baroclinic_instability Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Good luck to the chasers today. Stay safe everyone. Once again, keep the disco clean and meteorological, and limit the questions and/or comments that don't contribute to the event once activity ramps up. I will be watching closely from the forecast desk in cold Alaska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 We watched the Rozel storm for a while. It was clearly a strong tornado and the first time it touched down it was down for at least 15-20 minutes. The 3rd touchdown also lasted about 10-15 mins. It was an impressive tornado and LCLs were fine. Oh wow, I was not aware that it was on the ground for that long. I saw the warning/TDS and then it was roping out on the feeds not long after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Good luck to the chasers today. Stay safe everyone. Once again, keep the disco clean and meteorological, and limit the questions and/or comments that don't contribute to the event once activity ramps up. I will be watching closely from the forecast desk in cold Alaska I will gladly trade you places today. Cold sounds great right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Some weak convection appears to be firing in Kansas, looks like just weak echos ATTM. Hopefully that won't mess anything up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 MD up for possible watch http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0695.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 12z SPC WRF for what it's worth. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Here is a couple of images from a 3km (Ignore the heading of 8km, I used the same tempalte as a bigger domain that I run) WRF model I ran with the 12Z GFS data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Leaving OUN on 5/10/10 for the "better terrain" north was a horrifyingly awful mistake. Will I learn from it? Probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Some CU now in Western Kansas. Watching Closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 I think this will be a pretty big day, with a better potential for tornadoes in more areas than yesterday. Maybe more than the 22 tornadoes of yesterday. The STP (significant tornado parameter) will be pretty high. See the image below. It's a 6 hour forecast. The LCL's will be 1250m for some of the moderate risk area, which is medium, if you want a tornado threat (I think.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 If the WRF verifies, TT's current prognostication and cumet's earlier prognostication of high risk, high caliber outbreak would be realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Tulsa has an updated AFD, as well as Springfield (who wrote a novel) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Widespread SB-CAPE surging north into Kansas, and is already prevalent across most of Oklahoma. With instability already pooling along the dryline in OK with CAPE values of 3000+j/kg occurring. Doesn't appear that moisture should be much of an issue anymore, not thinking that LCL's should be an issue either with 2000m+ LCL's currently staying behind the dryline for now, and a large area of 1000m over the Moderate Risk. Not expecting terribly large temperature-dewpoint spreads, with dewpoints being in the upper 60's to low 70's, and temps should be in the upper 70's to mid 80's... Although none of the wind fields at least ATTM appear too impressive though, with 0-6km srh of AOA 40kts. And the best helicities being around 150m2/s2, and the best (250m2s2) currently over Southwest Missouri... Thoughts...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 I don't want to fill up this page with lengthy copy/paste jobs, but I felt this snippet from an updated TSA AFD is noteworthy: ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER LATETHIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY ACROSS NE OK. STORMS MAY BEJUST AS INTENSE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OK INTONW AR HOWEVER THEY ARE LIKELY TO BE REDUCED IN NUMBER WITHEASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXTENT. LESS DEEP MOISTURE AND A STRONGCAPPING INVERSION CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MUCH LOWER STORM CHANCESTOWARD SE OK. FORECAST WIND PROFILES SUPPORT A WINDOW OF FAVORABLE SHEARPARAMETERS FOR STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. WHETHER THIS ISREALIZED WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON EVENTUAL STORM/S/EVOLUTION...HOWEVER UNDERSTANDING THE POTENTIAL EXISTS ISNOTEWORTHY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 I will gladly trade you places today. Cold sounds great right about now. I certainly disdain heat/humidity, but this "spring" up here has been a joke. Some middle ground would be nice. I certainly do not envy you guys either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 I don't want to fill up this page with lengthy copy/paste jobs, but I felt this snippet from an updated TSA AFD is noteworthy: ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER LATETHIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY ACROSS NE OK. STORMS MAY BEJUST AS INTENSE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OK INTONW AR HOWEVER THEY ARE LIKELY TO BE REDUCED IN NUMBER WITHEASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXTENT. LESS DEEP MOISTURE AND A STRONGCAPPING INVERSION CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MUCH LOWER STORM CHANCESTOWARD SE OK. FORECAST WIND PROFILES SUPPORT A WINDOW OF FAVORABLE SHEARPARAMETERS FOR STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. WHETHER THIS ISREALIZED WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON EVENTUAL STORM/S/EVOLUTION...HOWEVER UNDERSTANDING THE POTENTIAL EXISTS ISNOTEWORTHY. I think that AFD sums it up nicely. A classic way of noting potential but alluding to uncertainties. Forecasters are good at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 I don't want to fill up this page with lengthy copy/paste jobs, but I felt this snippet from an updated TSA AFD is noteworthy: Check out Springfield's. I think the summary is paragraph 6. Lots of detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Day 2 1730 still MOD risk but it was shifted SE a lil bit... plus large swath of 30 and shaded region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 I think that AFD sums it up nicely. A classic way of noting potential but alluding to uncertainties. Forecasters are good at it. What I've noticed in some of the nastiest tornado outbreaks over the years is this: The 250mb and 300mb jet level winds are even higher than the 500mb, in the area of the tornadic storms. Like for example, 500mb is at 40 knots, then 300mb would be at 50 knots, maybe 250mb would be at 55 knots or higher. I believe some of the research says that higher jet-level storm relative winds will be a predictor of the supercell type, i.e. from HP to classic to LP. (in that order.) I think what I've seen is the classic type supercells with medium to high winds at 300mb (with an