Gilbertfly Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 nearly 80 here already, however DP's just below 60 ATTM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Since I could care less about tornadoes I don't want/need a backed flow. Legit severe conditions in one facet is what I'm looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 minor pockets of convergence popping up via meso analysis...keeping my eye on the Burlington area....not for anything immediate obv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 minor pockets of convergence popping up via meso analysis...keeping my eye on the Burlington area....not for anything immediate obv. I like that area as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Lol, Milwaukee and Racine already feeling a lake breeze, SE winds and dropping temps at MKE since the last observation. lol.. and now we're warmer than chicago.. dp pretty comfy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 lol.. and now we're warmer than chicago.. dp pretty comfy though. Yeah, dewpoints have mixed out. That's the case everywhere in the region. Are you looking forward to us dodging all the storms again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Yeah, dewpoints have mixed out. That's the case everywhere in the region. Are you looking forward to us dodging all the storms again? yeah all the swamp ass is in MI for now. I can't forecast severe weather to save my life so I have clue if things are sticking out as obvious as dog nuts that the fail factor level is pretty high at the arm pit of severe wx west of lake MI.. Maybe the storms at least develop closer by so they're not fizzling out faster than the Boowers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Yeah, dewpoints have mixed out. That's the case everywhere in the region. Are you looking forward to us dodging all the storms again? I'd at least wait until the kickass complex is pounding Chicago before claiming yet another failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0725 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 201634Z - 201730Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...COVERAGE OF TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN LOWER MI...AND MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE AND SPREAD EWD OVER THE REMAINDER OF LOWER MI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AN INITIAL THREAT OF DMGG WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WILL EXIST AS ACTIVITY REMAINS SEMI-DISCRETE...BUT SHOULD EVOLVE INTO PRIMARILY A DMGG WIND THREAT WITH TIME. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING ACROSS LOWER MI WITHIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F...CONTRIBUTING TO ESTIMATED MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. A RIBBON OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDING A LARGE NRN PLAINS TROUGH WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR MOVING EWD ACROSS LAKE MI. AS THIS INTERSECTS WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH NEAR THE ERN SHORE OF LAKE MI...TSTMS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP. MODERATELY STRONG BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO INITIATING LINE SHOULD PROMOTE MULTIPLE CELL INTERACTIONS INITIALLY...BEFORE CONSOLIDATION INTO CLUSTERS OR A QLCS OCCURS. THIS SHOULD PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS LOWER MI...POSING A PRIMARY THREAT OF DMGG WINDS...ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT. ..ROGERS/KERR.. 05/20/2013 ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0725.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 Probs expanded on the new outlook. 10% tornado into St Louis metro and 30% wind into the southern suburbs of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 I think patience will be required for MKE/Chicago area. Really could take much of the day before anything gets in there. Visible satellite trends are good as the clouds continue to move away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 I think patience will be required for MKE/Chicago area. Really could take much of the day before anything gets in there. Visible satellite trends are good as the clouds continue to move away. no doubt, storms won't be moving into the metro until 8-9 pm or so but we'll have all afternoon under full sun to prime the pump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 I think patience will be required for MKE/Chicago area. Really could take much of the day before anything gets in there. Visible satellite trends are good as the clouds continue to move away. I understand, most hi-res models are showing linear action in Illinois, but almost nothing in SE/SC Wisconsin, which would really be a waste of a warm and eventually humid day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Wow, mesoanalysis showing some impressive SBCAPE building over Southern Ontario, 3000 J/kg. As seen from the satellite shot we have perfectly clear skies, allowing the instability to ramp up. Just about to hit 80F, dews at 65F. Models had us at below 2000 J/kg CAPE, so maybe we will see the line from MI overperform and stay alive through Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Probs expanded on the new outlook. 10% tornado into St Louis metro and 30% wind into the southern suburbs of Chicago. 30% wind probs nick us now too. Think the storms will "run out of gas" before reaching us overnight? Just curious to hear your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 no doubt, storms won't be moving into the metro until 8-9 pm or so but we'll have all afternoon under full sun to prime the pump. Dewpoints have really taken a beating as has been pointed out...have to go into southern IL to find anything in the mid 60s or higher...that is something to be a bit concerned about but we'll see how the recovery goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Only getting more clear here... Instability already impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 ts watch trigger pulled for mi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 30% wind probs nick us now too. Think the storms will "run out of gas" before reaching us overnight? Just curious to hear your thoughts. This seems like a middle of the road setup...I'm not really optimistic but not really pessimistic either. I think our odds would be enhanced if we get something in here by 10 or 11 PM. The severe threat isn't zero after that but it should start to decrease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Dewpoints have really taken a beating as has been pointed out...have to go into southern IL to find anything in the mid 60s or higher...that is something to be a bit concerned about but we'll see how the recovery goes. I think we have enough time to get back into respectable shape but if something goes up early to our south it could be trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Clear and sunny here. Not a cloud to be seen, really. 83 with a dew point of 55, and Humidity is only 38%. Cap in place, at least per the Mesoanalysis page. Per NWS, the cap is supposed to weaken and break later today. Not feeling bullish at the moment.... I'll check back in an hour..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 STW in MI till 8 pm... hail to 2" and winds to 70mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 No more lake breeze at this point for Racine or Milwaukee. Winds are cranking out of the S now. Everybody should have the same amount of heating this afternoon. Dewpoints are really mixing out. Was in the upper 60s earlier this morning, now down to 56°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Golfing in Decatur today. Bright sunshine and breezy. We will see how this develops through the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 This seems like a middle of the road setup...I'm not really optimistic but not really pessimistic either. I think our odds would be enhanced if we get something in here by 10 or 11 PM. The severe threat isn't zero after that but it should start to decrease. Good enough then...the earlier the better. Thanks for the thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 RAP has dews in chicago dropping into the 40s before making a meager comeback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Definitely feels like a good severe weather day out there already. Heavy, humid, hot, and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Not feeling it today. Unless things ramp back up. It's actually pretty nice outside right now. Dew point has nudged up a bit to 56. Nice breeze from the SSW. Not totally pessimistic about our chances, but not really getting excited either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 FWIW, HRRR shows 70+ dps surging north by 4PM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 RAP has dews in chicago dropping into the 40s before making a meager comeback. Not buying it...would likely have to mix above 850 mb for that to happen. That model has been known to have problems handling surface temps and I would guess the same is true for dewpoints. Could see things hanging in the 50s though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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