YHM Supercell Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 5 tor/30wind/30hail the only caveat is if the MCS near KC keeps going through the night, the models have it falling apart overnight. If it falls apart it will lay down outflow boundaries and will have a MCV associated with it which will ignite storms tomorrow. What areas do you think will be prime in S MI tomorrow? Think the risk could move into SW ON as the day progresses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 What areas do you think will be prime in S MI tomorrow? Think the risk could move into SW ON as the day progresses? I think most areas in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan have a potential, it could extend into Ontario later in the evening hours, though it might be undergoing a weakening trend by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 I think most areas in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan have a potential, it could extend into Ontario later in the evening hours, though it might be undergoing a weakening trend by that point. Thanks for that Stebo. Just trying to get some sort of handle on storm potential here tomorrow as high res seems to be all over the place. NAM NMMB high res has some sort of MCS pushing SE across SW/SC ON...while other high res models have scattered storms through the overnight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 807 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 830 PM CDT * AT 802 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ARGO FAY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 A pretty strong bow echo is heading toward the Northern half of Chicago metro and Racine/Kenosha area within the next couple hours, the Northern part of the bow has a confirmed tornado with it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 The tornado warned cell is only about 6 miles from Mt. Carroll. Looks like it will pass pretty close to the town. The air is pretty stable over this way - not sure if the storms will make severe limits this far east. New tornado watch issued further east. - just to my west. TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 187NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK810 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013TORNADO WATCH 187 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONSILC007-011-015-037-057-067-071-073-085-089-093-095-099-103-109-111-123-125-131-141-143-155-161-169-175-177-179-187-195-201-203-200800-/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0187.130520T0110Z-130520T0800Z/IL. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED AREBOONE BUREAU CARROLLDE KALB FULTON HANCOCKHENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESSKANE KENDALL KNOXLA SALLE LEE MARSHALLMASON MCDONOUGH MCHENRYMERCER OGLE PEORIAPUTNAM ROCK ISLAND SCHUYLERSTARK STEPHENSON TAZEWELLWARREN WHITESIDE WINNEBAGOWOODFORD$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 The tornado warned cell is only about 6 miles from Mt. Carroll. Looks like it will pass pretty close to the town. The air is pretty stable over this way - not sure if the storms will make severe limits this far east. At the lake shore yes, but just a county West of there it is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 Here's the LOT mesoscale update as of ~90 minutes ago AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 710 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 709 PM CDT CONTINUING TO MONITOR STRONG CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST IL AND ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS AHEAD OF IT. THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD FOR SOME OF THIS TO REACH THE NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA...BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED. THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON WAS AND CONTINUES TO BE ON THE FRONT EDGE OF AN INCREASING MID-LEVEL JET. THIS IS ALSO ON A SURFACE WARM FRONT AND HIGH T/TD TONGUE WITH ASSOCIATED LARGE CAPE OF 3500+ J/KG VERIFIED BY THE 00Z DVN RAOB DATA. RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS SHOW THAT THE STORM AREA NEAR GALESBURG HAS AN ORGANIZED STRUCTURE AND IS MOVING MORE ENE AND DEVIANT FROM THE MEAN STEERING FLOW...WITH GALESBURG HAVING GUSTED TO 39 KT. BUNKERS MOTION VECTORS INDICATE THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST LIKELY AROUND 30 KT AND BE THE PRIMARY STORM AREA THAT COULD IMPACT WESTERN LASALLE/LEE/OGLE/WINNEBAGO COUNTIES BETWEEN 830 AND 1100 PM. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KT SHOULD INCREASE TO 50-55 KT BY LATE EVE AND SUPPORT ORGANIZED AND REGENERATING STORMS IN NW IL...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE. THESE LOOK TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A WIND AND HAIL THREAT INTO THE MID TO LATE EVE AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED...PER SPC SWOMCD. MTF/KREIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Was in Jo Davies County in NW IL when that cell rolled through earlier this afternoon...lost power and had some branches come down. One larger tree came down, but it was pretty well rotted out. Back in the brook now....muggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 At the lake shore yes, but just a county West of there it is a different story. It will be interesting, I saw east winds are being recorded well inland, so any lake breeze has reached a bit inland, as also seen by the UW radar map (the one that Turtle so kindly shared with us a year ago). Looks strong now, and the dewpoints are still high despite the wind shift, so I could see this bow echo making it pretty close to the lake, but wouldn't be surprised if it petered at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 187 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 810 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN IOWA WESTERN ANDN NORTHERN ILLINOIS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 810 PM UNTIL 300 AM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 180...WW 181...WW 182...WW 183...WW 184...WW 185...WW 186... DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS BANDS/CLUSTERS OF TSTMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT WW AREA THIS EVE THROUGH EARLY MON AS MOIST...SSWLY LLJ NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENS AND SWLY MID-LVL FLOW INTENSIFIES WITH THE CONTINUED NE ADVANCE OF 70+ KT MID SPEED MAX IN E QUADRANT OF NEB UPR LOW. ACTIVITY MAY INCLUDE A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS...SUPERCELLS...AND LEWPS WITH A RISK FOR DMGG WIND...HAIL...