Buckeye05 Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 I was thinking about this last night. If there was any community that would have done it it would have been Moore after May 3, 1999. At the end of the day it's likely far too expensive and the logistics of getting hundreds of kids into a storm shelter is probably no easy task. An interior hallway of a well built brick school is probably the best place to be 999/1,000 times. Thing is, most schools aren't as well built as one would like to think. The amount of un-reinforced cinder block is a major problem to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Of all the awful and heart wrenching pictures from today, this one tops them all. My wife was amazed that the backpacks were still on the hook - she noticed this from the aerial shots. there was a shot on CNN last night that had significant destruction around a school and yet a plastic piece of playground equipment appeared unharmed and unmoved.... Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 report on live feed from Channel 9 said they found over 100 survivors overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 I disagree with the potential of our collective capability. I'd imagine the NWS/SPC would disagree with you as there's probably nobody more hurt/disappointed when there's wide-scale loss of life/destruction from a tornadic storm - and I do imagine they feel some responsibility. I don't think these guys will come into work tomorrow and say 'we did the best we could yesterday.' While their research/risk-outlines/watches/warnings provided directionally the right forecast, not even the best mets on this board could have told you at 8 AM this morning that there would DEFINITELY BE A LOSS OF LIFE AND PROPERTY - WITHOUT QUESTION. I cannot live with saying it's 'impossible' to predict, and I don't think the folks at the NWS/SPC can either. That's not to say they are at fault, but I certainly do not think they share your opinion that it's 'impossible' to predict. That's why they come into work every day - make a forecast, analyze the results, and then apply learning to improve future forecasts until you can deliver a 99.9999% accurate forecast - all in the spirit of protecting public life and property. I firmly believe a cell merger into the parent supercell near Newcastle was the trigger that took this from bad to catastrophic. Check out the animated GIF of radar here: http://i.minus.com/iluhrlDRbUSAQ.gif (I can't attach because my work blocks this website). Greensburg, Joplin, Henryville/Pekin tornadoes (among many others) featured at least one cell merger prior to dropping tornadoes that quickly went violent like we saw in Moore. I posted this last night on Twitter and David Kenney at MSU mentioned that disrupting the meso can cause it to consolidate/focus helicity at the surface. This make a lot of sense to me and would explain why things got violent quickly. Edit: I'd recommend looking at Bluestein's paper of the evolution of the Greensburg cell. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2009WAF2222206.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 SPC/NWS did an outstanding job as always. It's now up to the local OEM's and local gov't's to re-evaluate individual tornado action plans. It was virtually impossible to survive this one above ground and it's clear that more underground shelters need to become available and put into place in this region of the country. As a volunteer firefighter, kudos to my brothers out there in the Moore area, great job and god speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 The Monday morning quarterbacking taking place in this thread is ridiculous. As a bunch if weather nerds, I'm shocked there is so much of it. Anyone who lived in OK knew severe weather was possible, for days NWS Norman had graphics about it. Days! That tornado had one hell of a lead time prior to coming into Moore. What more do you people want the NWS to do? Good grief. This. And for the record, there is a community of literally hundreds of scientists in Norman (and elsewhere!), just down the road from this, who work tirelessly researching all of these things. They want to see better lead times and predictions just as much, if not more, than anyone. It is a slow process and isn't as easy as "if we researched ____, we'd solve the problem". Things like Warn-On-Forecast are being developed and investigated but not all problems are easily solvable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Does anyone have a timeline of events handy? E.g.: Tornado watch issued: Tornado warning issued: Tornado strikes Moore: etc... I see people tossing out 30+ min of lead-time, but I'm always curious in these situations what the exact timeline was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Does anyone have a timeline of events handy? E.g.: Tornado watch issued: Tornado warning issued: Tornado strikes Moore: etc... I see people tossing out 30+ min of lead-time, but I'm always curious in these situations what the exact timeline was. 16 mins from warning to impact, and then an enhanced warning 5 minutes before...based on a few items I've seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 21, 2013 Author Share Posted May 21, 2013 Does anyone have a timeline of events handy? E.g.: Tornado watch issued: Tornado warning issued: Tornado strikes Moore: etc... I see people tossing out 30+ min of lead-time, but I'm always curious in these situations what the exact timeline was. The warning was issued for Moore at 240 CT and the tornado entered Moore shortly after 310 CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 21, 2013 Author Share Posted May 21, 2013 16 mins from warning to impact, and then an enhanced warning 5 minutes before...based on a few items I've seen Yes the initial touchdown was at 256 CT west of Moore in Newcastle. The Moore impact was more than 15 minutes after the initial touchdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Thanks Ryan. 30 minutes is pretty damn good. I imagine the TOR watch was a couple/few hours earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Yes the initial touchdown was at 256 CT west of Moore in Newcastle. The Moore impact was more than 15 minutes after the initial touchdown. So if I understand this correctly, they actually had an enhanced warning five minutes before the tornado even touched down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 I firmly believe a cell merger into the parent supercell near Newcastle was the trigger that took this from bad to catastrophic. Check out the animated GIF of radar here: http://i.minus.com/iluhrlDRbUSAQ.gif (I can't attach because my work blocks this website). Greensburg, Joplin, Henryville/Pekin tornadoes (among many others) featured at least one cell merger prior to dropping tornadoes that quickly went violent like we saw in Moore. I posted this last night on Twitter and David Kenney at MSU mentioned that disrupting the meso can cause it to consolidate/focus helicity at the surface. This make a lot of sense to me and would explain why things got violent quickly. Edit: I'd recommend looking at Bluestein's paper of the evolution of the Greensburg cell. