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Memorial Day Weekend Coastal/Snow


Damage In Tolland

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You know more than me. I'm hoping NNW flow will help out in th lower 3000'.

 

Yeah... what is fascinating is that if this were January, this would likely be a huge event for BTV and eastern suburbs.

 

The northerly flow with an ever so slight westerly component is still causing meso-scale precipitation, but its not over the higher terrain where they could hit the snow levels.

 

At all levels of the radar, the scans are showing the precipitation is west of the spine and over the eastern Champlain Valley.  So the wind and moisture is producing some low level convergence and enhancing precipitation even in this dryslot (which will fill in quickly here it looks like)... but the north winds are causing the enhancement to happen west of the higher elevations if that makes sense.  Usually this would be ok with westerly winds causing that precipitation to drift eastward over the high terrain, but with northerly winds, its likely just blowing the precipitation further south down the eastern Champlain Valley.

 

May25_7pm.gif

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Well the QPF certainly was there... Mansfield COOP has picked up 4.9" of liquid equiv in the past 48 hours.  That's a lot of water.

 

 

12z Euro had the party in NE VT  00z-6z,  so not over yet .  Just need your extra 0.3" with good temps after dark.

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Hunter mountain website  shows nothing at midmountain and the summit cam is fogged up.

 

http://www.huntermtn.com/huntermtn/webcams.aspx

 

I just googled it and that Becker Hollow Trail goes up to over 4,000ft at the top of Hunter Mountain.  For all we know that photo could be (and likely is) from like 3,900ft or something where I'd say that snowfall is possible.

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I just googled it and that Becker Hollow Trail goes up to over 4,000ft at the top of Hunter Mountain. For all we know that photo could be (and likely is) from like 3,900ft or something where I'd say that snowfall is possible.

Actually corrected just below 3800
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I wonder if starksboro cashes in pfreak

 

Yeah, I don't know.  I'm using the 2,100ft web cam at Bolton Valley as a barometer and until this is white, nothing on the west slope is accumulating below 2,000ft.

 

I'm not going to lie, I thought this would be snow covered by now, approaching 00z.  12z NAM/GFS were too cold in the lower levels.  I'm actually a little disappointed they aren't plowing up at Bolton right now.  I really thought they had a good shot... but it seems like more like 2,300-2,500ft is where snow cover starts.  I think Coles Pond is at 2,300ft(?) where it looks like they are around 1".

 

bolton-valley-webcam-image.jpg

 

 

But just getting flakes down to 1,500ft and even mixing down to 1,000ft is a huge win on May 25th...it just didn't get as ridiculous as it looked like it could have.  It looked like there was a potential for like 12-20" amounts above 2,500ft based on the model runs yesterday.

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BTV's record low max for the day was 51F (1921, 1925) and so far today it has not gotten higher than 46F (12:01am).

 

BTV is going to crush the record low max by like 5F today.

 

Updated AFD with snowfall expectations... Dusting-3" in the 1,000-1,500ft range would be quite impressive if it occurs.

 

Looks like they are extending the best orographic flow through at least 18z tomorrow, which fits better with the slower movement of the storm and winds taking their sweet time turning NW.  Tomorrow morning in that 9z-18z time frame may actually be the best snow accum period of the whole event if the winds go NW and combined with diurnal minimum in temperatures around sunrise.

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 500 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. REGION IS CURRENTLY
BEING IMPACTED BY DRY SLOT MOVING INTO VERMONT AND CUTTING OFF
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONG OUT OF THE
NORTH...GUSTING TO ALMOST 30 KTS. LOW WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH
OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM TRANSITIONS FROM LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO
MESOSCALE FEATURES DRIVEN BY THE TERRAIN. GFS/NAM SHOWS VERY
FAVORABLE 850 TO 700MB RH AND LLVL WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
MORNING FOR ENHANCED PRECIP ACROSS THE CPV...WESTERN
SLOPES...AND NORTH/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT. THIS FAVORABLE
MOISTURE/LIFT IS PRESENT THRU 18Z SUNDAY...BEFORE FINALLY
WEAKENING BY EVENING. GENERALLY ANOTHER HALF AN INCH TO INCH AND A
QUARTER OF QPF EXPECTED...
WITH HARDLY ANY PRECIP IN OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES. THINKING CPV CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLW WL HELP
TO ENHANCE QPF AMOUNTS ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND CPV. THIS WILL
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS...WITH SOME MAIN STEM
FLOODING POSSIBLE. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFO.

THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE SNOW LEVELS AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS. WE HAD SOME SNOW REPORTS TODAY AS LOW AS 1000
FEET...THOUGH NOT REALLY STICKING. THIS IS EXTREMELY TRICKY TO
DETERMINE...ESPECIALLY IN LATE MAY...WITH A VERY HIGH SUN ANGLE.
ABOVE 2000 FEET THERE WAS SOME DECENT ACCUMULATION...AND SPOTTY
DOWN TO 1000 FEET. THE SNOW SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN VERY INTENSITY
DRIVEN. EXPECT A DUSTING TO 3 INCHES FROM 1000-1500 FEET. ABOVE
2000 FEET...3 TO 8 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST POINTS HAVING UP TO A
FOOT OF SNOW.

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