am19psu Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Rainer. Any chance some of that moisture reaching up here to relieve the parched conditions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted July 8, 2013 Share Posted July 8, 2013 Seems to be early for a long track Atlantic storm. May be an early start to the Cape Verde season? Wave train looks pretty active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Strong Bermuda high will keep any disturbances forming off Africa from re curving in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Up to 30% Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant. Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information Archived Outlooks GIS data: .shp ZCZC MIATWOAT ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL200 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2013FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...1. A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ISLOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZEDTODAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLEFOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE BECOMING LESSCONDUCIVE LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURSAS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDEISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.FORECASTER STEWART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Dorian, come out and plaaayy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 lol That's been your official forecast the last 4 years outside of Sandy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 7, 2013 Share Posted August 7, 2013 Looks like the dry air coming off Africa is at an end. Any spin coming off Africa now should have a good envelop of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted August 18, 2013 Share Posted August 18, 2013 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE/movies/splitE5.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 19, 2013 Author Share Posted August 19, 2013 lol...erin just got pwned by that SAL plume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 When was the last cat 3 storm in the ATL basin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 When was the last cat 3 storm in the ATL basin? Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 With the SAL decreasing and the MJO entering a favorable stage, I think this wave exiting Africa will have to be monitored closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 With the SAL decreasing and the MJO entering a favorable stage, I think this wave exiting Africa will have to be monitored closely. The latest GFS and Euro runs develop that wave only once it gets out into the central North Atlantic. There is still a decent SAL to the north of the wave which perhaps is the reason for the delayed development of the system by the models. The lack of a strong cyclonic circulation at least may prevent any of the dry continental air from wrapping around the system. The timing of the negative upper-level VP anomalies associated with the MJO/Kelvin wave looks good to maintain the system and perhaps develop it in the next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 25, 2013 Author Share Posted August 25, 2013 Fantasy land on the GFS and Euro ensembling suggest the possibility of an East Coast threat in about two weeks. Not a consensus but a number of individual members suggest a close brush. (and, yes, the 6z GFS had a lolz scenario this morning) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 The latest GFS and Euro runs develop that wave only once it gets out into the central North Atlantic. There is still a decent SAL to the north of the wave which perhaps is the reason for the delayed development of the system by the models. The lack of a strong cyclonic circulation at least may prevent any of the dry continental air from wrapping around the system. The timing of the negative upper-level VP anomalies associated with the MJO/Kelvin wave looks good to maintain the system and perhaps develop it in the next week or so. What are these? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 What are these? VP stands for velocity potential, which is a quantity in fluid dynamics related to divergence. I won't go into too much detail because there's some math involved but VP can be thought of as proportional to the negative of the divergence field. The VP field also tends to be less noisy than the divergence which is one reason it is useful to track the MJO. So negative upper-level VP anomalies imply that there is divergence aloft and therefore large-scale lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 VP stands for velocity potential, which is a quantity in fluid dynamics related to divergence. I won't go into too much detail because there's some math involved but VP can be thought of as proportional to the negative of the divergence field. The VP field also tends to be less noisy than the divergence which is one reason it is useful to track the MJO. So negative upper-level VP anomalies imply that there is divergence aloft and therefore large-scale lift. So they would encourage t-storm formation around any low level vortex that forms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 So they would encourage t-storm formation around any low level vortex that forms? Yes, any system that forms would be in a favorable environment for convection at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Yawn. It's about as scientific as I can make this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 What an incredibly weak season. Wonder if thhis is in record territory. Atlantic Tropical Cyclones of 2013 Tropical Cyclone Name Start Date Max Wind Speed (kt) ACE (104 kt2) ANDREA June 05, 2013 55 1.83 BARRY June 19, 2013 40 0.565 CHANTAL July 08, 2013 55 2.0925 DORIAN July 24, 2013 50 2.62 ERIN August 15, 2013 35 1.1025 FERNAND August 25, 2013 50 0.6975 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 31, 2013 Author Share Posted August 31, 2013 What an incredibly weak season. Wonder if thhis is in record territory. Atlantic Tropical Cyclones of 2013 Tropical Cyclone Name Start Date Max Wind Speed (kt) ACE (104 kt2) ANDREA June 05, 2013 55 1.83 BARRY June 19, 2013 40 0.565 CHANTAL July 08, 2013 55 2.0925 DORIAN July 24, 2013 50 2.62 ERIN August 15, 2013 35 1.1025 FERNAND August 25, 2013 50 0.6975 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#Atlantic_hurricane_seasons_by_ACE_index.2C_1950.E2.80.932013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 3, 2013 Author Share Posted September 3, 2013 [bendy mod] lol [/bendy mod] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 ^^^^Si. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 3, 2013 Share Posted September 3, 2013 What an incredibly weak season. Wonder if thhis is in record territory. Atlantic Tropical Cyclones of 2013 Tropical Cyclone Name Start Date Max Wind Speed (kt) ACE (104 kt2) ANDREA June 05, 2013 55 1.83 BARRY June 19, 2013 40 0.565 CHANTAL July 08, 2013 55 2.0925 DORIAN July 24, 2013 50 2.62 ERIN August 15, 2013 35 1.1025 FERNAND August 25, 2013 50 0.6975 I think we have a real shot at 77, and if things stay dead, 83 and 82. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 the GFS hasn't shown anything remotely promising outside of a possible cape verde fish depression. Euro not showing anything either. I remember the days when the winter weenies could tease the trop dude's or vice versa. It's just been flat out depressing weather wise since sandy. Last cat 5 in the ATL basin were 07'. Dean & Felix. Last Cat 4 were Katia and Ophelia in 2011*FIXED... I'm an idiot. I had the lists according to 1 category strength, not the life cycle. MY apologies. Good catch adam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 the GFS hasn't shown anything remotely promising outside of a possible cape verde fish depression. Euro not showing anything either. I remember the days when the winter weenies could tease the trop dude's or vice versa. It's just been flat out depressing weather wise since sandy. I, for one, am not complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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