Moore, OK Tornado 5/20/2013

[Ensō]

The same ratio of those that hit stuff, I believe it is less than 5% of the 2 combined. Maybe negligibly higher but not my much.

 

Really? I think that may apply to the number of tornadoes that do extensive EF4-5 damage, but IMO it's pretty likely that there are many more tornadoes that are capable of violent-level damage at least briefly.

[Stebo]

Really? I think that may apply to the number of tornadoes that do extensive EF4-5 damage, but IMO it's pretty likely that there are many more tornadoes that are capable of violent-level damage at least briefly.

 

Yes considering the equally as large number of weak tornadoes that also hit nothing but fields.

[SluggerWx]

The current 20% number does not mean there's a 20% chance it will happen.

 

It means there's a 20% chance of that event happening within N miles of any point inside that risk area.

Of course that's what it means. That's why I followed that format at the end of my post.

[wxsniss]

NYTimes going with the report of 91 dead, 51 official + 40 more bodies not yet at ME office

 

Also rescue efforts continuing through the night in rubble of school where more are feared missing.

[weatherwiz]

I agree with everything you've said here.

 

I just feel there is some link we have not yet identified or we currently do not understand that explains why one tornado is an EF-3 tornado and one tornado is an EF-5 tornado.

 

We're getting closer in that we have leading indicators that some may be stronger than others (as opposed to there just might be an increased risk for an increased quantity of 'x' intensity tornado).

 

I started thinking about the vortex interaction with our electric grid after seeing Andy G's footage from the very beginning/formation of the Philadelphia MS, EF-5. That storm destroyed a power line and it produced a power flash right in front of him - just as the storm formed.

 

I guess what I'm saying is that we do not have a good explanation for rapid intensification (which I believe is the link to strong/violent tornadoes).

 

I do not believe RI is entirely independent of factors on the ground (soil composition, debris field composition, soil moisture). 

 

We've come so far in forecasting - I just wish there was some way for this group to crowd analyze/hypothesize and diagnose rapid intensification.

 

If we find that ground factors that contribute to rapid intensification, maybe we could learn/alter some of the ground factors to help more closely predict when RI was more likely to occur.

 

Ground factors certainly could and quite possibly influence RI of tornadoes.

 

As far as today goes, I posted all the parameters I noticed just prior to the tornado on the last page but when you look at all the parameters, IMO, they certainly did favor the potential for such a violent tornado.  It's just amazing how the storm just took off as it neared Moore.  I also think there had to be some outflow boundaries leftover from yesterday's convection and those can play a major role in having local effects on storms.  

 

Another thing is storm movement compared to the wind field.  The supercells was moving pretty much perpendicular to the wind field and that alone vastly increases helicity and meso models may not pick that up too well.

[KSWx]

I disagree with the potential of our collective capability.

 

I'd imagine the NWS/SPC would disagree with you as there's probably nobody more hurt/disappointed when there's wide-scale loss of life/destruction from a tornadic storm - and I do imagine they feel someone responsible. 

 

I don't think these guys will come into work tomorrow and say 'we did the best we could yesterday.'

 

While their research/risk-outlines/watches/warnings provided directionally the right forecast, not even the best mets on this board could have told you at 8 AM this morning that there would DEFINITELY BE A LOSS OF LIFE AND PROPERTY - WITHOUT QUESTION.

 

I cannot live with saying it's 'impossible' to predict, and I don't think the folks at the NWS/SPC can either.

 

That's not to say they are at fault, but I certainly do not think they share your opinion that it's 'impossible' to predict.

 

That's why they come into work every day - make a forecast, analyze the results, and then apply learning to improve future forecasts until you can deliver a 99.9999% accurate forecast - all in the spirit of protecting public life and property.

 

 

Agree with you to an extent, I believe there is a missing link in terms of being able to predict these with more accuracy. I put my faith in science and truly believe the future is looking brighter. With that being said, the guys at the SPC doing an amazing job. For them it truly is damned if they do and damned if they don't and I think they do a better job than anyone possibly could at this point in time.

[Coach McGuirk]

That's a good question that I don't think anyone can answer accurately. All we can really do is speculate, but I think we can assume there are considerably more than we actually record.

With more suburban sprawl, we're bound to see more significant tornadoes.  Now the media can report that stronger tornadoes are on the rise. 

[baroclinic_instability]

Of all the awful and heart wrenching pictures from today, this one tops them all.

