May 15-20 Severe Weather Obs/Discussion (Part 2)

[Thrasher Fan]

Nice hook developing near Empire City

[SN_Lover]

Nice hook developing near Empire City

that one died out now. 

[SN_Lover]

what's everyones thoughts on tomorrow? looks like it's going to be the same. not buying into twc's 3/10, for tomorrow(or today). after today.....

[andyhb]

I hate to say this, but the SPC WRF is showing more strong updraft helicity signatures across the Arklatex into Arkansas tomorrow...

[Chinook]

what's everyones thoughts on tomorrow? looks like it's going to be the same. not buying into twc's 3/10, for tomorrow(or today). after today.....

If you are still awake, you may want to read the 06z SPC outlook for tomorrow. They put in a 10% hatched for tornadoes, which is in the realm of enhanced tornado chances, above the 5% they put on a lot of the slight risks.

[Thundersnow12]

One of my videos from Sunday, going to try to enhance this one a bit but here is the raw video. Will post more videos later. 

 

[Ground Scouring]

What about the Carney, OK, tornado from a few days ago? When will a rating be issued for that event?

 

Also, will there be any word on whether the Rozel, KS, tornado on May 19 was EF4? And what's the final word on the Shawnee EF4+?

[Ian]

Rozel rated EF4 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ddc&storyid=94702&source=0

[OKStorm]

It appears the NWS survey teams have found some EF5 damage in Moore so the storm may see an upgrade in rating.

[OKStorm]

[andyhb]

It appears the NWS survey teams have found some EF5 damage in Moore so the storm may see an upgrade in rating.

 

It already has been upgraded.

[Ground Scouring]

It already has been upgraded.

Sorry to sound redundant, but how severe was the Carney event? There has been little talk about it, though that's understandable considering the magnitude of the Moore, Pawnee, and other events.

[nwburbschaser]

Rozel rated EF4 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ddc&storyid=94702&source=0

That tornado did seem somewhat violent, but didn't cause all that much damage so I was skeptical on what it would be rated.  I saw the DOW in the area and was hoping that some data from it would get released.  I know the El Reno tornado was rated EF-5 in part due to the DOW measurements, and now this one, so are ratings based on the DOW wind speed measurements acceptable now?  I thought it was a big debate after the El Reno tornado on whether to accept that or not. 

[B-Rent]

Looks like 4 tornadoes confirmed in SW MO (SGF) last night, might be more coming.

[brettjrob]

Saw mention elsewhere that this may be the first instance since the 1950s of three consecutive days with EF4 tornadoes (Rozel 5/18, Shawnee 5/19, Moore 5/20). I also suspect it's the first time one major U.S. metro area has endured two consecutive violent tornado days, even though I'm not sure how to go about confirming that without extensive manual review of historical data. Anyone know of another example?

[Hoosier]

Saw mention elsewhere that this may be the first instance since the 1950s of three consecutive days with EF4 tornadoes (Rozel 5/18, Shawnee 5/19, Moore 5/20). I also suspect it's the first time one major U.S. metro area has endured two consecutive violent tornado days, even though I'm not sure how to go about confirming that without extensive manual review of historical data. Anyone know of another example?

As far as violent tornadoes on three consecutive days, it's happened at least two other times since 1950... April 17-19, 1970 (TX/MS) and June 7-9, 1953 (NE/MI/OH/MA). 1970 barely qualifies as the touchdown on the 18th happened a bit after midnight.

[SnowGoose69]

Saw mention elsewhere that this may be the first instance since the 1950s of three consecutive days with EF4 tornadoes (Rozel 5/18, Shawnee 5/19, Moore 5/20). I also suspect it's the first time one major U.S. metro area has endured two consecutive violent tornado days, even though I'm not sure how to go about confirming that without extensive manual review of historical data. Anyone know of another example?