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 Shear is still pretty lackluster as you head east in WI/IL so that is something else to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Line looks pretty good right now. If anything the area will get some rain and thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 It will be interesting, I saw east winds are being recorded well inland, so any lake breeze has reached a bit inland, as also seen by the UW radar map (the one that Turtle so kindly shared with us a year ago). Looks strong now, and the dewpoints are still high despite the wind shift, so I could see this bow echo making it pretty close to the lake, but wouldn't be surprised if it petered at the end. It will just go elevated by that point, the line isn't going to evaporate in a county or so distance. Once it gets out over the lake however all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 18z NAM had some very impressive instability here tomorrow. I'm not quite convinced that its 70+ degree dewpoints are going to be accurate though so it may be overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 looking good for Geosland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 It will just go elevated by that point, the line isn't going to evaporate in a county or so distance. Once it gets out over the lake however all bets are off. I've seen stranger things, there was an event last summer (late July I believe) where a line went from an intense squall line in SC Wisconsin to light/moderate rain with a couple claps of thunder once it got to the lakeshore counties, and keep in mind, the line was moving pretty quickly as well. This particular bow is a slow mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 18z NAM had some very impressive instability here tomorrow. I'm not quite convinced that its 70+ degree dewpoints are going to be accurate though so it may be overdone. A lot of upper 60s/lower 70s dew points across Paducah's CWA, I'd say it isn't that much of a stretch to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 I've seen stranger things, there was an event last summer (late July I believe) where a line went from an intense squall line in SC Wisconsin to light/moderate rain with a couple claps of thunder once it got to the lakeshore counties, and keep in mind, the line was moving pretty quickly as well. This particular bow is a slow mover. Yeah, I wouldn't base my expectations on one outside instance of a line falling apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 I've seen stranger things, there was an event last summer (late July I believe) where a line went from an intense squall line in SC Wisconsin to light/moderate rain with a couple claps of thunder once it got to the lakeshore counties, and keep in mind, the line was moving pretty quickly as well. This particular bow is a slow mover. I remember that lol..think we were on skype for that one? I have to put a bunch of meat on the smoker but if you're around still at 10:30 let me know if you want to chat it up on skype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Thinly veiled moon visible overhead but lightning now visible in cloud shield to the west. As has been said, dewpoint still seems decent despite the unmistakable wind out of the east. Will stay up for this either way at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 temp really dropping off now. Geos might be out of luck, better chances out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 awesome..haven't seen this for like forever? Could use some more tnads though http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/uppermissvly_lite_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Yeah, I wouldn't base my expectations on one outside instance of a line falling apart. I would mention others but I don't want to stray too much off topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 I remember that lol..think we were on skype for that one? I have to put a bunch of meat on the smoker but if you're around still at 10:30 let me know if you want to chat it up on skype. throwing meat on the smoker at 9 pm? I want your lifestyle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 temp really dropping off now. Geos might be out of luck, better chances out west It's 66/58 here. So not the best conditions for severe. McHenry County will likely see more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 I would mention others but I don't want to stray too much off topic. the line is clearly going to crap the bed by the time it hits the lakeshore counties...very stable here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 It's 66/58 here. So not the best conditions for severe. McHenry County will likely see more. Yeah I don't think it will be severe but you'll probably have a good storm with a lot of lightning/heavy rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 throwing meat on the smoker at 9 pm? I want your lifestyle 22.5" weber smokey mountain and a remote controlled pit temp controller is set and forget about it till next morning when the brisket and butt's will be almost done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 A lot of upper 60s/lower 70s dew points across Paducah's CWA, I'd say it isn't that much of a stretch to be honest. Yeah, better than it being like in Louisiana at this time. Dews were overdone here today so I'm just a little skeptical with what looks like decent mixing tomorrow. Upper 60s looks easily attainable but that would still knock a little off of the CAPE progs all else being equal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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