Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Cells initiating near Great Bend, KS Already getting healthy lightning output EDIT: Err...you guys better have a spare windshield or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 TOR Watch for S MN, N IA, and extreme W WI. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0180.html any idea where SPC got that storm vector from? most of the indications I am seeing says the storm vector will start at 180 and shift eventually to 220 or maybe 230. 260@30 kts just doesn't seem right, unless I am missing something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Discrete stuff going up near Topeka and ICT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0698 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN...CNTRL...AND SRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 191845Z - 191945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTM INITIATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY PROBABLE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ACROSS NRN/CNTRL OK. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY INTENSIFY AND POSE A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS FROM 18Z SHOWS A DRYLINE RAPIDLY MIXING EWD ACROSS WRN OK...ATTENDANT TO A DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER NWRN OK...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS WIDESPREAD ACROSS CNTRL OK. A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS FAR NRN OK...BUT UNIFORM SLY WINDS WERE NOTED ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...AN INCREASINGLY AGITATED LINE OF CU WAS NOTED PRECEDING THE DRYLINE...ORIENTED SW-NE FROM NEAR A 30 E CSM TO 15 NW END LINE...WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY FOCUS FOR INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE OK AND NRN TX PANHANDLES SHOULD CONTINUE EWD NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER. STRONG SFC HEATING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS MOST OF OK...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CU FORMING MORE RECENTLY BUT STILL EXHIBITING CAPPED/FLAT CHARACTER. PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...ALONG WITH FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S F WITHIN THE MOIST AIR...SHOULD RESULT IN EROSION OF THE SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION NOTED IN THE 18Z OUN SOUNDING. AS THIS OCCURS...DISCRETE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE APPEARS LIKELY...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACCOMPANYING SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS...AS WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. RECENT SUITE OF HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA BETWEEN 20-21Z...AND PERHAPS AFTER 21Z ACROSS SWRN/S-CNTRL OK. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. ..ROGERS/KERR.. 05/19/2013 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Tor watch for e ks and a bit north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 any idea where SPC got that storm vector from? most of the indications I am seeing says the storm vector will start at 180 and shift eventually to 220 or maybe 230. 260@30 kts just doesn't seem right, unless I am missing something here. You're right. The mesoanalysis shows the storm motion should be at 225 degrees or maybe a bit more toward 190 or 200. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Any bets on a PDS in OK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 70/30 watch up DISCUSSION...RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...WHERE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 500 MB JET STREAK WILL AID STORM INITIATION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY... ESPECIALLY INITIALLY...BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE... WITH THE UPSCALE GROWTH OF A SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA AND WESTERN MISSOURI. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...BEFORE DAMAGING WINDS BECOME A MORE PROMINENT RISK THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 19, 2013 Author Share Posted May 19, 2013 Any bets on a PDS in OK? I don't think it would be a PDS, as the highest probs are where the tor watch was just issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Any bets on a PDS in OK? Well, the MD doesn't even mention strong tornadoes so I would be skeptical of a PDS being issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Central OK is stil rather capped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Laubach is here in Wellington. Good news I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 @Smoke: I see the highest probs extending into OK. Best parameters are right on the border, or in OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 I don't think it would be a PDS, as the highest probs are where the tor watch was just issued. I disagree that the stronger parameters are in the northern target. The cap breaking earlier has a chance to really make the northern stuff messy. The instability and even the bulk shear and shear vector orientation are more impressive in OK, IMO... however, terrain can be more an issue if things go into Osage County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 I doubt we get a PDS today ... upscale growth and borderline LCLs are working against it. Then again, they tossed that one out for the OH Valley a while back so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Central OK is still rather capped. Yes, but it is still REALLY early... I want the area to stay capped until around 4 pm personally... things are more likely to stay discrete that way. It also waits for convection to get going while the better parameters move into place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 latest soundings: OKC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 LCLs are not marginal and they won't be marginal. The RAP cannot handle sfc conditions as it almost always overestimates sfc temps at peak heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Laubach is here in Wellington. Good news I guess. Where in Wellington are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Gonna sit in Medford, OK for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 I doubt we get a PDS today ... upscale growth and borderline LCLs are working against it. Then again, they tossed that one out for the OH Valley a while back so who knows. I doubt the PDS watch also...mainly because of the uncertainty. However, I do not see LCLs being a huge problem. The warm sector is moistening very impressively. Storms may start out with higher LCLs but by evening it shouldn't be an issue, even into OK. I guess they could be up around 1000-1200 meters, but in that range strong tornadoes can still form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Where in Wellington are you?Conoco parking lot. E 16 and N A st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Tornado Hunt is here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Tornado Watch out for Oklahoma now... until 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Stuff popping in NW OK now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Another 70/30 watch DISCUSSION...THE INITIATION OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS APPEARS LIKELYALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE NEXT FEWHOURS...BEFORE ADVECTING AWAY FROM THE DRYLINE ON 40-50 KT DEEPLAYER SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW. AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES THROUGH AMOIST UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SIZABLE CAPE...THE RISK FOR VERYLARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENINGHOURS. BY EARLY EVENING...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JETWILL CONTINUE TO ENLARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...MAINTAINING THE RISKFOR TORNADOES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A COUPLE OF LONG-LIVED/LONGTRACK SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH A RISK FOR A FEW STRONGTORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Conoco parking lot. E 16 and N A st. I'm at the McDonald's a few hundred feet up the street. Is it a good or bad sign that the tornado hunt team just rolled in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Conoco parking lot. E 16 and N A st. Storm going up to your west, east of Medicine Lodge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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