 

I'm not sure if the 5/8 and 5/9/2003 tornadoes in OKC were both F4s, I know the Moore tornado on 5/8 was but not the NRN OKC one on the 9th which was an F2 or F3.  On the post 2004 EF scale I think both events may have been EF5 and EF4.

[andyhb]

I'm not sure if the 5/8 and 5/9/2003 tornadoes in OKC were both F4s, I know the Moore tornado on 5/8 was but not the NRN OKC one on the 9th which was an F2 or F3.  On the post 2004 EF scale I think both events may have been EF5 and EF4.

 

The 5/9/03 tornado in OKC was an F3.

 

Also, it is more difficult to achieve higher ratings on the EF-scale due to more strict damage requirements, it doesn't have to do with the conversion in wind speed. The research done in revising the scale found that the damage produced by a given rating of tornado did not require the wind speed of the original scale to cause it, in other words, a well constructed home of superior construction with proper anchoring does not require a wind of greater than 261 mph to sweep it away, and there is no limit to the upper end of the EF5 rating, which means the conversation about an "EF6" or w/e should never exist.

[HM]

Really long day for a second day in a row, but we saw the wedge in Shawnee from a distance and almost saw the Carney storm but were at a bad angle.. was my first 'true' tornado with a nice condensation funnel as opposed to just a swirl so that was a cool accomplishment. Chasing in that area with the hills and trees was certainly not easy - don't know how some of you guys do it and make it seem so easy. Some of the pictures and videos coming out of these are just striking and the damage is really sobering. Also I can't get it out of my mind how close Norman came to a total disaster today had things been shifted 10 miles west... ugh. That makes 4 out of the last 5 years that somewhere in Norman has had a confirmed tornado with 2011 being the exception (and May 24th came perilously close to making it 5/5). Will take a while to go through my photos, I think.

 

Hands down, the best driver right here. While I was oblivious in the backseat going through all the data I could and constantly keeping my head down looking at the radar/my cell, Jake was basically keeping us alive! The worst part about chasing is road obstacles and I'm glad I was in the hands of an excellent driver.

 

Thanks again for the trip! I know the look on our faces Monday was basically "get us the heck out of this state" but I thoroughly enjoyed the chasing experience (and even Beth too, haha).

 

Edit: here is a link to some of the photos Beth took:

https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.10102617344582359.1073741825.8822493&type=1&l=66bd0592cb

 

[Ian]

Glad you got to see something HM. Sorry it was this one..

[LocoAko]

Hands down, the best driver right here. While I was oblivious in the backseat going through all the data I could and constantly keeping my head down looking at the radar/my cell, Jake was basically keeping us alive! The worst part about chasing is road obstacles and I'm glad I was in the hands of an excellent driver.

 

Thanks again for the trip! I know the look on our faces Monday was basically "get us the heck out of this state" but I thoroughly enjoyed the chasing experience (and even Beth too, haha).

 

Edit: here is a link to some of the photos Beth took:

https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.10102617344582359.1073741825.8822493&type=1&l=66bd0592cb

 

 

Haha, thanks! You guys picked quite a weekend to come out, and I feel bad that you got a little more "Oklahoma" than you may have bargained for, in good ways and in bad ones. Still, as a first true 'chase' it was probably a valuable lesson/experience to witness and go through. Always happy to have you and be the obligatory driver to get said pictures.

[Ground Scouring]

Posted on Talkweather, just catastrophic damage.

I am still wondering why those newer structures just south of the Plaza Towers Elementary School (upper left in the second image) were not rated F5. They appear to have been cleanly swept away and were near the location of the maximum intensity. I would tend to think that they were not exceptionally well built. On the other hand, is it possible that the survey could not access those homes and instead surveyed from the air, thus assigning an F4 rating to them and perhaps to the Plaza Towers school as well? I know that the Moore tornado on 04/10/2010 was rated F4 based upon an aerial survey of a neighborhood that was difficult to access due to emergency crews and debris.

