Buckeye05 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 According to KOCO, there are reports of ground scouring in and around the mobile home park. If this the case, then we are probably at least high end EF4 (intense ground scouring/grass removal is a major hallmark of 200+ winds). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Forward storm motions should be similar to yesterday, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Forward storm motions should be similar to yesterday, correct? Looks that way. Although the chase terrain today is further east and not as friendly. If you're going out, be careful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 The more southern target towards the Red River in south central OK is better terrain IMO. But yah, the northern target is garbage terrain wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 The more southern target towards the Red River in south central OK is better terrain IMO. But yah, the northern target is garbage terrain wise. Definitely. About 20 miles either side of the river is surprisingly decent up to 75 miles east of I-35. Even northeast of that to a Purcell-Ada-Atoka line isn't too bad, other than the Arbuckles. I'm scared though since I got burned worse yesterday than I ever thought possible by worrying too much about terrain/traffic/etc. and not what the atmosphere is doing. That said, tail-end Charlie is the obvious play, and that should favor better terrain naturally. River crossings may be the bigger conundrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 For today's target I'm choosing Ardmore, OK, based off of what the GFS is painting. If the NAM verifies, the better area may be just to the south in Texas. Regardless, both the 12z GFS and NAM are looking good for extreme south-central OK into north TX. I'm going to head to the Gainesville area this afternoon and take a look from there. I think any tail-end supercell in this area has high potential to put down strong tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Anyone read/found anything about why the storms just basically collapsed as they approached the Tulsa metro? The environment looked to be better in that area especially after 5:30 or 6pm when the LLJ was supposed to begin ramping up. Instead everything just collapsed, which I found odd. The thing that comes to mind is the LLJ never really got going or it was displaced over what the thoughts were yesterday morning...or maybe the environment was heavily capped? I dunno, we asked some guys at the local office last night and never really got any reasoning/rationale... Would be good to know if we'll see something similar today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 In NWSChat, Norman seems to think initiation will start earlier today, maybe as early as noon-1pm along the I-44 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Anyone read/found anything about why the storms just basically collapsed as they approached the Tulsa metro? The environment looked to be better in that area especially after 5:30 or 6pm when the LLJ was supposed to begin ramping up. Instead everything just collapsed, which I found odd. The thing that comes to mind is the LLJ never really got going or it was displaced over what the thoughts were yesterday morning...or maybe the environment was heavily capped? I dunno, we asked some guys at the local office last night and never really got any reasoning/rationale... Would be good to know if we'll see something similar today.... You can thank my arrival on those storms for saving the Tulsa metro area. In all seriousness, though, RAP analysis indicated increasing CINH beginning about 3 counties E of I-35. Both temperatures and dew points appeared slightly lower in the TUL-MLC corridor than in the environment where the supercells thrived. The way the storms declined in intensity and size relatively quickly is usually indicative of capping problems. As a side note, it's rather amazing how many events your area has dodged a bullet on the past ~10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soonertrey Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Anyone read/found anything about why the storms just basically collapsed as they approached the Tulsa metro? The environment looked to be better in that area especially after 5:30 or 6pm when the LLJ was supposed to begin ramping up. Instead everything just collapsed, which I found odd. The thing that comes to mind is the LLJ never really got going or it was displaced over what the thoughts were yesterday morning...or maybe the environment was heavily capped? I dunno, we asked some guys at the local office last night and never really got any reasoning/rationale... Would be good to know if we'll see something similar today.... I don't really know, but I bet the cap was too strong near Tulsa last night. Today I think we'll see more of a QLCS type of mess instead of discrete supercells in Tulsa, but I wouldn't be surprised if something spins up. I think the big discrete cells will be much further to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 At least there are a number of roads that cross the Red. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Where's everyone's target today? Struggling to decide between northeast of OKC or south of OKC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 We're probably gonna play south of OKC...as it looks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 We're probably gonna play south of OKC...as it looks now. I agree. Heading to Stroud for lunch. Then probably head further south to near Paul's Valley or Ada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 The OKC southward target is looking really, really good right now. Deep low-level moisture is evident on the LMN, OUN, and FWD soundings, and ABQ and AMA are picking up on a stout 90 kt jet on the morning soundings. With a new shortwave approaching, a nice little low should develop and help keep sfc winds southerly to south-southeasterly through the afternoon. With strong lapse rates, high low-level shear, and strong deep-layer shear, it looks like the stage is set for a few more strong to potentially violent tornadoes this afternoon in OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 We are playing Duncan, OK for our initial target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Shawnee is prelim EF4, to no one's surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Toss in the HRRR (along with the 12z 4 KM NAM and the 00z EMC WRF) which suggests the potential for some nasty tail end charlie action along the Red River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Toss in the HRRR (along with the 12z 4 KM NAM and the 00z EMC WRF) which suggests the potential for some nasty tail end charlie action along the Red River. Both your original call and my original call may actually play out here. Violent tors yesterday, today maybe even bigger. It will depend on how quickly everything goes this afternoon and whether or not storms have to compete with