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The latest RAP model backs the winds at the sfc after 21z in ern KS and nern OK and paints a high-risk, extremely dangerous tornado outbreak with 0-1km EHI over 5, sfc-500 hPa shear of 40-50kt, and what appears to be discrete convection in the QPF output.  Even the areas where the sfc winds aren't as backed face a significant threat by 00z.  The high-res WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW models both have significant discrete convection in that region also.  I'm done with the NAM.

I am a bit concerned with the possibility of a rapidly increasing threat this afternoon.  Hopefully this doesn't catch a bunch of people off guard with OKC, Tulsa, KC and dozens of smaller Joplin size towns within the moderate risk area.  The enhanced risk certainly seems to be over Tulsa, SE KS and SW MO.

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The latest RAP model backs the winds at the sfc after 21z in ern KS and nern OK and paints a high-risk, extremely dangerous tornado outbreak with 0-1km EHI over 5, sfc-500 hPa shear of 40-50kt, and what appears to be discrete convection in the QPF output. Even the areas where the sfc winds aren't as backed face a significant threat by 00z. The high-res WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW models both have significant discrete convection in that region also. I'm done with the NAM.[/quote

The potential is definitely there... But storms will have to remain discrete for that to happen...]

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I am a bit concerned with the possibility of a rapidly increasing threat this afternoon.  Hopefully this doesn't catch a bunch of people off guard with OKC, Tulsa, KC and dozens of smaller Joplin size towns within the moderate risk area.  The enhanced risk certainly seems to be over Tulsa, SE KS and SW MO.

If I recall correctly May 3, 1999 went from slight to high as the day progressed.  Hopefully people will be paying attention.

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The latest RAP model backs the winds at the sfc after 21z in ern KS and nern OK and paints a high-risk, extremely dangerous tornado outbreak with 0-1km EHI over 5, sfc-500 hPa shear of 40-50kt, and what appears to be discrete convection in the QPF output. Even the areas where the sfc winds aren't as backed face a significant threat by 00z. The high-res WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW models both have significant discrete convection in that region also. I'm done with the NAM.[/quote

The potential is definitely there... But storms will have to remain discrete for that to happen...]

I don't find that to be a concern.  We don't have the veer-back-veer profiles that far south that plagued yesterday and shear vectors are perpendicular to the dryline.  Add in the capping ahead of the dryline this afternoon and the convection you get will assuredly be discrete at least until sometime after sunset when the low-level jet really gets cranking.

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Thanks everyone. I have everything outside secured the best that it can be for high winds as I was expecting these things to line out before they made it here. (that may not happen now) My above ground shelter has everything stocked up and ready to go. 

 

We had a strange severe t-storm warning this morning on what looked like a garden variety elevated storm. There wasn't even that much rain. Now the sun has popped back out, I hate when that happens. 

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I don't find that to be a concern. We don't have the veer-back-veer profiles that far south that plagued yesterday and shear vectors are perpendicular to the dryline. Add in the capping ahead of the dryline this afternoon and the convection you get will assuredly be discrete at least until sometime after sunset when the low-level jet really gets cranking.

Oh... Wasn't sure what the models were showing, haven't looked at them for 2-runs. :D
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Totally shameless question (especially coming from an Oklahoma resident) but I've never chased east of 35. How is the chase territory up there? My impression is that it ia decent NW of 44 but any more specifics?

From my limited experience in that area, that seems like a fair assessment.  44 is b to deal with so keep that in mind (not that you don't know that, of course).

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Totally shameless question (especially coming from an Oklahoma resident) but I've never chased east of 35. How is the chase territory up there? My impression is that it ia decent NW of 44 but any more specifics?

North of I-40 is fine until you get to US-69, North of I-44 is better though.

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Totally shameless question (especially coming from an Oklahoma resident) but I've never chased east of 35. How is the chase territory up there? My impression is that it ia decent NW of 44 but any more specifics?

 

It's a little more hilly and there are more trees. Probably a few more towns to deal with when compared to chaser territory. 

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It's a little more hilly and there are more trees. Probably a few more towns to deal with when compared to chaser territory. 

Yeah, there's fewer direct east/west and north/south roads which is problematic.  It is better north of 44 and really gets bad as you get further east towards Arkansas.  

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http://www.stormtrack.org/library/forecast/besttim1.jpg

Of cours a bit southern plains centric..

Not a huge fan of that map.

I've chased eastern Colorado and west/northwest Kansas many times before. It is awesome chase country that can, in large swaths, be on par with the best (flat land/road network-wise) the southern plains has to offer.

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Not a huge fan of that map.

I've chased eastern Colorado and west/northwest Kansas many times before. It is awesome chase country that can, in large swaths, be on par with the best (flat land/road network-wise) the southern plains has to offer.

yeah.. tho he's a great old school chaser (Robert Prentice). it's definitely centric to him it seems... but the eastern bounds around today's stuff look OK at least.

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yeah.. tho he's a great old school chaser (Robert Prentice). it's definitely centric to him it seems... but the eastern bounds around today's stuff look OK at least.

Yeah...agree wholeheartedly on the eastern part which is pretty rough chasing territory until you make it all the way east of Missouri and get to an area of good chase country in Illinois.

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Seems like the MCS wiped clean the upper 60's Dewpoints in Kansas... Not entire confenced they'll comeback either...

 

LLJ down here ( SE Texas) is much more evident today than yesterday. The dry line is still located further W.

 

 

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