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2009WAF2222206.1 very interesting. It also appears the next attempted cell merger disrupted the tornado near the end there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Folks expecting 100% certainty on timing, path, strength and ensuring 100% risk aversion are being unrealistic and/or naive. SPC, NWS, spotters, chasers, local authorities, regular citizens all did an amazing job at mitigating hundreds or thousands of additional casualties. The only way to eliminate risk entirely from an EF-5 is to relocate out of "tornado alley" or tornado prone areas, which is not a direct option for a lot of people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Folks expecting 100% certainty on timing, path, strength and ensuring 100% risk aversion are being unrealistic and/or naive. SPC, NWS, spotters, chasers, local authorities, regular citizens all did an amazing job at mitigating hundreds or thousands of additional casualties. The only way to eliminate risk entirely from an EF-5 is to relocate out of "tornado alley" or tornado prone areas, which is not a direct option for a lot of people Look, it does not matter what you do... a tornado with winds nearing 200mph is going to tear **** up regardless of what safety protocols are put into place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Thanks Ryan. 30 minutes is pretty damn good. I imagine the TOR watch was a couple/few hours earlier? URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 191 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 110 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wendy Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 So if I understand this correctly, they actually had an enhanced warning five minutes before the tornado even touched down? So if I understand this correctly, they actually had an enhanced warning five minutes before the tornado even touched down? Tornado emergency issued for Moore at 3:01. I was watching and listening as it happened and the NWS didn't use an automated voice for the warning - it was a live person broadcasting on weather radio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 So if I understand this correctly, they actually had an enhanced warning five minutes before the tornado even touched down? The tornado warning came out before a tornado ever touched down. They issued a tornado emergency for Moore once it was on the ground and it was clear it would stay on the ground as a strong/violent tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Tornado emergency issued for Moore at 3:01. I was watching and listening as it happened and the NWS didn't use an automated voice for the warning - it was a live person broadcasting on weather radio. Ah, so five minutes after touchdown, and more than ten minutes before it reached the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 So ~2 hours on the watch, ~30 minutes on the warning, and ~10 minutes on the emergency. That's pretty impressive. Kudos to Norman WFO and SPC. They certainly saved lives yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Tornado emergency issued for Moore at 3:01. I was watching and listening as it happened and the NWS didn't use an automated voice for the warning - it was a live person broadcasting on weather radio. Ah, so five minutes after touchdown, and more than ten minutes before it reached the city. here's the earliest scan i have: (the time eastern time, so subtract the hour) 3:06 pm local time Pretty well defined hook/TDS as well as chaser reports just before it hit downtown moore: 3:16 local time pretty good warning time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 some conflicting info: ap: Ok M.E revises death toll to at least* 24. they're dropping from 91-24? very confusing wording.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Don't know if this was posted yet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 some conflicting info: ap: Ok M.E revises death toll to at least* 24. they're dropping from 91-24? very confusing wording.. After initially reporting Monday night that at least 51 people had died after the tornado tore through Moore, Okla., Amy Elliot, the chief administrative officer at the Oklahoma Medical Examiner's Office sad on Tuesday that only 24 bodies had been recovered. She cited "chaos" as the reason she had previously reported the higher figure. Reuters reports: "We have got good news. The number right now is 24," said Amy Elliott, chief administrative officer at the Oklahoma City Medical Examiner's Office. The prior figure of 51 dead may have included some double-reported casualties, Elliott said. "There was a lot of chaos," Elliott said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 To go along with that, my understanding is there are 40 more bodies that were found that the ME has not yet looked at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 This picture is a little crazy... https://twitter.com/aleithead/status/336812492137316352/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 To go along with that, my understanding is there are 40 more bodies that were found that the ME has not yet looked at. Someone better give some type of updated statement to stop the different reports: I understand its chaotic, but these different reports don't help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 The ME just released the updated number 30 minutes ago. The original 51 that we heard last night was wrong, it was only 24, which they corrected this morning. The reason it jumped to 91 was because 40 more bodies were found, but had not been transported to the MEs office. I am sure the media will update accordingly soon. Here is where I found the change of number: http://live.reuters.com/Event/Oklahoma_Tornado/77306327 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 I guess 24 is the official number, but it will probably be much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 This picture is a little crazy... https://twitter.com/aleithead/status/336812492137316352/photo/1 Who would've thought that tornadoes just aren't very good bowlers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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