Brick Tamland Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 If schools in OK, TX, etc closed every time there was a threat of tornadic activity, the school year would go all year. I was just wondering if the threat today was higher than usual, though. Or if forecasters should have seen it higher than usual and missed something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Did no one see the possibility of this happening today, especially after the tornadoes yesterday? I would hope they would have kept the kids at home from school if they did. Have to wonder if someone dropped the ball on this. You don't keep kids home from school for a moderate-significant risk day covering several Midwest states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Did no one see the possibility of this happening today, especially after the tornadoes yesterday? I would hope they would have kept the kids at home from school if they did. Have to wonder if someone dropped the ball on this. It was discussed for a while that there was the possibility of strong to violent tornadoes to occur somewhere in the risk area. It's hard to pinpoint where/if this would happen and wouldn't really be beneficial to let schools out for the day because the tornado risk covered such a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 You don't keep kids home from school for a moderate-significant risk day covering several Midwest states. Maybe the the risk should have been elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 I was just wondering if the threat today was higher than usual, though. Or if forecasters should have seen it higher than usual and missed something. It was not an obvious violent tornado day in the vein of 5/10/10 or 5/24/11 or yesterday, no. That there were at least five other supercells in the general region and none produced SigTor's (to my knowledge) is testament to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Did no one see the possibility of this happening today, especially after the tornadoes yesterday? I would hope they would have kept the kids at home from school if they did. Have to wonder if someone dropped the ball on this. Considering the extreme tornado risk in that area- why no shelters, no evacuation plans, no calling off school...nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 I was just wondering if the threat today was higher than usual, though. Or if forecasters should have seen it higher than usual and missed something.Higher yes, but no way to predict where. They'd shut down 100+ schools given the size if higher threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 You need to educate yourself. Tornadoes can have forward motions up to 60-75mph... you'd have a tough time out running it wih a car....forget the run or bike theory please. Modern car windows won't stop a 2x4 traveling 140mph+ ( this case its safe to assume at least ef4 winds of 160mph+) A car is a last resort. Sometimes, when an ef-4, ef5 is bearing down on you, it might just be your time.. To be fair, you don't need to outrun the tornado, just get out of its path. You just have to have enough warning to move perpendicular to the path of the tornado by a couple miles. Of course, that's assuming you know exactly where the tornado is going to go. Still, I might take my chances by bicycle with 20 minutes warning and knowing it was that powerful, and if I knew the route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Sobering interview from a cleary distraught parent who said a car was thrown into the front office area of Plaza Towers and apparently was either near or on top of a teacher who had covered 3 students beneath her... did not specify if the teacher or 3 kids survived... but the parent was praising th teacher through his tears Saw it on NBC4 news up here around 11:03 This may be the reference to the teacher that protected 6 children that was reported earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Considering the extreme tornado risk in that area- why no shelters, no evacuation plans, no calling off school...nothing. Do you mean extreme tornado risk in general, or today? Moore is the precise bullseye for climatological tornado risk for May 20th, but there was certainly no "extreme tornado risk" today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 That's kinda the point of the new scale. That the old scale overestimated the amount of wind it takes to do certain amounts of damage, and the EF scale is supposed to be a more accurate representation of what kinds of winds lead to what kinds of damage. Backed up with plenty of evidence. Right exactly...like I said, I'm no scientist. What I can tell you is I've been in one tornado in Edmond in 1986 and have been in a couple of significant straight line wind events...having brick homes severely damaged with a couple walls knocked down (EF3 damage) at 135-165 seems pretty unlikely in my experience....BUT as I stated I'm not a scientist. I've been in several homes which sustained 100 to 110 mph straightline winds and suffered only minor roof damage (unless you count the tree limb that came through a window) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 I think they would have closed school here if the threat was significant. But maybe they threat wasn't thought to be that bad. I am surprised they don't have a large shelter area for the schools in the plains, too, with that being the heart of tornadoes in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Maybe the the risk should have been elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 It was not an obvious violent tornado day in the vein of 5/10/10 or 5/24/11 or yesterday, no. That there were at least five other supercells in the general region and none produced SigTor's (to my knowledge) is testament to that. In their defense they had up a 10% hatched area. Implying significant tornadoes were possible. The MDT verified their call was pretty much dead on today IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 So even if they had managed to get an entire school full of kids on buses and accounted for in 20 minutes, and even if they avoided all traffic and were not hit by the tornado itself, what do you propose the school do with a dozen buses full of kids now, with all of the roads into Moore closed? So it would be better to get hit so we don't have to worry about how to get back into town? