weathergy Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Looks like the southern end of the line is going to fill in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 88/53 here in Western Springs, Winds are W @ 30+ Sun is shining, and it is dry, and kind of nice out side right now. Just got a call from my son who lives in Texas, he is in Oklahoma, chasing storms at the moment, and he is targeting a decent cell coming out of Wichita Falls and moving NE. Looks pretty active down that way again today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Izzi punts until late tonight...door closing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Izzi punts until late tonight...door closing What's funny about this is all the severe weather that happens west of us, including in the Plains (where they haven't seen nearly as much rain this spring as many of us), and yet still we can't avoid near desert like conditions when there finally is a decent chance of severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 The SPC WRF from last night may have been onto something. It held off on redevelopment across IA/IL until closer to 00z, not getting into Chicago until after 6z. The 12z run did speed up the timing by several hours but we'd have to see development very soon for that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Certainly don't mean to clutter this or the other thread, but holy sh*t to that Moore, OK tornado. Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 Certainly don't mean to clutter this or the other thread, but holy sh*t to that Moore, OK tornado. Awful. Dude...no way. Check the PM I just sent. Out of all the things we've repeated over the years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Dude...no way. Check the PM I just sent. Out of all the things we've repeated over the years... It's not even weird anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Certainly don't mean to clutter this or the other thread, but holy sh*t to that Moore, OK tornado. Awful. Breaks my heart. Joplin is near and dear to me but you never want anything like that to be repeated. I am just thankful for a far less eventful tornado season for Indiana and pray for those who have seen this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 MD for a possible watch: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0729.html Some cells trying to get going in east-central IL at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Breaks my heart. Joplin is near and dear to me but you never want anything like that to be repeated. I am just thankful for a far less eventful tornado season for Indiana and pray for those who have seen this. Yeah, tough to see the aftermath being shown right now. Always is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 next level stuff for sure down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Looks like the southern end of the line is going to fill in. Yep. Still no signs of storms at this time, but very hot/humind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Yep. Still no signs of storms at this time, but very hot/humind. Outflow boundary evident on base velocity from the storms up in the thumb. It's heading southeast, and we've got plenty of time I'd say. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 No go for the lower two tiers of SEMI I'd say... At least with this line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Hi res actually did really well today in semi with regards to convention location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 New Tornado Watch issued that includes STL metro and west-central IL. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0193.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 I may have been a little too skeptical about the overnight severe threat around here. Models don't kill off the instability too much. I'll feel better about overnight prospects if temps hang in the 70s and dewpoints come up some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 I may have been a little too skeptical about the overnight severe threat around here. Models don't kill off the instability too much. I'll feel better about overnight prospects if temps hang in the 70s and dewpoints come up some. Seems likely we'll stay in the 70's, but not sure how much dews will come up. It's juicy to our southwest in southern IL, but of course drier just to our northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 No go for the lower two tiers of SEMI I'd say... At least with this line. But you know what? I ain't even mad about it. Overall, it was a gorgeous day. Besides, there's still tomorrow, and still a good 4 months of severe weather season to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 Seems likely we'll stay in the 70's, but not sure how much dews will come up. It's juicy to our southwest in southern IL, but of course drier just to our northwest. Tough to say. Our source region is from downstate and drier air aloft probably won't be able to mix down to the surface as well later tonight. If I had to bet one way or another I'd say there would be a very slow increase perhaps into the upper 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 I might get clipped, looks like this will miss metro Detroit unless there is more redevelopment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 544 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 544 PM CDT LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS PAINTING A MUCH CLEARER PICTURE OF THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND THREAT THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION SHOWS UP NICELY IN FORM OF CUMULUS CONGESTUS FIELD EXTENDING FROM NEAR KRZL WEST TO KAAA TO KUIN. SATELLITE SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AT OVER 20KT WITH AN IMPRESSIVE JUMP IN DEWPOINTS NOTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY. SFC OBS SHOW ABOUT A 10F JUMP IN TDS AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SFC BASED CAPE. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE BACKED MORE SOUTH TO EVEN SOUTHEASTERLY RESULTING IN STRONGER DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES COMPARED TO IN THE MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE FRONT. RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS STRENGTHENING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS RETREATING BOUNDARY. SEVERAL SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AT THIS TIME AND WOULD ANTICIPATE THESE STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO A QLCS AND POTENTIALLY ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND LIKELY NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATER THIS EVENING. WHILE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING RESULTING IN FAIRLY QUICK DESTABILIZATION...THIS COULD BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY NOCTURNAL COOLING. EVEN SO...THERE IS A VERY REAL THREAT THAT THE SEVERE STORMS OVER MISSOURI COULD GAIN SUFFICIENT MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION TO MAINTAIN A PRETTY DECENT SEVERE THREAT INTO OUR CWA MID TO LATE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST YOU GO OVER OUR AREA. EXPECTATION IS THAT THE PRIMARY STORM MODE WILL BE LINEAR BY THE TIME STORMS ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA...GIVEN THIS AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THINK THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH A SOMEWHAT LOWER SECONDARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. CURRENTLY...SFC OBS SHOW A LESSER DEFINED BUT SECONDARY PUSH OF MORE MOIST AIR LAGGING THE INITIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BY ABOUT 100MI TO THE SOUTH WITH TDS CLOSER TO 70F THERE. ASSUMING THIS REALLY GOOD MOISTURE DOES NOT CATCH UP WITH THE RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS EVENING THEN THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY LOW. GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND POTENTIAL FOR THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO STILL BE ALIGNED SOMEWHAT PERPENDICULARLY TO THE QLCS THE TORNADO THREAT IS NOT TOTALLY ZERO LATER THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOW/PSEUDO WARM FRONT THIS EVENING...BUT THE MORE ORGANIZED THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL 01-02Z OVER FAR SOUTHWEST CWA SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 nice work with the regular updates from Gino...sounds like a weakening borderline event is possible for the city which is certainly better than a total miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Went chasing today and saw 2" diameter hail on the ground near Rodney MI. Found this following just behind the initial supercell that formed near Fremont MI and moved into Mecosta Co. Biggest stone I've ever seen in person. Would have been nice to actually see them as they fell but I didn't dare punch into that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Skies are getting very dark in Hanover now, under a severe thunderstorm warning...maybe I'll lose power amidst this insane day. Is this a bowing segment coming for me? I don't know many details because of how crazy things are getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Either this person's hand is much smaller than mine or I didn't find nearly the biggest stone. Looks like all the pictures are from Rodney MI shortly after 2:00 PM. http://interactives.woodtv.com/photomojo/gallery/7465/145688/may-20-2013-severe-weather/rodney-mi/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Those are some very interesting cells getting ready to cross the river between Quincy and St. Louis in Mark Twain country. Been so busy in the central/western forum I forgot to look over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 OT I know, but a round tornado warning looks so odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Thought the same thing when I saw it. Cells on the Mississippi are fast moving and fairly discrete. May get interesting up in Illinois later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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