Heavy Rain And Thunderstorm Potential This Week

[bluewave]

While it's still too early for the individual details, the models are indicating the potential

for heavy rain and thunderstorms next week. We will see a moist flow around the 

back of the departing high pressure system begin by next Monday. The chances

for convection will begin to increase around this time.

 

 

 

 

We will then see an area of low pressure approach from the west and slow down

as it gets near the East Coast.

 

 

 

 

Beyond this point, the models agree with an omega blocking pattern becoming 

established with a lingering area of low pressure  somewhere around the East.

This may take the form of a developing low along a stalled front which would

be the focus of the convection. If a low can cutoff, then things could slow down

even more and prolong the active pattern.

 

 

[Weathergun]

Early indications for more middle of next week, are that instability will be high in the warm sector. But shear and forcing may be lacking for widespread severe/heavy rain

 

This is from 6z GFS. But the 0z ECMWF has similar set-up, for next Wednesday, with the cold front passage. Still plenty of time to watch:

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

The models are indicating numerous opportunities for convection and heavy rainfall beginning

Sunday into Monday and right through next week. NYC has the potential for the wettest May

finish in years should the heaviest convection move over the park. The GFS total through 192

is impressive in that the models usually underestimate rainfall totals with convection. So the

key will be which areas see the most convection.

 

 

 

[Snow_Miser]

The models are indicating numerous opportunities for convection and heavy rainfall beginning

Sunday into Monday and right through next week. NYC has the potential for the wettest May

finish in years should the heaviest convection move over the park. The GFS total through 192

is impressive in that the models usually underestimate rainfall totals with convection. So the

key will be which areas see the most convection.

 

gfs_namer_192_precip_ptot.gif

 

This has huge bust potential though. There could be a huge amount of rain from trained convection over the area, or the convection may miss the area largely. It's a wait and see.

[bluewave]

This has huge bust potential though. There could be a huge amount of rain from trained convection over the area, or the convection may miss the area largely. It's a wait and see.

 

The opportunity will be there, but we'll have to see what part of MA and NE region the heaviest convection trains over.

NYC has seen a number of 5+ inch Mays since the late 90's.

 

1998 5.20 5.81 5.08 7.05 6.94 5.94 1.09 2.78 3.44 2.76 1.48 1.12 48.69

1999 6.99 3.49 4.01 1.93 4.04 0.59 0.44 3.94 8.81 2.73 2.33 3.20 42.50

2000 3.24 1.66 3.31 3.53 4.50 4.86 7.28 3.82 5.82 0.68 3.53 3.19 45.42

2001 3.16 1.95 7.72 1.58 2.02 5.29 2.04 2.56 5.31 0.66 1.36 2.27 35.92

2002 1.93 0.71 3.53 3.41 3.69 4.50 1.05 4.91 5.16 7.20 5.06 4.06 45.21

2003 2.30 4.56 4.57 3.20 3.43 10.27 3.76 5.85 6.03 4.90 4.27 5.42 58.56

2004 2.13 2.68 2.99 4.11 5.77 3.02 7.64 3.03 11.51 1.18 4.21 3.71 51.97

2005 4.67 3.04 4.89 4.81 1.48 3.21 3.56 3.96 0.48 16.73 4.47 4.60 55.90

2006 4.99 2.88 0.80 5.56 4.62 8.55 6.16 6.08 3.69 7.08 7.34 2.15 59.90

2007 3.64 1.99 5.35 13.05 1.88 6.55 6.89 7.20 1.81 4.65 3.47 5.22 61.70

2008 2.85 5.95 4.08 2.77 4.01 4.70 2.84 5.58 7.05 3.62 3.54 6.62 53.61

2009 2.98 0.93 1.75 4.69 5.17 10.06 7.11 4.22 2.26 5.58 1.61 7.27 53.63

2010 2.08 6.69 10.69 2.99 3.01 2.20 2.60 4.14 3.67 4.91 2.15 4.24 49.37

2011 4.93 3.47 6.19 5.35 5.11 3.25 3.03 18.95 9.39 6.09 3.05 4.00 72.81

2012 3.23 1.37 0.96 3.56 5.38 2.97 4.21 2.91 4.39 2.92 1.81 4.80 38.51

2013 2.76 4.25

[JSantanaNYC]

Looks like a wet memorial weekend

[Weathergun]

Looks like a wet memorial weekend

 

Don't know yet. The ECMWF is dry. More progressive with trough and frontal boundary, than the GFS for next weekend

[Rtd208]

Up to 0.40" of rain so far today, a potentially very wet week ahead.

[Rtd208]

Total rainfall for yesterday 0.45"