[Stormchaser11]

The National Weather Service has rated it as an EF5 with winds of 210mph. Yesterday it was upgraded to an EF5 because of the damage, and the wind speeds. 

[JoMo]

Looks like 4 tornadoes confirmed in SW MO (SGF) last night, might be more coming.

 

Looks like we're up to 6 now. The EF-1 tornado near Seneca was what Joplin blew the sirens 3 times for. 

[HM]

Glad you got to see something HM. Sorry it was this one..

 

Thanks Ian and yeah definitely agree with the last statement. There is nothing good about wedges over developed / populated areas and/or hilly/forested areas. And really, the disaster on Monday essentially ended any feeling of victory or accomplishment. Once the news came over the radio, the mood in the car went right out the door (I still feel bad for Jake and everyone I met there having to deal with this).

 

What happened Saturday was more of what we were expecting and obviously the grab you guys had in KS was somewhat more in line with the goal. We did manage to get the tornado in Paul's Valley area on Monday with the supercell(s) south of OKC.... but yeah...

[HM]

Haha, thanks! You guys picked quite a weekend to come out, and I feel bad that you got a little more "Oklahoma" than you may have bargained for, in good ways and in bad ones. Still, as a first true 'chase' it was probably a valuable lesson/experience to witness and go through. Always happy to have you and be the obligatory driver to get said pictures.

 

No one's fault but if we had to pin blame on the weekend choosing, blame us. Not only did the weekend fit with our schedules but it fit in with what was expected long range-wise too. I learned so much and saw so much in 3 days of real storm chasing and I can't say I've quite grasped everything yet. How's everything going with the post-disaster efforts in the area that your involved with? I heard a few unsettling things yesterday from Beth but wasn't sure the extent of it.

 

I think in some sick, twisted way, I would gladly like to chase again with you! haha... next time no poorly located wedges/disasters please!

[tornadotony]

As far as violent tornadoes on three consecutive days, it's happened at least two other times since 1950... April 17-19, 1970 (TX/MS) and June 7-9, 1953 (NE/MI/OH/MA). 1970 barely qualifies as the touchdown on the 18th happened a bit after midnight.

I used SPC days for that analysis since they tend to better capture system evolution.

[andyhb]

The National Weather Service has rated it as an EF5 with winds of 210mph. Yesterday it was upgraded to an EF5 because of the damage, and the wind speeds. 

 

It was given the EF5 rating based on the damage and then a wind speed was estimated for that based on the damage. Unless more radar data has been collected since then, it is still solely based off the damage. The Rozel, KS tornado (EF4) was based on Doppler on Wheels measurements.

 

Oh, and by the way, the Carney tornado has been rated an EF3.

 

...MAY 19 LUTHER-CARNEY TORNADO

  /OKLAHOMA.. LOGAN AND LINCOLN COUNTIES/...

RATING:                  EF3

PATH LENGTH:             20 MILES

PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:    TO BE DETERMINED

TIME:                    4:41 PM - 5:24 PM CDT

LOCATION:                3 NORTHWEST OF LUTHER TO CARNEY TO

                           2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TRYON

[nrgjeff]

Here is my 3-day chase account in reverse chronological order. I want to finish positive. Flying home from Wichita Tuesday: Beautiful Cb and TCu from the plane – an uplifting ending.

 

Monday: Heartbreak in Moore. We ate lunch in Guthrie, OK. Perhaps a little over-confident we had time before initiation, we sat down for lunch. Hey, we had time the previous two days. After eating we targeted growing cells northwest of OKC. Quickly we realized the cell southwest of town would become dominant. Before we could get into position radio reports TOG. We figure it’ll cycle and we’d catch the sup on the east side of town. As we circumnavigate the OKC Metro to the east, crushing heartbreak unfolds on the radio. The schools, the daycare - innocence lost. We drive past Shawnee OK tornado damage from Sunday, adding to weight to the situation. Moore tornado lifts and we wait for a second cycle near that Casino. Emotionally spent we hang back way more than usual for safety. Might have seen the Monday Meeker tornado but we really did not care. When an opening in the rain appeared we drove back to ICT for the morning flight home. Worst chase day of my life since seeing the May 3, 1999 Wichita/Haysville tornado – same day as the other Moore F5. Right now 2013 feels worse.

