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May 19-22 Severe Weather Threat


Hoosier

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The cells NE of Quincy and SW of Peoria look like they mean business. Man are those things moving. Trying to form into a bow echo it seems.

 

 

more unstable air is trying to advect north as seen by sharp dp rises south of I80 but atmosphere around Chicago still struggling to recover.

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TOG near Hannibal.
 

TORNADO WARNINGILC001-149-MOC127-173-210100-/O.NEW.KLSX.TO.W.0021.130521T0030Z-130521T0100Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO730 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  WEST CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  SOUTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...  NORTHEASTERN RALLS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...* UNTIL 800 PM CDT* AT 725 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HANNIBAL...AND  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  BROADCAST MEDIA ARE           REPORTING A RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO IN HANNIBAL.  IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.           SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL           OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.           EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  FALL CREEK AROUND 735 PM CDT.  PAYSON AROUND 740 PM CDT.  BEVERLY AROUND 755 PM CDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE SEEHORN...HULL...PLAINVILLE...ADAMS...RICHFIELD...LIBERTY...KINGSTON AND KELLERVILLE.
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH 193 TO  
INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY  
 
IN ILLINOIS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES  
 
IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS  
 
DE WITT LOGAN MACON  
MARSHALL MCLEAN PEORIA  
TAZEWELL WOODFORD  
 
IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS  
 
STARK  
 
IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS  
 
KNOX  

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Whew what an interesting last few hours.  Hannibal, Mo is right across the river from my families farm.  They went to the storm cellar for that one.  My Dad said it was "one hell of a storm."  No damage to report on the farm though thankfully.  Here in Pittsfield we got some very heavy rain, and I'd guess 30-40mph winds.  I see some small branches down but nothing significant.  We did lose power for a few minutes though. 

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Severe thunderstorm warning west of Joliet, IL.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGILC063-093-099-210230-/O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0016.130521T0155Z-130521T0230Z/BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL855 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  NORTHWESTERN GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...  SOUTHWESTERN KENDALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...  EASTERN LA SALLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...* UNTIL 930 PM CDT* AT 850 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A  LINE EXTENDING FROM NAPLATE TO GRAND RIDGE TO STREATOR...AND MOVING  NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...  MARSEILLES AROUND 900 PM CDT.  SENECA AROUND 905 PM CDT.  SERENA AND SHERIDAN AROUND 910 PM CDT.  NEWARK AROUND 920 PM CDT.  PLANO AROUND 925 PM CDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE MILLINGTON AND LISBON.
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It looks like the strongest storms in and around the Chicago area would produce half dollar size hail, wind gust over 60mph, cloud to ground lightning, and heavy rain. I have my windows open, nice breeze and the winds have picked up in the last ten minutes, it also feels somewhat colder.

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Severe thunderstorm heading right towards Chicago.

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGILC031-043-093-197-210400-/O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0018.130521T0258Z-130521T0400Z/BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL958 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...  SOUTHEASTERN DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...  EASTERN KENDALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...  NORTHWESTERN WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT* AT 955 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A  LINE EXTENDING FROM OSWEGO TO PLAINFIELD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT  40 MPH.  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...  NAPERVILLE AND ROMEOVILLE AROUND 1005 PM CDT.  WOODRIDGE AND LEMONT AROUND 1010 PM CDT.  WHEATON AND LISLE AROUND 1015 PM CDT.  YORK CENTER AND LOMBARD AROUND 1020 PM CDT.  VILLA PARK AND ADDISON AROUND 1025 PM CDT.  NORTHLAKE AND ELMHURST AROUND 1030 PM CDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE GLENBARD SOUTH...WILLOWBROOK...OAKBROOK TERRACE...BRIDGEVIEW...MCCOOK...LA GRANGEPARK...BROADVIEW...BERKELEY...HOMETOWN AND RIVER GROVE.  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHICAGO.
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Wow, Flash Flood warning already issued for the inner city areas of Chicago.


FLASH FLOOD WARNINGILC031-INC089-210730-/O.NEW.KLOT.FF.W.0009.130521T0322Z-130521T0730Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDFLASH FLOOD WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL1022 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...  EASTERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...  NORTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...* UNTIL 230 AM CDT* AT 1016 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED  THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE CHICAGO  AREA WITH MORE STORMS TO TRACK OVER THE CITY THROUGH EARLY  OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR HAVE BEEN  OBSERVED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL CONTINUE. TOTAL  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE EXPECTED...MUCH OF THAT  OCCURRING IN A LESS THAN ONE TO ONE AND A HALF HOUR PERIOD.* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO  OCCUR IN CHICAGO AND NEARBY HIGHLY URBANIZED  SUBURBS...PARTICULARLY IN THE TYPICAL FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

 

 

 

Few small cells about in here.

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I guess we'll wait and see, this far east.

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0741
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL IN / E-CNTRL AND SRN IL / FAR SERN MO / FAR
WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 210325Z - 210430Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST FARTHER E
OVER NRN-WRN IND SWD TO THE MS/OH RIVER CONFLUENCE REGION TONIGHT.
2 SEPARATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE PROPOSED.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED QLCS FROM NRN IL
SWWD INTO SWRN AR. A RECENTLY MEASURED 60 KT WIND GUST FROM AN ASOS
AROUND 35 MIN AGO IN THE GREATER ST. LOUIS AREA INDICATES THIS QLCS
IS LIKELY PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INSTABILITY ARE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE TO SUSTAIN THIS QLCS WELL INTO THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS DOWNSTREAM OVER FAR SERN MO AND SRN IL...EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO W-CNTRL IN AND FAR WRN KY LATER TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A
BRIEF WEAK TORNADO IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER
MESOVORTEX...CURRENT THINKING IS WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT/CONCERN.

..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 05/21/2013

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