them here in the true South East.  The plains are called tornado alley for a reason man.

 

Nobody did anything wrong.  Leaving the children in a school was smart.  They had NO idea it was such a powerful storm when that decision was made.  I mean, they are pretty darn rare at that strength in any part of the United States or even the world.  Don't forget that those school also have much better building strength codes than ours here.  Wrong place, wrong tornado, wrong time.

 

A lot of people can't afford shelters, and if school funding is anything like it is around here with no help from the government, good luck on getting shelters for all those schools built.

[gkrangers]

And there was one strong tornado. It means that it isn't likely, but the chance exists that a strong tornado could form.

The point is that this stuff doesn't necessarily protect the public.