[SluggerWx]

That's a good question that I don't think anyone can answer accurately. All we can really do is speculate, but I think we can assume there are considerably more than we actually record.

Does anyone know if there is a scientific community/wing/group that is dedicating focus to answering this question?

 

Is there a group that specifically researches strong, violent tornadoes?

 

In 2007-2011, there were 8,196 tornadoes.

EF-5: 8 tornadoes; 310 deaths

<EF-5: 8,188 tornadoes; 517 deaths

 

Death Rate for EF-5 Tornado: 38.8 deaths (per EF-5 tornado, 310 / 8)

Death Rate for <EF-5 Tornado:  0.06 (deaths (per non EF-5 tornado, 517/ 8,188)

 

38.8 (EF-5) versus 0.06 (non EF-5)

 

That's a multiplier of 647x

 

So, it's my opinion that EF-5 tornadoes should be rated more like EF-647 or have a different name all together.

 

Of course I'm simplifying all this, but I'm trying to make a point.

[weatherwiz]

You can't label tornadoes "strong/violent" if they are going through constructed areas.  The EF-scale is based on the level of the damage, with how well the structure was built and then with winds estimated that go along with the damage.  There certainly are more in the way of "strong/violent" tornadoes, but we can't label as such if we have nothing to measure them up too.  

[SluggerWx]

Has there been any significant study on the chemistry in debris fields? We have powerful computers now, how do all of the debris interact/collide within one another inside a debris field at such high speed.

 

How do all of the chemical properties/gases from debris interact with each other in a vortex/vaccum?

 

I know the physical properties of debris can affect kinetic energy and overall kinetic mass and destruction power, even at lower wind speeds and slower storm motion. You can even simulate this in a blender by listening to the high impact / micro collisions when you introduce a cube of ice into a pure liquid mixture in a blender.

 

So, physical properties of debris field may (and probably do) increase a tornado's destructive power.

 

But what about the chemical properties?

 

And does anybody know what happens to the electrical energy from a transformer when it is hit by a tornado? 

[weatherwiz]

There has been/is occurring research being done on debris within the tornado and influences on strength and I'm sure you'll be able to find some more info online but more debris in a tornado will certainly make it more "stronger" or "lethal" in a way b/c you have airborne objects which are very heavy in weight and then thrown into other objects with such high momentum and velocities.  In fact, quite a bit of damage occurs from flying debris rather than wind itself I believe.  

[Shawn]

Of all the awful and heart wrenching pictures from today, this one tops them all.

 

I think this one's pretty sad also.  These two carrying the children are teachers, and you'd have to think (IF) this is the school that was totally leveled with the children's deaths both teachers had to endure it.  Maybe it was the other one though considering the building looks kinda in tact and many kids around:

 

[Shawn]

It's terrible how something so amazingly gorgeous had to strike the wrong area:

 

[Shawn]

BROS.  BROS.  I am NOT a fan of these children being interviewed. AT ALL.  Not cool bros.  Not cool at all.  It's being shown on TWC but from their "affiliate" local news in Oklahoma.  They're scared for life and I didn't see their parents around with them.  NOT cool.  /endrant.

[SluggerWx]

Of all the awful and heart wrenching pictures from today, this one tops them all.

My wife was amazed that the backpacks were still on the hook - she noticed this from the aerial shots.

[andyhb]

It's terrible how something so amazingly gorgeous had to strike the wrong area:

 

Yeah, regardless, let's not label stuff like this as amazingly gorgeous.

[thewxmann]

Has there been any significant study on the chemistry in debris fields? We have powerful computers now, how do all of the debris interact/collide within one another inside a debris field at such high speed.

 

How do all of the chemical properties/gases from debris interact with each other in a vortex/vaccum?

 

I know the physical properties of debris can affect kinetic energy and overall kinetic mass and destruction power, even at lower wind speeds and slower storm motion. You can even simulate this in a blender by listening to the high impact / micro collisions when you introduce a cube of ice into a pure liquid mixture in a blender.

 

So, physical properties of debris field may (and probably do) increase a tornado's destructive power.

 

But what about the chemical properties?

 

And does anybody know what happens to the electrical energy from a transformer when it is hit by a tornado? 

 

I don't see how chemistry plays into this. For instance, the condensation of water vapor in a tornado's funnel has no apparent effect on rotational motion. And I don't see how tornadoes would be filled with anything but normal air.