 

Sunday: Brief hose/rope thru rain near South Haven, KS. Missed Wichita tornado. We started out in Blackwell, OK enjoying a sit-down lunch. Cells go near Wichita and Enid and we elect the Enid cell. KFDI radio in Wichita scares the heck out of us about a large wedge entering ICT. Thankfully it never comes together that way, probably due to worst jet energy down south (Shawnee OK). We view a beautiful sharp barber pole to the south and west of the “Enid” storm which is now crossing the border into Kansas. Quickly we realize the barber pole is cut off by the main sup. Out of position we chase down the main cell around Caldwell, KS and South Haven, KS. The hose touches down as we drive through heavy rain at about 4:30 pm, still out of position. Somehow enough contrast allows us grab photos thru windshield. It ropes out after a few minutes. Then we literally drive around in circles as it back builds for 4 hours, before dropping it and getting some excellent mammatus at sunset photos.

 

Saturday: Beautiful two cycles of photogenic tornadoes, including narrow cones, elephant trunks, a wide stovepipe and a gorgeous long rope out. After landing in ICT I meet up with meteorologist friends and we drive to Greensburg, KS. Green Bean Coffee Breakfast and Lunch is open for a few more minutes. We get lunch at the locally owned place and have plenty of time to sit down. Talked to another local business owner next door, Studio 54, about the 2007 tornado. She wanted to talk about it, but at the same time it was difficult for her. Eerie foreshadowing ahead of Monday. Should have visited the well, but TCu started. We “knew” we had time in that late set-up, but it’s hard to do side activities when Cu is already towering. Instead we spent 4 hours in hot wind waiting and talking to other chasers including Jim Bishop and the Stormgasm crew. Northwest Kansas cell starts to get crazy but we elect to be patient. Tried to tell myself it’s a massive hailer, but we know it dropped a gorgeous cone. Cell on OK border looks better than our Kinsley County cell on radar at first, but our Kinsley County cell starts to look awesome visually. We elect still to be patient. Finally Kinsley County cell visually has excellent mid-level inflow. Only thing we need is lower LCLs to finish the low-levels. Enter LLJ!

 

We pursue this Kinsley County cell. Around 7:00 pm the low levels finally start to shape up. Flat base sharpens up nicely. Wall cloud drops. Before the main tornado, we observe 2-3 semi-horizontal needle funnels out of the wall cloud. We're passing Kinsley around 7:15. We set up shop just east of Rozel by about 7:30. Observe the entire life cycle from wall cloud to funnel to initial elephant trunk. It widens into a stovepipe, briefly looks like a cone, and then has a funky narrow diamond shape for a minute. Changes to another wide stovepipe, almost narrow barrel, before gradually lifting and winding down. We shift east as the sup cycles. About 8:00 another elephant trunk drops. It appears as a photogenic narrow curved cone at times. Then a second tornado drops in front of it! We believe it’s just a funnel but other chasers later say it also touched down. Double trouble! Then we see a long needle/pencil stage before a beautiful extended rope-out, all below an impressive barber pole. At one point the middle of the rope widens before the tornado finally finishes up for the night. The slow-moving storm and easy road network makes this Rozel tornado arguably on the level of the Attica/Harper May 12, 2004 epic event. Rozel was shorter in duration, 2 cycles vs 4-5 cycles, but perhaps Rozel was even more magical. Awesome!

[ZackH]

Finally, here's the full version of our experience with the Rozel/Stanford, KS supercell and tornadoes from 5/18/2013.  We caught the entire lifecycle of the storm.