daddylonglegs Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 It's 66/58 here. So not the best conditions for severe. McHenry County will likely see more. Dew point at 66F here...highest so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 I would mention others but I don't want to stray too much off topic. Not that we can't get blasted but, thankfully for me we live in the armpit of severe wx west of lake mi.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 the line is clearly going to crap the bed by the time it hits the lakeshore counties...very stable here Yeah, I think it will rot itself over Janesville and Rockford. You can tell it slowing down and training, which MKX duly noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Yeah, better than it being like in Louisiana at this time. Dews were overdone here today so I'm just a little skeptical with what looks like decent mixing tomorrow. Upper 60s looks easily attainable but that would still knock a little off of the CAPE progs all else being equal. Yeah I think it won't be a huge instability loss maybe 500 J/kg below model progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 22.5" weber smokey mountain and a remote controlled pit temp controller is set and forget about it till next morning when the brisket and butt's will be almost done. you'll be waking up to smoke rings and dank meats and i'll be waking up to a friggin office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 It would be nice if that MCV over southern Iowa helps back the wind to SSE ahead of it. I don't know if any of the meteorologists have a method of timing that feature into Michigan? If it crosses the lake during peak heating it could re-intensify/re-fire on the east side of the lake. Need deep enough SSE flow to get good convergence on the Lake MI lake breeze in western MI. A nice strong bow echo coming in off the lake in the afternoon and intensifying as it moves inland would be a win for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Lol at LOT. Much of their newest warning area won't even see a drop of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 you'll be waking up to smoke rings and dank meats and i'll be waking up to a friggin office. Classic Aking! And agreed WTF....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Lol at LOT. Much of their newest warning area won't even see a drop of rain. Yeah that's a bit far south, unless they're expecting the line to back-build. Just got the warning across the TV. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGILC007-031-037-043-089-093-097-111-197-200330-/O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0015.130520T0222Z-130520T0330Z/BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL922 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... EASTERN DE KALB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... NORTHERN KENDALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... NORTHWESTERN WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT* AT 918 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CLINTON TO HAMPSHIRE TO SOMONAUK...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... LITTLE ROCK AND HARVARD AROUND 930 PM CDT. PLANO AND HUNTLEY AROUND 935 PM CDT. WOODSTOCK AND SUGAR GROVE AROUND 940 PM CDT. SLEEPY HOLLOW AND LAKEWOOD AROUND 945 PM CDT. WONDER LAKE AND WEST DUNDEE AROUND 950 PM CDT. WAYNE AND ST. CHARLES AROUND 955 PM CDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE UNION...PINGREE GROVE...CRYSTAL LAKE...SOUTH ELGIN...FOX RIVER GROVE...CARY...BOULDER HILL...BARRINGTON HILLS...LAKE BARRINGTON AND FOX RIVER VALLEY GARDENS. THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHICAGO.OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY...AURORA UNIVERSITY...BENEDICTINEUNIVERSITY...BROOKFIELD ZOO...CHAIN O LAKES STATE PARK...COLLEGE OFDUPAGE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Yeah that's a bit far south, unless they're expecting the line to back-build. Just got the warning across the TV. I suppose they might, the complex as is, is showing movement to the ENE/NE, and the southern edge is already north of the latitude of Downtown Chicago. That seems to be the only explanation, or they want everyone's eyes focused on the weather regardless of outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Clear outflow/gust front showing up on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 I've been watching this for the past hour and a half or so refreshing every 5mins. I'll be just a hair south of it in a half hour. I'm hoping the bottom portion builds a little more.. Would be nice to see SOME lightning action. Maybe a rumble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Clear outflow/gust front showing up on radar.Outflow boundary just rolled through here to swing winds around. Line inching closer but mostly still skirting to the west in a NNE direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 That line heading ENE isn't going to back build south enough to hit much of the LOT warned area. Lots of lightning here, but that's all I'm going to get. Hoping for excitement tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Outflow boundary just rolled through here to swing winds around. Line inching closer but mostly still skirting to the west in a NNE direction. Yeah it seems like it may be jogging more N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 It seems its starting to crap out. Next half hour it should dwiddle down Im staying up late tonight but it should be quiet for the remainder of the night. At least til 6am Chicago area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Not worth waiting for this one. Still nothing. Thought we had something for a bit with the twatch and svr warning to the west, but lake didn't do any favors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Outflow boundary just came through here. These storms just got shredded to pieces! