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Memorial Day Weekend Coastal/Snow


Damage In Tolland

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So not much chance of any snow mixing in with the rain in NE CT?

 

No... probably no chance. Looks like there's actually a warming trend above the boundary layer by 00z... some warm air getting sucked west with the TROWAL. West of the CT River Valley is where that feature isn't showing up so with some boundary layer cooling and cooler air aloft they could do it. Norfolk coop may wind up with a T tomorrow morning lol. 

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No... probably no chance. Looks like there's actually a warming trend above the boundary layer by 00z... some warm air getting sucked west with the TROWAL. West of the CT River Valley is where that feature isn't showing up so with some boundary layer cooling and cooler air aloft they could do it. Norfolk coop may wind up with a T tomorrow morning lol. 

 

lol oh well even a trace in Norfolk would be pretty amazing for memorial day weekend!

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Yeah that's a good point, Scott. I think we'll probably get a NNW flow... but it will almost be colocated with the best deformation so a bit of an upslope assist.

 

And btw Whiteface just tweeted out they have 18" of new!!!! 

 

Wow!  Yeah they have been in the deformation band all last night and today...and another 1,000ft certainly helps, with their summit parking lot around 4,800ft.

 

Yeah, there will be some slight turning of the winds below H85 so upslope assist.  An awesome event, but in the interest of the most extreme solution, it would be better if the lows were further north, giving a more pure NW flow into the mountains. 

 

The 18z RAP gives a bit more westerly component by 12z tomorrow morning...still only really NNW through even at daybreak tomorrow.

 

 

FYI- On the Stowe web cam I can make out accumulations down to what looks like 2500ft.  Not the easiest to see, but I can make it out from the two vantage points. Still sweet to see white trails on May 25th.

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Are you up there or did you decide to stay in Woodstock?

 

Woodstock... I was really looking to go up if I felt confident of a real historic event with like a few inches at 1,000-1,500ft.  The potential seemed there yesterday and the day before when the NAM and GFS were spitting out like 0.8-1.0" QPF as snow at MPV/MVL.

 

Like these weenie solutions do not look like they will happen like it looked possible yesterday when H85 temps were progged -4C to -5C.

 

Still an awesome event, but this is what would've made me go back north:

prec.png

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To really weenie out, the BTV radar right now is awesome.

 

You have the mid/upper level dryslot moving over the region as the main precipitation shield moves westward into New York...so the precipitation forming in the mid/upper levels is moving from east to west. 

 

Then there is the moist boundary layer and strong north winds funneling down the Champlain Valley, causing Champlain Valley Convergence and weak upslope assist...so under the mid level precip, there is the low level precip that is cruising north to south. 

 

Although the CVC zone and weak upslope assist is generating some low level precipitation, it is not nearly as robust as it would be if the winds were northwesterly as opposed to due north.  Without that low level NW flow producing precipitation, we aren't getting that good upslope enhanced cooling and heavier feeder/seeder precipitation along the western slopes.

 

May25_445pm.gif

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No... probably no chance. Looks like there's actually a warming trend above the boundary layer by 00z... some warm air getting sucked west with the TROWAL. West of the CT River Valley is where that feature isn't showing up so with some boundary layer cooling and cooler air aloft they could do it. Norfolk coop may wind up with a T tomorrow morning lol. 

 

I would take that bet...I just came from Union and it was 40° there, the same temp as Norfolk.  I'd agree that they probably won't have a T on ground but they could see flakes falling, especially places above 1000'. We'll see if it occurs below 1000'....

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I would take that bet...I just came from Union and it was 40° there, the same temp as Norfolk.  I'd agree that they probably won't have a T on ground but they could see flakes falling, especially places above 1000'. We'll see if it occurs below 1000'....

 

Yeah.... looking at the soundings you can see a layer of warmer air moving in around 900mb later tonight from BDL on east as the TROWAL rotates in. That's why I think it's pretty marginal for most places in NE CT. A better chance in the NW Hills where the forcing is a bit stronger for some precip through the night and where temps ~3000-4000 ft AGL are a bit cooler. 

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BTV PNS has 7.5 new on the summit of Mansfield. Not sure if that's from the coop or not?

 

Yeah probably from the 4pm-ish daily COOP reading.

 

That's impressive for the coop, but as I said they are most accurate during wet snow events as the flakes find there way into the rain gauge.

 

I'll be curious what the depth is... I'll throw a fit if they report a snow depth higher than the "new" snow reported, lol.

 

Here's the PNS for everyone else:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTSPOTTER REPORTSNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT512 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE STORM THAT HAS BEENAFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAYDEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE AND COCORAHS OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIAFOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE ATWEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                     SNOWFALL           OF                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENTVERMONT...CHITTENDEN COUNTY...   MT. MANSFIELD          7.5   430 PM  5/25  SUMMIT...ORLEANS COUNTY...   5 WSW JAY              4.5   507 PM  5/25  JAY PEAK SUMMIT   2 NE TROY              2.0   315 PM  5/25  950 FEET
$$MUCCILLI
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With the 7.5" reported at the summit co-operative observing station, that beats the 6.3" from the May 25-26, 1967 storm.  I'll have to do some further looking but I think that would be the most significant late-season storm on record then, and we'll likely get more overnight up there.

 

It looks like accumulating snow made it down to 2,300-2,500ft today based on the Stowe web cams and my knowledge of the mountain.

 

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