 

The energy in the pressure gradient and the kinetic energy of the winds are probably much more than that released during a transformer blowout, so I don't see how that would have much of an effect either. 

[Shawn]

Yeah, regardless, let's not label stuff like this as amazingly gorgeous.

 

Well, I meant if it was in the middle of no where.  I see what you mean though.

[SluggerWx]

Thoughts and prayers to all those affected. Gotta try to get some sleep for now.

 

JoMo - thoughts and prayers to you and your community and thankful for your safety today. I can't imagine what it's like for you and the Joplin community to have the thoughts/emotions race back after something so similar affected your community not long ago.

 

I remember not being able to fall asleep nearly two years ago after I searched/hunted online alongside many others in this community to try and see if you were okay after your ominous last post as the storm approached.

 

In the coming days we finally learned of your well-being, and it provided a ray of light/hope that lifted a heavy veil of anxiety for many that were worried for you in this community.

 

I'm praying that in the coming days, the Moore community sees a safe return to all those that are missing or unable to re-unite with their family/friends. 

[adk]

Heartbreaking.  I can't imagine that so many of the affected went through this same pain in 1999. 

 

Also, it frankly doesn't matter if this was an EF-4 or an EF-5.  Nothing much survives a direct hit from either. 

[mappy]

The Monday morning quarterbacking taking place in this thread is ridiculous. As a bunch if weather nerds, I'm shocked there is so much of it. Anyone who lived in OK knew severe weather was possible, for days NWS Norman had graphics about it. Days! That tornado had one hell of a lead time prior to coming into Moore.

What more do you people want the NWS to do? Good grief.

[CoastalWx]

The Monday morning quarterbacking taking place in this thread is ridiculous. As a bunch if weather nerds, I'm shocked there is so much of it. Anyone who lived in OK knew severe weather was possible, for days NWS Norman had graphics about it. Days! That tornado had one hell of a lead time prior to coming into Moore.What more do you people want the NWS to do? Good grief.

Gotta love it. Like Joplin, chalk it up to some horrible luck a well.

[H2O]

The Monday morning quarterbacking taking place in this thread is ridiculous. As a bunch if weather nerds, I'm shocked there is so much of it. Anyone who lived in OK knew severe weather was possible, for days NWS Norman had graphics about it. Days! That tornado had one hell of a lead time prior to coming into Moore. What more do you people want the NWS to do? Good grief.

 

 

apparently some think the NWS should be standing outside trying to steer bad weather to unpopulated areas. 

[NaoPos]

Some people need to understand that sometimes you can't beat Mother Nature. It's a sad reality. We can do our best (which i beleive the NWS/SPC/chasers/local media all did a fantastic job)... This is just an extremely unfortunate events (much like Joplin).... (they even had less time to get to cover.)

[Bostonseminole]

Some people need to understand that sometimes you can't beat Mother Nature. It's a sad reality. We can do our best (which i beleive the NWS/SPC/chasers/local media all did a fantastic job)... This is just an extremely unfortunate events (much like Joplin).... (they even had less time to get to cover.)

I agree with the last few post, sometimes no matter how awful we feel, there is nothing anyone could have done. Yet I do hope it becomes mandatory in these areas to at least have shelters build in schools.

[bluewave]

It was extremely rare for a an EF 4 or greater tornado to reoccur so close to a previous one

in only 14 years. 

 

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/papers/meyeretal.pdf

[NavarreDon]

KFOR: OK ME confirms death toll now at 91.

 

http://kfor.com/2013/05/20/at-least-37-killed-in-moore-tornado/

[CT Rain]

I agree with the last few post, sometimes no matter how awful we feel, there is nothing anyone could have done. Yet I do hope it becomes mandatory in these areas to at least have shelters build in schools.

 

I was thinking about this last night. If there was any community that would have done it it would have been Moore after May 3, 1999. At the end of the day it's likely far too expensive and the logistics of getting hundreds of kids into a storm shelter is probably no easy task.

 

An interior hallway of a well built brick school is probably the best place to be 999/1,000 times.

[MrFusion70]

Hundreds of kids at an ES, that would have to be a HUGE storm shelter. Doesn't seem practical on a lot of levels. 

 

There were 75 at the time acording to reports but my opinion is it should be mandatory to have several tornado proof shelters in all schools in tornado alley no matter what the costs!