Chinook Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Might be chasing in NW Ohio-NE Indiana tomorrow I see that the GFS has some 40 knot and 50 knot winds at 500mb for Indiana and the NW half of Ohio tomorrow, with CAPE over 1500 J/kg. I would expect a breezy day, with 25 knot wind gusts or more. The uni-directional shear (about 30 knots) may be strong enough for some scattered wind/hail reports in Indiana and Ohio. It doesn't even seem like the models forecast much rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Tornado Watch issued for southeast MO, western KY, eastern IL, and western IN. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0197.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Wasn't expecting the TOR watch down in IN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Yeah. Discussion mentions the possibility of brief tornadoes, but mainly a wind damage threat. Severe Thunderstorm Watch just issued to the north of the Tornado Watch. As for Hoosier's earlier thoughts, temp ticked up two degrees last hour...now 75/66 at LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Pouring rain here with nearly constant thunder. C-C lightning, few C-G strikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Looks like more rain heading up again in an hour or so. Just had a flashback from last month.... I will say this though, the last storm that rolled through in the morning during that monsoon train had more punch than tonights storms around here in dupage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Fun chase tonight, made it out to Monkton, ON to intercept a severe warned line of storms. Managed to get there JUST before dark so still was able to see a pretty decent shelf. Wind gusts probably about 60mph, some small hail and great lightning. Saw one MASSIVE lightning strike close to me, was able to see sparks in the air for a few seconds afterwards. Finally some thunderstorm action I'm pretty new at lightning photography, but here's my first ever success: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Fun chase tonight, made it out to Monkton, ON to intercept a severe warned line of storms. Managed to get there JUST before dark so still was able to see a pretty decent shelf. Wind gusts probably about 60mph, some small hail and great lightning. Saw one MASSIVE lightning strike close to me, was able to see sparks in the air for a few seconds afterwards. Final some thunderstorm action Interesting, the cells that developed here in Western Michigan didn't have a whole lot of photogenic lightning strikes. I think they were mostly hidden deep inside the rain. The cell that dropped the 2-3 inch stones had a funny constant soft rumbling thunder that was hard to distinguish from the wind in the distance but very little CGs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Interesting, the cells that developed here in Western Michigan didn't have a whole lot of photogenic lightning strikes. I think they were mostly hidden deep inside the rain. The cell that dropped the 2-3 inch stones had a funny constant soft rumbling thunder that was hard to distinguish from the wind in the distance but very little CGs. Yeah the storms here earlier were strange in that regard. Despite the brief but intense rains and hail there was hardly any thunder or lightening and the clouds blah and did not have that look. I did enjoy it though while it lasted. Will be interesting to see what that stuff crossing the lake can do once it arrives? Was a MD out for us but i guess no watch will be issued? Regardless some decent rains should be had which is more then welcome around here atleast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 I see that the GFS has some 40 knot and 50 knot winds at 500mb for Indiana and the NW half of Ohio tomorrow, with CAPE over 1500 J/kg. I would expect a breezy day, with 25 knot wind gusts or more. The uni-directional shear (about 30 knots) may be strong enough for some scattered wind/hail reports in Indiana and Ohio. It doesn't even seem like the models forecast much rain. Lots of moisture too. However if getting sun is a struggle then I'll be staying at home as I'm pessimistic about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SW AR...SE OK...NW LA...CNTRL TX AND NE TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...OZARKS...MID MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES... ...SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX/MID-MS VALLEY... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS CNTRL OK AND WCNTRL TX. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS ERN OK WHERE AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE MAY EXIST THIS MORNING. WITH SFC HEATING...NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INITIATE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM WRN AR SWWD INTO NORTH TX AROUND MIDDAY. THE MODELS QUICKLY EXPAND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH AN MCS ORGANIZING AND MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA WHERE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/WED FROM LITTLE ROCK SWWD TO AROUND THE DALLAS FORT WORTH METROPLEX SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 4000 J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 45 TO 55 KT. THIS ALONG WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES COULD OCCUR NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL JET AS BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE MODELS SUGGEST CELLS MAY BE DISCRETE AT THE START OF THE EVENT WITH A TRANSITION TO A SQUALL-LINE. THIS WOULD MAKE THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT INCREASINGLY DOMINANT AS A LINEAR MCS ORGANIZES EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR THIS REASON...AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NNEWD FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO LOWER MI. SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS SRN IL...NW IND AND LOWER MI SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S F RESULTING IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE STORMS BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH STORMS MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS WEST OF DETROIT AND NORTH OF INDIANAPOLIS AT 21Z SHOW MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS LOWER MI TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SFC LOW AND ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. FOR THIS REASON...AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS IN LOWER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. ...NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS. IN SPITE OF THE RIDGE...