andyhb Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 And by the way, the NSSL WRF looks equally nasty, check out the hooks it is resolving. http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/OUN/refl_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 ha... I don't think I've ever seen anything on it quite like this, but I don't always check it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Jeff P's Rozel experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 ha... I don't think I've ever seen anything on it quite like this, but I don't always check it. Obviously getting specific here, but those are some high impact areas those things are tracking through/near. The north one comes from Northern OK county (Edmond) and the southern one moves perilously close to Norman and is heading towards Shawnee in that image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Its amazing how many people have almost the same pictures, and there really wasnt any issue with convergence on that cell at all. I think some people got impatient and either went way up north or down to the OK/KS border and missed the cell right in the middle. While sitting at the Dillons in Greensburg and seeing every chaser in the hemishpere either drive by or stop there I thought it was going to be a rough evening. When I moved to the corner of 183 and 54 and watched the base start looking really good on that cell I decided to see it through and that really paid off. When it started tightening up, it seemed like the cell was almost stationary for around 15 minutes or so. I'm almost glad that the police set up a roadblock or else I would have missed that crzy rope tornado at the end. All in all, that was an amazing day and it will be hard to top for those who were lucky enough to get on that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 D1 is a moderate with 10% tornado probs. D2 is also a moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Has Mcpherson, Ks on western edge of moderate risk area and 10% tornado probs also fixed video found in last page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Not sure I totally buy the high LCL mention in the day 1, only one model has high LCLs and it is the same model that is inconsistent compared to the others, being of course the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Not sure I totally buy the high LCL mention in the day 1, only one model has high LCLs and it is the same model that is inconsistent compared to the others, being of course the NAM. Not sure I buy that either. I have a question though, what role will the rain that has fallen in the outlooked area play? Would that not go into evaporation and thereby locally lowering LCL heights? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Not sure I buy that either. I have a question though, what role will the rain that has fallen in the outlooked area play? Would that not go into evaporation and thereby locally lowering LCL heights? It should, which is part of the reason why I am not buying the higher LCLs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Wow, what a day! 4 tornadoes and just spectacular ones at that! By far the most beautiful tornadoes I've ever seen. Can't wait for Sunday/Monday! Pictures and video later but they look like most everyone else's. In Wichita for the night. Looks like we are almost perfect for tomorrow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 The problem with the NAM is with the dewpoints, it is mixing out the dewpoints at the surface in some cases below 65 tomorrow, especially in OK. I just don't see that happening tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Had a good chase on Sat. Saw a few tors, all of which were photogenic. Have tons of pics and video to post at a later time. Staying in Great Bend for the night. Early target for Sun looks to be SE. KS down into C. OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 The 12z GFS continues it's trend and IMO looks even better than the Euro for chasing and actually pretty nice heading into 17-19th with with some decent little setups as early as next Tues in TX. Probably it's best run in at least the last 3-4 days. You're really grasping straws now... lol. Any who, I'm really happy you got on to some good stuff to make up for the meh weather for a good while now. May you and the rest of the SS's have continued successful and safe chases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Tomorrow looks like a very interesting day regardless of which solution you choose. The potential is there for a higher end event, but the spectrum continues to be wide with a potential tornado outbreak (00z GFS/00z WRF-NMM and to a degree ECMWF) to a more marginal severe weather event (NAM/RAP). Even then, NAM/RAP show some higher end potential farther north across SE and SC Kansas near a weak secondary synoptic surface low. TornadoTony summed it up well with the statement regarding high end potential even with the least favorable solutions, but there is quite a large difference between the outbreak GFS and marginal NAM. Monday, to me, looks potentially more potent, and is far more favorable from a synoptic standpoint (IMHO) as the secondary shortwave/speed max ejects the plains...with a well developed 996-999 hpa lee cyclone in the vicinity of the TX Panhandle. The PV anomaly interacting with the jet max eventually forms into a highly favorable divergent core of UL flow over northern OK, with some of the more favorable solutions (once again, the GFS and to a degree the ECMWF) backing the low level flow with a well defined and strongly convergent N/S oriented dryline (combined with backing all the way into the eastern TX Panhandle. Capping will be apparent, but all global/meso/local scale models, at this point, initiate convection late as the upper speed max ejects into the plains (with some of the high res local models depicting multiple discrete supercells raking the warm sector). 