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Outflow boundary just came through here. These storms just got shredded to pieces!lol yeah they did. I was just outside earlier looking northwest towards it. Saw some flashes far out in the distance. Skies were clear here. Then saw a small clumped cloud mass moving in from the west. In literally minutes it just dispersed into nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 I drove out west a little bit before the storms fell apart. This was at about 9:17: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 ...I have no idea why I did not lose power. The winds were EASILY in the 80-85 mph range since the trees were swaying violently. Houses across the street are in the dark while houses on my side of the street have power. I also saw a ton of power flashes, including a few close by. PS: Oh yeah, there is a downed tree branch across the street. Large sections of Cedar Rapids are without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 The outflow boundary that just moved through actually warmed and slightly moistened the atmosphere. However, I think this second round of storms approaching the Mississippi River will also pass NW of the area, like this afternoon's storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 ...I have no idea why I did not lose power. The winds were EASILY in the 80-85 mph range since the trees were swaying violently. Houses across the street are in the dark while houses on my side of the street have power. I also saw a ton of power flashes, including a few close by. PS: Oh yeah, there is a downed tree branch across the street. Large sections of Cedar Rapids are without power. You've got some hearty trees if that's all the tree damage there is with that kind of wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 You've got some hearty trees if that's all the tree damage there is with that kind of wind. Oh there are doubtless tons of down tree limbs all around town. That line of storms that went through had alot more bite than bark! Oh yeah, when the trees were swaying violently, I thought that my window was going to break. Thankfully that didn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 CID gusted to 71 mph with those storms. METAR KCID 200352Z 20030G62KT 1/2SM TS FG SQ SCT013 BKN060 OVC100 17/17 A2969 RMK AO2 PK WND 18062/0346 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSE01B40RAB0255E11 PRESRR SLP050 P0037 T01720167 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Tomorrow continues to look like a busy day across Michigan, the 4km SPC-WRF from tonight shows stuff firing around 4PM on the west side of the state and progressing Eastward, all models at this point agree with this idea that a line of storms or supercells will form tomorrow on the West side of the state and move East. A couple select images showing the storms and maximum updraft helicity for 7pm tomorrow For those in SW Ontario wondering, it does extend into that part of the Provence before winding down around midnight not before making it to the Kitchener/Waterloo area. This model absolutely nailed the convection today both in mode and location. I have pretty high confidence that tomorrow will play out like this model among others show for Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Gonna be out at the Chrysler Proving Grounds tomorrow afternoon... Which I think is pretty clear and open for storm watching? At least by Michigan standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 Tomorrow continues to look like a busy day across Michigan, the 4km SPC-WRF from tonight shows stuff firing around 4PM on the west side of the state and progressing Eastward, all models at this point agree with this idea that a line of storms or supercells will form tomorrow on the West side of the state and move East. A couple select images showing the storms and maximum updraft helicity for 7pm tomorrow For those in SW Ontario wondering, it does extend into that part of the Provence before winding down around midnight not before making it to the Kitchener/Waterloo area. This model absolutely nailed the convection today both in mode and location. I have pretty high confidence that tomorrow will play out like this model among others show for Michigan. The 30% hatched area on the day 2 outlook in IA/IL/MO might be hung out to dry if that verifies. Nothing really gets going until very late in the day, well past peak heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 The 30% hatched area on the day 2 outlook in IA/IL/MO might be hung out to dry if that verifies. Nothing really gets going until very late in the day, well past peak heating. Yeah there are 2 distinct areas of focus tomorrow, up here and from SW MO to the Red River Valley. Might see some changes coming to the outlook in 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 Yeah there are 2 distinct areas of focus tomorrow, up here and from SW MO to the Red River Valley. Might see some changes coming to the outlook in 30 minutes. It looks like that run sends an outflow boundary through the area early in the day and uses that as an excuse to keep redevelopment at bay. Looking at current radar, there is a boundary showing up quite clearly on DVN though it's running a bit ahead of where the model had it at this time. I'm curious to see how they handle the 6z outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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