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM PA NEWD ACROSS CNTRL NY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THE MODELS APPEAR TO MOVE A DISTURBANCE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WHICH WOULD HELP WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN SPITE OF THE WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...THEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT. Tomorrow there is an enhanced area of severe for most of Lower Michigan again. Most models show scattered convection firing on the lead edge of the LLJ tomorrow evening. As busy as today was across the state, tomorrow has a higher potential due to the increased amount of speed shear forecasted tomorrow evening along with favorable amounts of instability though not nearly as much as today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Fun chase tonight, made it out to Monkton, ON to intercept a severe warned line of storms. Managed to get there JUST before dark so still was able to see a pretty decent shelf. Wind gusts probably about 60mph, some small hail and great lightning. Saw one MASSIVE lightning strike close to me, was able to see sparks in the air for a few seconds afterwards. Finally some thunderstorm action Yeah it was just a normal thunderstorm here with a cool shelf in front about 23 minutes before the real storm came. The colour of the sky was pretty strange though. Didn't see any hail at all either. What was impressive was the speed it came in, one of the top 6 fastest ones I've experienced. A very similar event to this one occurred sometime around May 25, 2010 but I don't know if that's the correct date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Had some pretty strong wind go thru. 57mph recorded on a wunderground station. Looks like we are the only house with power in the neighborhood too. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 almost no wind and very little thunder with last night's line but it was a decent garden variety storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 2% tornado risk for Southern Ontario. Just pulled this sounding for 17Z near Barrie, ON. Today may get interesting : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 SPC dropped the higher probabilities across lower MI due to the storms overnight working over the atmosphere. It's all going to depend on how we recover. Not too bad here, around 70 with hazy Sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 We had plenty of lightning last night, and about 15 minutes of heavy, wind whipped rain. Probably had some gusts that topped 40mph last night, easily. Not at all like the June and July 2011 storms, but pretty decent all the same., Small branches down around the neighborhood, although, nothing of any significance. Also, today is garbage/recycling pick up day, and plenty of cardboard and paper strewn about, because most folks put there recycling out the night before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 30% probs put up for OH on 1730 SPC OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 21, 2013 Author Share Posted May 21, 2013 Had some pretty strong wind go thru. 57mph recorded on a wunderground station. Looks like we are the only house with power in the neighborhood too. Sent from my SCH-I535 2 A number of wind damage reports in the IND cwa. Had some gusty winds in LAF but nothing too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN115 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0240 AM TORNADO NORTH SALEM 39.86N 86.64W05/21/2013 HENDRICKS IN NWS STORM SURVEYEF0 TORNADO CAUSED DAMAGE TREE AND ROOF DAMAGE.UPDATING PREVIOUS DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND REPORT.TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 21, 2013 Author Share Posted May 21, 2013 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 115 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0240 AM TORNADO NORTH SALEM 39.86N 86.64W 05/21/2013 HENDRICKS IN NWS STORM SURVEY EF0 TORNADO CAUSED DAMAGE TREE AND ROOF DAMAGE. UPDATING PREVIOUS DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND REPORT. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. This one sounds kinda interesting. Haven't checked radar so not sure if there was any couplet at the time. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 1022 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0238 AM TSTM WND DMG WASHINGTON 38.66N 87.17W 05/21/2013 DAVIESS IN EMERGENCY MNGR ROOF DAMAGE DOWNTOWN...ONE ROOF WAS ONLY 2 YEARS OLD AND DEBRIS FROM IT FLEW 3 BLOCKS. DAMAGE TO OLD TREES AND STRUCTURALLY UNSOUND OUT BUILDINGS AND CANOPYS. WIND DAMAGE FROM SW 5TH STREET MOVING TO NE 21ST STREET. MEASURED WIND SPEED OF 33 MPH AT THE HIGH SCHOOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Big shift east with the threat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Quite a few trees down in the neighborhood today, I guess our road was the only one in town to keep power, somehow. Hard to see, but that's about a 6" branch. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 2% tornado risk for Southern Ontario. Just pulled this sounding for 17Z near Barrie, ON. Today may get interesting : I'm hopeful but what I don't like is the cloudiness that has been occurring all this morning and into this early afternoon. The sun is breaking out a lot more these last 2 hours but still quite a few clouds and raindrops briefly. A quasi-linear line started just to my east at noon and I did see dark clouds in the distance, didn't think much of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN247 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0230 AM TORNADO 3 E ROACHDALE 39.85N 86.74W05/21/2013 PUTNAM IN NWS STORM SURVEYEF0 TORNADO. TREES DOWN. BARN DESTROYED. IRRIGATIONSYSTEM FLIPPED. THIS IS AN UPDATE TO THE EARLIER REPORTOF DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AT 3E ROACHDALE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Detroit will have one last go at severe weather tomorrow per the SPC (30% prob). I guess 3rd time's the charm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Impressive instability just to the east of Lake Huron up in Ontario. I think here around Toledo it's punt till tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 My daughter's going to Cedar Point with her class tomorrow. I hope they have their severe weather action plan in place. I may have to make a quick jaunt across the state line for a little chase action if any sups form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 If someone would have told me 3 days ago that we wouldn’t see severe weather around here, I would have laughed and told them they’re crazy. Now, I’m looking at myself in the mirror thinking, “wow, I’m crazy”. 3 days with 3-4 separate severe weather chances… And slipped by with NOTHING? I don’t know if I should look at that as lucky because I’ve been working outside, or not lucky because I love storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 If someone would have told me 3 days ago that we wouldn’t see severe weather around here, I would have laughed and told them they’re crazy. Now, I’m looking at myself in the mirror thinking, “wow, I’m crazy”. 3 days with 3-4 separate severe weather chances… And slipped by with NOTHING? I don’t know if I should look at that as lucky because I’ve been working outside, or not lucky because I love storms. I mean, I guess that's how severe weather works though, right? ... Hit or miss, mostly miss. It's not as if there was no action region wide so you can't really call it a bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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