CoastalWx Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 SE Kansas looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 The latest RAP model backs the winds at the sfc after 21z in ern KS and nern OK and paints a high-risk, extremely dangerous tornado outbreak with 0-1km EHI over 5, sfc-500 hPa shear of 40-50kt, and what appears to be discrete convection in the QPF output. Even the areas where the sfc winds aren't as backed face a significant threat by 00z. The high-res WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW models both have significant discrete convection in that region also. I'm done with the NAM. I am a bit concerned with the possibility of a rapidly increasing threat this afternoon. Hopefully this doesn't catch a bunch of people off guard with OKC, Tulsa, KC and dozens of smaller Joplin size towns within the moderate risk area. The enhanced risk certainly seems to be over Tulsa, SE KS and SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Wow, seeing reports of a 2 year-old in critical condition after a boat on Milford Lake, KS capsized from the 70 MPH straight line wind gusts last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 The latest RAP model backs the winds at the sfc after 21z in ern KS and nern OK and paints a high-risk, extremely dangerous tornado outbreak with 0-1km EHI over 5, sfc-500 hPa shear of 40-50kt, and what appears to be discrete convection in the QPF output. Even the areas where the sfc winds aren't as backed face a significant threat by 00z. The high-res WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW models both have significant discrete convection in that region also. I'm done with the NAM.[/quote The potential is definitely there... But storms will have to remain discrete for that to happen...] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 I am a bit concerned with the possibility of a rapidly increasing threat this afternoon. Hopefully this doesn't catch a bunch of people off guard with OKC, Tulsa, KC and dozens of smaller Joplin size towns within the moderate risk area. The enhanced risk certainly seems to be over Tulsa, SE KS and SW MO. If I recall correctly May 3, 1999 went from slight to high as the day progressed. Hopefully people will be paying attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 WRF-NMM maximum 0-2-km updraft helicity really nails the OKC area: I think the MDT Risk needs to be extended a bit to the S and W. That is for 0700z this morning (back at 2 AM CDT). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 The latest RAP model backs the winds at the sfc after 21z in ern KS and nern OK and paints a high-risk, extremely dangerous tornado outbreak with 0-1km EHI over 5, sfc-500 hPa shear of 40-50kt, and what appears to be discrete convection in the QPF output. Even the areas where the sfc winds aren't as backed face a significant threat by 00z. The high-res WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW models both have significant discrete convection in that region also. I'm done with the NAM.[/quote The potential is definitely there... But storms will have to remain discrete for that to happen...] I don't find that to be a concern. We don't have the veer-back-veer profiles that far south that plagued yesterday and shear vectors are perpendicular to the dryline. Add in the capping ahead of the dryline this afternoon and the convection you get will assuredly be discrete at least until sometime after sunset when the low-level jet really gets cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Corrected image: WRF-NMM projection for 03Z tonight shows, well, an impressive number of discrete cells with very strong 2-5-km updraft helicity over NE OK / SE KS / SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 SE Kansas looks pretty good. That's what we are thinking. Made it to Wichita last night. Working on picking a town now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Thanks everyone. I have everything outside secured the best that it can be for high winds as I was expecting these things to line out before they made it here. (that may not happen now) My above ground shelter has everything stocked up and ready to go. We had a strange severe t-storm warning this morning on what looked like a garden variety elevated storm. There wasn't even that much rain. Now the sun has popped back out, I hate when that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 So we have a boundary and a 100kt jet at 400mb on the 12z ABQ raob.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Here's our footage from the Kansas tornadoes. What a day. By far my best tornadoes ever. Hoping to top it off with a wedge in more daylight tomorrow or Monday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 I don't find that to be a concern. We don't have the veer-back-veer profiles that far south that plagued yesterday and shear vectors are perpendicular to the dryline. Add in the capping ahead of the dryline this afternoon and the convection you get will assuredly be discrete at least until sometime after sunset when the low-level jet really gets cranking.Oh... Wasn't sure what the models were showing, haven't looked at them for 2-runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Pic snapped from a couple of UofM students out on a chasing trip of a Kansas 'nader... Based on the looks of it, probably the same one as ZackH recorded above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 12z NAM is coming in. I could see them going high risk next update. Sig Tor: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 What's everyone's town of choice today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 What's everyone's town of choice today? Bartlesville OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 What's everyone's town of choice today? Eureka, ks to Iola, ks (if i was going out today) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Totally shameless question (especially coming from an Oklahoma resident) but I've never chased east of 35. How is the chase territory up there? My impression is that it ia decent NW of 44 but any more specifics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Totally shameless question (especially coming from an Oklahoma resident) but I've never chased east of 35. How is the chase territory up there? My impression is that it ia decent NW of 44 but any more specifics? From my limited experience in that area, that seems like a fair assessment. 44 is b to deal with so keep that in mind (not that you don't know that, of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Totally shameless question (especially coming from an Oklahoma resident) but I've never chased east of 35. How is the chase territory up there? My impression is that it ia decent NW of 44 but any more specifics? North of I-40 is fine until you get to US-69, North of I-44 is better though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Totally shameless question (especially coming from an Oklahoma resident) but I've never chased east of 35. How is the chase territory up there? My impression is that it ia decent NW of 44 but any more specifics? It's a little more hilly and there are more trees. Probably a few more towns to deal with when compared to chaser territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 It's a little more hilly and there are more trees. Probably a few more towns to deal with when compared to chaser territory. Yeah, there's fewer direct east/west and north/south roads which is problematic. It is better north of 44 and really gets bad as you get further east towards Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Totally shameless question (especially coming from an Oklahoma resident) but I've never chased east of 35. How is the chase territory up there? My impression is that it ia decent NW of 44 but any more specifics? http://www.stormtrack.org/library/forecast/besttim1.jpgOf cours a bit southern plains centric.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Seems like the MCS wiped clean the upper 60's Dewpoints in Kansas... Not entire confenced they'll comeback either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Osage County should probably be avoided. Half the roads on the map are gated off. Indian Reservation area with buffalo all around. Awful road network and lots of trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messier77 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 http://www.stormtrack.org/library/forecast/besttim1.jpg Of cours a bit southern plains centric.. Not a huge fan of that map. I've chased eastern Colorado and west/northwest Kansas many times before. It is awesome chase country that can, in large swaths, be on par with the best (flat land/road network-wise) the southern plains has to offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Not a huge fan of that map. I've chased eastern Colorado and west/northwest Kansas many times before. It is awesome chase country that can, in large swaths, be on par with the best (flat land/road network-wise) the southern plains has to offer. yeah.. tho he's a great old school chaser (Robert Prentice). it's definitely centric to him it seems... but the eastern bounds around today's stuff look OK at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messier77 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 yeah.. tho he's a great old school chaser (Robert Prentice). it's definitely centric to him it seems... but the eastern bounds around today's stuff look OK at least. Yeah...agree wholeheartedly on the eastern part which is pretty rough chasing territory until you make it all the way east of Missouri and get to an area of good chase country in Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Seems like the MCS wiped clean the upper 60's Dewpoints in Kansas... Not entire confenced they'll comeback either... LLJ down here ( SE Texas) is much more evident today than yesterday. The dry line is still located further W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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