Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 190
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
  
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
  
   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
     WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
  
   * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM UNTIL
     1000 PM CDT.
  
   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
     NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
     SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
       EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
   COLUMBIA MISSOURI TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF JOPLIN MISSOURI.
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
  
   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
  
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
  
   &&
  
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 189...
  
   DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A
   SURFACE COLD FRONT AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WATCH
   AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE CONGEALING INTO ONE OR MORE
   ORGANIZED CLUSTERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  BEFORE UPSCALE GROWTH
   OCCURS...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR
   TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.  THEREAFTER...DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS MAY BECOME THE MORE PROMINENT THREAT.
  
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
  
  
   ...KERR

Link to comment
Share on other sites

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 191
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   110 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
  
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
  
   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWEST TEXAS
  
   * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 110 PM UNTIL
     1000 PM CDT.
  
   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
     NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
       EVENTS TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
  
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF GROVE
   OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES EAST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS.  FOR A COMPLETE
   DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
  
   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
  
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
  
   &&
  
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 189...WW 190...
  
   DISCUSSION...RAPID INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS...BOTH NEAR A STALLED SURFACE FRONT ROUGHLY WEST OF
   THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND NEAR THE PRE-FRONTAL DRYLINE NOSING
   NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH THE MOST
   PROMINENT TORNADO THREAT...WHICH PROBABLY WILL INCREASE BY EARLY
   EVENING AS THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND ENLARGES
   LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.  ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES MAY NOT BE OUT OF
   THE QUESTION. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY...SOME VERY LARGE...
   WITH INCREASING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS
   CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES AND EVOLVES INTO AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER.
  
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
  
  
   ...KERR
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Norman says they have been watching the special balloon launch data and there is still a cap in place across much of central OK but its not very strong and very breakable. Based on this and all hi-res models, they believe storms will begin to initiate in the next hour or so.

post-138-0-98943900-1369073376_thumb.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another watch coming for a big area of TX.

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0727
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0119 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
  
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX
  
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
  
   VALID 201819Z - 202015Z
  
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
  
   SUMMARY...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE
   LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY. AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. A WATCH IS LIKELY BEFORE 20Z.
  
   DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING PERSISTS ACROSS CNTRL/WRN TX WITH VERY
   STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE E OF THE DRYLINE. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS
   TCU INCREASING OVER THROCKMORTON AND YOUNG COUNTIES...WITH
   ADDITIONAL CU SW OF SEP. ALTHOUGH WELL S OF THE JET...DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR VALUES AND OVERALL HODOGRAPH LENGTH WITH INCREASING UPPER
   LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. AMPLE
   MOISTURE AND COLD PROFILES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN VERY LARGE DAMAGING
   HAIL.
  
   THIS EVENING...CAPPING WILL INHIBIT EWD PROGRESSION OF THESE
   CELLS...LIKELY DYING CLOSE TO I-35 BY 03Z.
  
   ..JEWELL/KERR.. 05/20/2013
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
152 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...

RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ALONG THE DRYLINE AND STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS WILL MAINLY
BE ALONG I44 FROM OKC SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG AND EAST OF I35 NORTH
OF OKC. RETURNS ALREADY BEING OBSERVED EAST OF LAWTON. MOST
RECENT MESOANALYSIS AND 18Z SOUNDING SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH/SW OF METRO NE
OF TRIPLE POINT. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN DISCRETE UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS MERGING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL OK
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL...AND THE THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS SE OK. ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY BE
POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW WITH THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING PERHAPS THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS SE OK.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

When was the last time we had 4 moderate risk days in a row?  I can't remember any, other than maybe April 2011.

 

May 22-25, 2011. April 25-27 were all MDT or HIGH, but the 28th was a SLGT.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...