Tropical Thread 2013

[phlwx]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area4#contents

 

This might burn off the "H" name. I also wouldn't be shocked if it pulls an Erin.

[phlwx]

lol

 

 

gonna save those for winter as well?

[am19psu]

gonna save those for winter as well?

No need to save. I have a limitless supply.

[Harbourton]

If 98L can hold together, the GFS ensemble does not want to make this a fish storm.

 

 

[phlwx]

91l probably becomes TD 9 later today.

 

then adam can 'lol' it when it fishes at 40W.

[phlwx]

wouldn't shock me if the strongest storm of the year is ingrid. thing's blowin' up something fierce in the boc.

[Harbourton]

wouldn't shock me if the strongest storm of the year is ingrid. thing's blowin' up something fierce in the boc.

Got up to 80mph before the shear took effect. May not even be a hurricane anymore.

[Mitchell Gaines]

First interesting set-up of the year tropics wise for days 7-12. 12z EC has a low off the Carolina coast in this period. Low pressure in the gulf rides northeast across FL off the east coast with potential blocking high to the northeast. 

[Brian5671]

First interesting set-up of the year tropics wise for days 7-12. 12z EC has a low off the Carolina coast in this period. Low pressure in the gulf rides northeast across FL off the east coast with potential blocking high to the northeast. 

would that be tropical or just a glorified nor' easter?

[am19psu]

would that be tropical or just a glorified nor' easter?

Glorified nor'easter more likely at this time. Don't want to rule out anything more, though, with the warm SSTs

[tombo82685]

The 0z euro wants to take invest 95l into the gulph coast states then bring it up the coat to about delaware. Then turns it east then southeast as it hits the blocking in up north. The cold front that is coming in from the west gets hung up over the mountains dumping good rains then the invest 95l rides up a long it.

 

Euro shows 2-5 inches of rain from it, with the most in jersey and along the coast

[vogelhund]

I'm heading to Tampa Bay on October 10 for the Eagles and a little R&R. Whats the long range tropical forcast say??

[NaoPos]

I'm heading to Tampa Bay on October 10 for the Eagles and a little R&R. Whats the long range tropical forcast say??

Don't expect much as of now.

[AvantHiatus]

Don't expect much as of now.

Still expecting some homebrew off the SE coast before the season is over; probably a non-threatening event with this pattern.

[Harbourton]

Best looking invest in awhile.

 

[chubbs]

Continues to look good this evening.. Similar to recent runs, 18z GFS gives us a good soaking as remnants move up the coast along a stalled front. 

[dryslotted]

Continues to look good this evening.. Similar to recent runs, 18z GFS gives us a good soaking as remnants move up the coast along a stalled front.

Kind of a neat run. It looks like it phases on it's way up NE from the GOM. As you say, passes the heaviest precip right over the area...

[chubbs]

A strong tropical storm this AM. 00z GFS run pushed remnants east of our area. 06z came back west a bit.  

[Boch23]

A strong tropical storm this AM. 00z GFS run pushed remnants east of our area. 06z came back west a bit.  

 

 

Seems like if you want rain for this area you want a track further west down in the gulf. If you want to see a hurricane down south and less rain for the area then you want a more east track down in the gulf.

 

At least thats what I've gathered.

[famartin]

Seems like if you want rain for this area you want a track further west down in the gulf. If you want to see a hurricane down south and less rain for the area then you want a more east track down in the gulf.

 

At least thats what I've gathered.

It has much more to do with what side of the track, and how close the track is, to this area than where it comes from.  Remember Floyd wasn't even IN the Gulf.  The heaviest rains during extratropical transition are on the left side of the track... usually that's the west side.  During Sandy, that was the south side, which is why Delaware got pounded with rain and north Jersey/NYC were spared the heavy rains.  The winds are on the right side, generally speaking... which is why the worst winds often miss this area, but in the case of Sandy, slammed north Jersey and NYC the worst.

[mcwx]

It has much more to do with what side of the track, and how close the track is, to this area than where it comes from.  Remember Floyd wasn't even IN the Gulf.  The heaviest rains during extratropical transition are on the left side of the track... usually that's the west side.  During Sandy, that was the south side, which is why Delaware got pounded with rain and north Jersey/NYC were spared the heavy rains.  The winds are on the right side, generally speaking... which is why the worst winds often miss this area, but in the case of Sandy, slammed north Jersey and NYC the worst.

 

Wasn't Floyd preceded by a PRE event which helped make the flooding so bad? IIRC, it poured all morning followed by the COC remnants late in the afternoon

[famartin]

Wasn't Floyd preceded by a PRE event which helped make the flooding so bad? IIRC, it poured all morning followed by the COC remnants late in the afternoon

A stationary front in the area helped wring out extra moisture, but it was mostly Floyd.  Without Floyd... it wouldn't have rained all morning.

[Harbourton]

With the weird tracks we have had with Irene and Sandy, I wouldn't be half surprised if 98L makes it across the Atlantic.

 

 

Plenty of warm water out there if it can survive the dry air and not re curve,

 

[am19psu]

Not local, but TC Phailin in the NIO is going to be a huge humanitarian catastrophe in India

[snowlurker]

Prayers are needed for India. The landfall-predicted wind speeds and pressure are incredible.

[Boch23]

Winds up to 160MPH gust up to 195MPH being reported.....yeah.

[NaoPos]

Bad timing for an ERC, and the new eye has warmed/strengthened considerably.

[Harbourton]

From Jeff Masters at Wunderground - I hope those people on the coast are running inland.

 

  Extremely dangerous Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Phailin is closing in on the northeast coast of India on the Bay of Bengal. Phailin put on a phenomenal burst of rapid intensification on Thursday, going from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds in just 24 hours. After reaching peak intensity near 8 pm EDT Thursday, Phailin--whose name means "a sapphire" in Thai--began an eyewall replacement cycle. The eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger-diameter eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. This process typically weakens the top winds of a tropical cyclone by 5 - 15 mph, and satellite estimates of Phailin's central pressure increased from 910 mb to 934 mb during the eyewall replacement cycle, from 04 - 11 UTC Friday. However, satellite images show that Phailin has completed its eyewall replacement cycle and is now re-intensifying, with the cloud tops of the very intense thunderstorms in the eyewall expanding and cooling, as updrafts in the eyewall grow stronger and push the clouds higher into the atmosphere. The latest satellite estimate of Phailin's central pressure had dropped to 920 mb as of 13 UTC (9 am EDT) on Friday, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center upped Phailin's intensity to a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds in their 11 am EDT Friday advisory. Radar out of Visakhapanam, India shows that heavy rains from the outer bands of Phailin are already affecting the coast, and these bands were bringing rainfall rates of over an inch per hour, as estimated by microwave data from 10:55 UTC Friday. Phailin is over ocean waters that have warmed since Thursday, and are now 29 - 30°C. These warm waters extend to a lesser depth than before, and ocean heat content has dropped to a moderate 20 - 40 kJ/cm^2. Wind shear remains low, 5 - 10 knots.

[NaoPos]

Will be interesting to see, now that the season is all but over, why things went the way they did. Seems like even the most of conservative forecasts busted.

[Harbourton]

Not quite done yet - TD 13