each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Going to head down to Norman and then re-evaluate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Congrats to all you guys who bagged tornadoes the last few days. In eastern KS currently. Gonna play southeast KS and see what happens. Morning convection has left a NE/SW oriented boundary with southeast surface winds butting up against it. Dews of 71 in Pittsburg atm. Good luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Both your original call and my original call may actually play out here. Violent tors yesterday, today maybe even bigger. It will depend on how quickly everything goes this afternoon and whether or not storms have to compete with each other. Yeah it is going to be an interesting day. If things indeed cluster early farther N, it is possible the entire line segment surges southward, but most hi-res guidance hints at areas S of the surface low remaining largely capped, with the southern end remaining in a pristine storm environment. I have a feeling there will definitely be local backing/increasing magnitude of the low level flow by 21z to possibly 03z as the lee low/dryline retreats W before the front surges through (along the southern end). It certainly does not have widespread potential like yesterday did, but the local impact may be just as significant as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 1630 SPC OTLK on the TOR probs moved the 10% into STL metro.. wind probs extended to the NE (nudged toward STL) and SW (including all of SE OK now) of the 1300 OTLK's position to include more area Snippet from disco INITIAL TSTMS WILL BECOME SUPERCELLUAR QUICKLY WITH VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY AS HODOGRAPHS/INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE...ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES. THE GREATEST RISK FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST FROM S-CNTRL INTO E-CNTRL OK. BUT WITH PREDOMINANT SWLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE 0-1 KM SHEAR...OVERALL TORNADO INTENSITY/LONGEVITY MAY BE TEMPERED...ESPECIALLY WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE SO QUICKLY. NEVERTHELESS...THIS GROWTH SHOULD YIELD BOWING LINEAR SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF SWATHS OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 My feeling is that the stuff to the north may initiate early and congeal pretty quickly into a mess, much like the SE KS scenario yesterday. Current mesonet obs and visible satellite imagery indicate the triple point setting up around Fort Cobb, OK right now, with a dryline bulge to the south. I think the dryline target is best, as most have noted, with the biggest threat being with the cell that taps into the backed near-surface flow ahead of the triple point. Based on the HRRR runs, this looks to be in a WSW-ENE parallelogram bounded by OKC to the north and Ardmore to the south, perhaps a hair north of where SPC has the 10% hatched area.I don't expect a widespread outbreak out of this at all, as SPC's discussion highlights similar concerns that I've had, but the threat is there for a supercell to find itself in a locally enhanced shear environment and produce a couple significant tornadoes that have a big impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 My feeling is that the stuff to the north may initiate early and congeal pretty quickly into a mess, much like the SE KS scenario yesterday. Current mesonet obs and visible satellite imagery indicate the triple point setting up around Fort Cobb, OK right now, with a dryline bulge to the south. I think the dryline target is best, as most have noted, with the biggest threat being with the cell that taps into the backed near-surface flow ahead of the triple point. Based on the HRRR runs, this looks to be in a WSW-ENE parallelogram bounded by OKC to the north and Ardmore to the south, perhaps a hair north of where SPC has the 10% hatched area. I don't expect a widespread outbreak out of this at all, as SPC's discussion highlights similar concerns that I've had, but the threat is there for a supercell to find itself in a locally enhanced shear environment and produce a couple significant tornadoes that have a big impact. Agree... best chance for TOR will probably be SE of OKC into Ardmore as you state IMO... and latest SPC Public Severe Weather Outlook issued half an hour ago seems to be hitting more on the wind threat than t he tornado threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Norman says they have been watching the special balloon launch data and there is still a cap in place across much of central OK but its not very strong and very breakable. Based on this and all hi-res models, they believe storms will begin to initiate in the next hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0726.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OK INTO NWRN TX AND SERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 201726Z - 201930Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS ALL POSSIBLE. TWO WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED SOON FROM KS INTO N TX. DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM SERN KS INTO NRN OK AND BENDING SWWD W OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. FARTHER SW...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER NWRN TX...ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING SW ACROSS W TX. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CU ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM NRN OK INTO SERN KS WHERE A DEEP MOIST LAYER EXISTS. GIVEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THETA-E AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...THIS AREA COULD BE WHERE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. LONG HODOGRAPHS AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL...AND LOW LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS. TO THE S...AN EXTREMELY VOLATILE AIR MASS EXISTS WITH AN INCREASING CU FIELD FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK WHERE STRONG HEATING PERSISTS. WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...VERY LARGE VERTICAL ACCELERATIONS...AS WELL AS HODOGRAPH AUGMENTATION NEAR THE SFC FRONT WILL AID IN TORNADO POTENTIAL. HP SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONG MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLE RAIN-WRAPPED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE BOWS...AND RAPIDLY EXPAND NEWD ACROSS ERN OK LATER THIS EVENING PER MULTIPLE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS. ..JEWELL/KERR.. 05/20/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Day 2 1730 didnt shift very much at all with regards to the MOD risk zone compared with 0800z.. NE TX into ARK including Little Rock looks pretty good for play tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Congrats to all that decided to chase this system, best multi-day chase scenario in recent memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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