00z GFS has some classic long, looping hodographs across the warm sector which would be favorable, given the progged thermodynamics and synoptics, for a substantial severe weather outbreak. Even the less favorable NAM suggests outbreak potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Anybody else concerned that the MCS over Kansas could ruin everything today? Also, does the 10% tornado probs. seem A little low, with all the potential we have... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Just a quick ob: SPC Mesoanalysis at 850 mb for 10z has a 138 m contour closed off over northern or NE SD. 00z GFS had a 138 modeled for 09z, but farther south. 00z NAM bottom out at (I believe) 141 m, and its 141 contour was smaller than the current 138. In other words, the main cyclone may be a touch stronger than modeled, which is probably a good thing regarding tornado potential later on this evening, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Also, it hasn't been discussed much at all, but the IA/NE border is another possible area of activity this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Anybody else concerned that the MCS over Kansas could ruin everything today? Also, does the 10% tornado probs. seem A little low, with all the potential we have... I really do not think so. The warm sector is already clear of DMC and low clouds, and the current MCS over eastern KS should rapidly weaken and move into northern MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Just a quick ob: SPC Mesoanalysis at 850 mb for 10z has a 138 m contour closed off over northern or NE SD. 00z GFS had a 138 modeled for 09z, but farther south. 00z NAM bottom out at (I believe) 141 m, and its 141 contour was smaller than the current 138. In other words, the main cyclone may be a touch stronger than modeled, which is probably a good thing regarding tornado potential later on this evening, right? I think that is too simplistic way of looking at the current situation. If anything a stronger leading low is unfavorable for later afternoon activity, but I would take the early morning RAP simulations with a grain of salt at this moment. I have yet to see any reason to put much trust in the RAP with larger scale synoptics 12+ hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Nice shots Ian and everyone else. Good luck out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 15% hatched tornado now... and now I'm in it. Sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 15% hatched tornado now... and now I'm in it. Sucks. ... You'll get through it, man, you guys are some of the toughest people around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Nowcasting question: There is a leading wave of sorts at H5 along the KS-NE border according to 12Z SPC analyses. The mid-level winds in this area are backed, rather than slightly veered, and were not really well forecast by the GFS or the NAM, each of which showed veered winds at 12Z today. Would the trend not imply a stronger secondary surface low later today? Edit: WRF and, less significantly, RAP trends seem to reflect this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 JoMo, we are uplifting prayers for awareness of the situation for those in affected areas today and the wisdom to take warnings seriously with a plan of action. Stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 The latest RAP model backs the winds at the sfc after 21z in ern KS and nern OK and paints a high-risk, extremely dangerous tornado outbreak with 0-1km EHI over 5, sfc-500 hPa shear of 40-50kt, and what appears to be discrete convection in the QPF output. Even the areas where the sfc winds aren't as backed face a significant threat by 00z. The high-res WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW models both have significant discrete convection in that region also. I'm done with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 JoMo, we are uplifting prayers for awareness of the situation for those in affected areas today and the wisdom to take warnings seriously with a plan of action. Stay safe. I cannot repeat this more earnestly, especially the bolded. Good luck, JoMo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Stay safe JoMo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 Loaded-gun sounding at 12Z in FWD: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 19, 2013 Share Posted May 19, 2013 The latest RAP model backs the winds at the sfc after 21z in ern KS and nern OK and paints a high-risk, extremely dangerous tornado outbreak with 0-1km EHI over 5, sfc-500 hPa shear of 40-50kt, and what appears to be discrete convection in the QPF output. Even the areas where the sfc winds aren't as backed face a significant threat by 00z. The high-res WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW models both have significant discrete convection in that region also. I'm done with the NAM. Yep too many holes in the NAM's progs compared to all the other models, I'd be shocked if it ended up correct on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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