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 This may be the reference to the teacher that protected 6 children that was reported earlier. Did they survive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Right exactly...like I said, I'm no scientist. What I can tell you is I've been in one tornado in Edmond in 1986 and have been in a couple of significant straight line wind events...having brick homes severely damaged with a couple walls knocked down (EF3 damage) at 135-165 seems pretty unlikely in my experience....BUT as I stated I'm not a scientist. I've been in several homes which sustained 100 to 110 mph straightline winds and suffered only minor roof damage (unless you count the tree limb that came through a window) Straightline winds of 100-110 mph are extremely rare... and minor roof damage does not seem like a normal result for those types of winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 I think they would have closed school here if the threat was significant. But maybe they threat wasn't thought to be that bad. I am surprised they don't have a large shelter area for the schools in the plains, too, with that being the heart of tornadoes in the US. That's because North Carolina is not Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Do you mean extreme tornado risk in general, or today? Moore is the precise bullseye for climatological tornado risk for May 20th, but there was certainly no "extreme tornado risk" today. In general, of course. How could they not have shelters or any kind of a decent plan considering that they are in a relatively small area that is the planet's epicenter for violent tornados? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Maybe the the risk should have been elevated. It was elevated. They had a 10% hatched area and a moderate risk up. A high risk would have busted today...MDT risk is not your run of the mill risk and a hatched area for tornadoes is the possibility of significant tornadoes. They mentioned it in their discussions and SPC outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Maybe the the risk should have been elevated. How? Should they have closed school for hundreds of thousands of kids across Kansas, OK, TX, etc? You can't pin down where a violent tornado will strike with that kind of lead time. It's not like it's a huge synoptic kind of storm like a Nor'easter, hurricane, etc, that can be forecasted and impacts charted up to several days ahead of time. You react to a tornado in a matter of minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 In their defense they had up a 10% hatched area. Implying significant tornadoes were possible. The MDT verified their call was pretty much dead on today IMO. Absolutely, and I'm not criticizing SPC -- quite the opposite. I'm pointing out that this was somewhat a case of really bad luck -- more so than on a day like 4/27/11 or 5/24/11, for example. Very reminiscent of Joplin in several respects. Not an obvious call until 30 minutes before the devastation began, if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 I posted this on Talkweather and this is in response to Brick and whoever. Like other people said, this was not in the truest sense a high risk setup, I actually thought yesterday was more deserving of a high risk than today. Here, we had a storm where everything came together in a horrible location on the mesoscale that allowed a large, violent tornado to move through a heavily populated area, sort of like Joplin. Sure, there were supercells with strong signatures elsewhere and embedded LEWPs and whatnot producing tornadoes, but it wasn't a setup where you had multiple classic supercells with major tornadoes rampaging across OK like some setups we have seen. The moderate risk is what I expected today, but the coverage of the most powerful storms did not meet the high risk criteria. Ultimately, however, this will end up being deadlier than pretty much all high risk days ever issued, along with Joplin. I think Super Tuesday (which could easily end up being eclipsed here, unfortunately) and 4/27/11 are the only days deadlier than this now overall since convective outlooks began being issued more regularly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 For the Monday evening quarterbacks: the cumlative efforts of SPC, local NWS, local TV and other media, school officials, and plain citizens likely prevented thousands of additional casualties. A violent long track tornado passing through a densely populated area is going to result in some level of injury or death, even in prime tornado country. To expect otherwise is naive. The vast majority of people tried their best to protect themselves and others around them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 I'm a little behind. Just got back into Norman, and just got internet back. Here's a good radar loop of the storm. Sorry if already posted http://i.minus.com/iluhrlDRbUSAQ.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Did they survive? From what I saw was that the teacher was in critical but the 6 students were ok. That was from earlier so I'm not sure about the exact circumstance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Slab: https://twitter.com/BenRussellNBC5/status/336669739357188097/photo/1 Slab: https://twitter.com/BenRussellNBC5/status/336669739357188097/photo/1 If that's not EF-5 I don't know what is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Straightline winds of 100-110 mph are extremely rare... and minor roof damage does not seem like a normal result for those types of winds. Look man, I'm not trying to argue you with. I've said several times I'm no scientist and it was based on my LIMITED experience with those sorts of winds...and yeah 100 mph winds are rare. We had an absurd bow echo blow through OKC back in mid 90s...(I only know because I remember who's house I was at and was obsessed with weather). They had the shingles on the storm facing side of the house ripped off...that was about it...now trees and objects not tied down or secured were scattered everwhere. My grandma lived a mile away and we went to check on her and couldn't even get to her house becaue of all the tree limbs in on the road in her neighborhood... but yeah I realize my limited experience may not be indicitive of what happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 WDAF-TV in Kansas City is reporting debris from the Moore area is being reported as far NE as Branson, MO. This was confirmed by Tulsa NWS, 250 miles away from Moore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 It was not an obvious violent tornado day in the vein of 5/10/10 or 5/24/11 or yesterday, no. That there were at least five other supercells in the general region and none produced SigTor's (to my knowledge) is testament to that. This. We were tragically unlucky today. From a completely objective, meteorological standpoint, there wasn't anything that special (on an observable and forecastable scale, in any case) about today's severe weather setup that stands out in comparison to many other events, and in fact, those days you brought up were obviously more conducive days for significant/violent tornadoes. This is important to keep in mind for those wondering why the SPC didn't issue a high risk/PDS watch or things of that nature. The best you can say is that there still exists the potential for a few significant tornadoes, which could have a big impact depending on where they track, which even I said being one of the more conservative voices in forecasting for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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