increased speed compared to 500mb) will be ones that have at least a 25% chance of producing a tornado. Today, SE Kansas should have a 500mb wind of 55kt and a 300mb wind of 75kt. (based of 16z RAP) This is certainly a warning sign for higher tornado severity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 In case anybody didn't see the 1730z Day 2 update moved the mod-risk farther southeast, the discussion sums up the threat pretty well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Check out these inertial gravity waves in southern Kansas. Those may help convective initiation as they approached the I-35 corridor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0697NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1251 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SCNTRL THROUGH ERN KS...EXTREME SERN NEBAND WRN MOCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 191751Z - 191945ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 20Z...MOST LIKELY OVERSCNTRL KS INTO NCNTRL OK. STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY CONTINUE THROUGHTHE WARM SECTOR OVER ERN KS...NERN OK AND EVENTUALLY WRN MO THISEVENING. INITIAL THREATS WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL ANDTORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM WRN TX INTOFAR WRN OK THEN NWWD INTO THE OK PANHANDLE WHERE IT INTERSECTS ACOLD FRONT. A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXISTS NEAR THE OK/KSBORDER AND HAS BEEN LIFTING SLOWLY NWD. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSOINDICATES AN EWD PROPAGATING GRAVITY WAVE FROM SCNTRL KS INTO NWRNOK. UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTING NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTORBENEATH VERY STEEP /8-9 C/KM/ MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE FACTORSALONG WITH DIABATIC WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITYWITH 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE BY MID AFTERNOON. WARM AIR AT THE BASE OFTHE EML IS SERVING TO CAP THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SFC BASED STORMS INTHE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER...MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATEDWITH EWD PROPAGATING GRAVITY WAVE LOCATED WITHIN UPPER JET EXITREGION AS WELL AS DRYLINE CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TOTHUNDERSTORM INITIATION AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHEDTOWARD MID-LATE AFTERNOON.MID-UPPER JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF THE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN50+ KT DEEP SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS WILLALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES...AND THREAT FOR A FEWSTRONG TORNADOES WILL EXIST GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ANDMAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...DIAL/KERR.. 05/19/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 mcd0697.gif MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0697 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SCNTRL THROUGH ERN KS...EXTREME SERN NEB AND WRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 191751Z - 191945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 20Z...MOST LIKELY OVER SCNTRL KS INTO NCNTRL OK. STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR OVER ERN KS...NERN OK AND EVENTUALLY WRN MO THIS EVENING. INITIAL THREATS WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM WRN TX INTO FAR WRN OK THEN NWWD INTO THE OK PANHANDLE WHERE IT INTERSECTS A COLD FRONT. A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXISTS NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER AND HAS BEEN LIFTING SLOWLY NWD. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES AN EWD PROPAGATING GRAVITY WAVE FROM SCNTRL KS INTO NWRN OK. UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTING NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR BENEATH VERY STEEP /8-9 C/KM/ MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH DIABATIC WARMING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE BY MID AFTERNOON. WARM AIR AT THE BASE OF THE EML IS SERVING TO CAP THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO SFC BASED STORMS IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER...MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD PROPAGATING GRAVITY WAVE LOCATED WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION AS WELL AS DRYLINE CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED TOWARD MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MID-UPPER JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF THE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN 50+ KT DEEP SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES...AND THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL EXIST GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY. ..DIAL/KERR.. 05/19/2013 Great minds think alike lol Winds are a bit more backed than the NAM showed around Tulsa and into adjacent SE Kansas. Will be interesting to watch that over the next 2-3 hours once CI is underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 That gravity wave looks absolutely nasty on visible Should be extremely interesting to see how the cells look once they initiate off of that thing. I'm not all up in arms about a "major outbreak" today or anything, but I definitely think that we could see one or two very well documented, strong tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Isn't there some research that associates gravity waves with tornado outbreaks, or at least severe weather outbreaks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Check out these inertial gravity waves in southern Kansas. Those may help convective initiation as they approached the I-35 corridor? We were just having that discussion. Like the fact that they are still a couple hours west giving the atmosphere some more time to prime itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 GOES-WEST will be in SRSO for today's severe weather The data will be found here: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/dev/lindsey/loops/ NOUS72 KNES 191548ADMNESSUBJECT: ADMINISTRATIVE: GOES-15 (GOES-WEST) SRSO SCHEDULED FOR MAY*TOPIC: *GOES-15 (GOES-WEST) SRSO IS SCHEDULED FOR MAY 19, 2013*DATE/TIME**ISSUED: *MAY 19, 2013 1535 UTC*******PRODUCT(S) OR DATA IMPACTED:*GOES-15 (GOES-WEST) IMAGER DATA ANDPRODUCTS***DATE/TIME OF INITIAL IMPACT:*MAY 19, 2013****J-DAY 139 @ 1959 UTC***DATE/TIME OF EXPECTED END:*MAY 20, 2013 J-DAY 140 @ 0559 UTC*****LENGTH OF OUTAGE:*10 HOURS ***DETAILS/SPECIFICS OF CHANGE:*SRSO REQUESTED BY CIRA FOR SUPPORT OF THEIFLOODS FIELD EXPERIMENT. THE CENTER POINT IS 40N 101W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 TOR Watch for S MN, N IA, and extreme W WI. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0180.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Nice Theta-E pooling near the DL and remnant OFB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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