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Memorial Day Weekend Coastal/Snow


Damage In Tolland

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Coles Pond Vermont (Elev 2200 feet) just went over to snow.  I had emailed Robert last night and asked him if he changed over to please face the camera onto the ground.  I noticed 30 minutes ago it had started to snow and just now he faced the camera on the ground and its starting to stick. It was 33F 30 minutes ago and now down to 32F  Pics attached

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post-268-0-78516700-1369496032_thumb.jpg

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BTW, nobody said several inches at 1000'...just that above 2k and 2500' really could get hit pretty hard. 1000-1500' definitely could get some snow in favored upslope areas...and more than a coating.

 

Yeah... It just seemed like yesterday's progs and the general "mood" was that something bigger was looking as a possibility yesterday even at 1,500ft.  Will/ORH and I were discussing Winter Storm Watches at least at 1,500ft and higher.  Even some of those progs yesterday had it snowing at 500ft today.

 

My feeling is this is verifying warmer than yesterday's models looked, not that anyone was seriously forecasting it.  But if you read back through the posts yesterday, there were a lot of "this may be a much bigger deal than just upper mountain snowfall."

 

Its still early and we've got another 6 hours or so till the models really hammered northern VT but I'll be honest I thought it might be snowing a bit lower than 3,000ft on the Spine at 15z... though it looks like its down to 2,200ft at Coles Pond now.

 

May25.gif

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Nice bright-banding on BTV radar... VAD still showing winds are northerly in the low levels so no western slope upslope enhancement yet.

 

Still a really impressive synoptic storm for this time of year... we couldn't buy that sort of the moisture transport up here in NW New England in the past two winters.  We need one of these in the Nov-Mar time frame.  Haven't had a good BTV CWA jackpot in a couple winter seasons.

 

This would be a beauty of a winter storm.

 

May25_1130am.gif

 

May25_1130amVAD.gif

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Arrived in Essex Junction a little while ago. I did not see any mixing at 1700 feet southeast of MPV at around 10am...so things will definitely have to cool off some this afternoon for a big time event. The precip rates aren't that impressive but we'll see what happens when the winds start to go more NNW/NW for upslope enhancement. I'm going to see how the temps are doing in an hour or two and determine whether I should go up to Bolton Valley....I may not go this afternoon if its not worth it...and will go later on tonight or early tomorrow.

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Yeah... It just seemed like yesterday's progs and the general "mood" was that something bigger was looking as a possibility yesterday even at 1,500ft. Will/ORH and I were discussing Winter Storm Watches at least at 1,500ft and higher. Even some of those progs yesterday had it snowing at 500ft today.

My feeling is this is verifying warmer than yesterday's models looked, not that anyone was seriously forecasting it. But if you read back through the posts yesterday, there were a lot of "this may be a much bigger deal than just upper mountain snowfall."

Its still early and we've got another 6 hours or so till the models really hammered northern VT but I'll be honest I thought it might be snowing a bit lower than 3,000ft on the Spine at 15z... though it looks like its down to 2,200ft at Coles Pond now.

May25.gif

I think you misunderstood me. I don't think anyone said like 6-12 at 1000'...we mentioned it snowing possibly at that level and some accumulation possible which is incredible. Where we thought more siggy amounts was at 1500' and up. I still think that is possible....I don't see much to change that thinking. Coles Pond snowing and seems to be on schedule. I mentioned yesterday that we may see many areas flip to snow above 1500' after 3-4 pm.
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I think you misunderstood me. I don't think anyone said like 6-12 at 1000'...we mentioned it snowing possibly at that level and some accumulation possible which is incredible. Where we thought more siggy amounts was at 1500' and up. I still think that is possible....I don't see much to change that thinking. Coles Pond snowing and seems to be on schedule. I mentioned yesterday that we may see many areas flip to snow above 1500' after 3-4 pm.

sometimes in these events i notice a subtle massaging of perception into "awt's". It early and as the winds go nnw/nw and heavier rates move in, some cooling will take place, but its clear to me that many didnt have flags aoa 1500 , not just 2-2.5k, and pfreak is just saying that level might have been over jealous...looking at trends thru noon, thou that may change and the next 4 to 6 hrs will be key to watching that play out
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I think you misunderstood me. I don't think anyone said like 6-12 at 1000'...we mentioned it snowing possibly at that level and some accumulation possible which is incredible. Where we thought more siggy amounts was at 1500' and up. I still think that is possible....I don't see much to change that thinking. Coles Pond snowing and seems to be on schedule. I mentioned yesterday that we may see many areas flip to snow above 1500' after 3-4 pm.

 

Oh yeah trust me, any snow is incredible.  I just thought for a more "incredible" event we were talking about some pretty big amounts even above 2,000-2,500ft. 

 

Still really early but from what I can gather, there's still only a few inches at the top of Mansfield with no accums below 3,000ft. 

 

Hopefully they pile it up this afternoon and evening up there.

 

This is the latest RAP valid 18z/2pm...

 

ruc_namer_003_precip_p01.gif

 

And this is valid 00z/8pm...

 

ruc_namer_009_precip_p01.gif

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sometimes in these events i notice a subtle massaging of perception into "awt's". It early and as the winds go nnw/nw and heavier rates move in, some cooling will take place, but its clear to me that many didnt have flags aoa 1500 , not just 2-2.5k, and pfreak is just saying that level might have been over jealous...looking at trends thru noon, thou that may change and the next 4 to 6 hrs will be key to watching that play out

 

Let it play out...the 1500' areas were mentioned as areas that were more windward or upslope favored where orographics help to lower snow levels. The larger amounts obviously will be above 2000-2500'...but only 3" of paste in the lower elevations like 1500-2000' will cause big problems. Clearly the lower the elevation the lower the snow amounts...it's not like 1500' will get the same as 2500'. 

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Arrived in Essex Junction a little while ago. I did not see any mixing at 1700 feet southeast of MPV at around 10am...so things will definitely have to cool off some this afternoon for a big time event. The precip rates aren't that impressive but we'll see what happens when the winds start to go more NNW/NW for upslope enhancement. I'm going to see how the temps are doing in an hour or two and determine whether I should go up to Bolton Valley....I may not go this afternoon if its not worth it...and will go later on tonight or early tomorrow.

 

Yeah that's sort of what I'm saying... it will have to cool off a decent bit for a big time event.  Still an awesome event for Memorial Day Weekend, but yesterday's models were definitely over-jealous with the cold in the lower levels at this time.

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Rain is mixing with snow at 2,450' on the Superstar Webcam at Killington, Vermont:

 

http://www.killington.com/winter/multimedia/webcam/superstar.html

 

Yeah definitely starting to snow there at 2,400ft.  That's a good sign.

 

Bad sign for Killington is the chairlift running and absolutely no one riding or skiing.  Looks pretty bleak.

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lol its just a classic over-panic during the first half of an event.  no worries.

 

We mentioned really getting the good precip rates and deformation was one of the considerations, so lets see what happenes when the upslope machine starts. Temps and precip rates are sort of hand in hand here. If everything stays above 2500'...my guess is QPF has more to do with it, instead of temps itself since these are related to this event. 

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sometimes in these events i notice a subtle massaging of perception into "awt's". It early and as the winds go nnw/nw and heavier rates move in, some cooling will take place, but its clear to me that many didnt have flags aoa 1500 , not just 2-2.5k, and pfreak is just saying that level might have been over jealous...looking at trends thru noon, thou that may change and the next 4 to 6 hrs will be key to watching that play out

 

 

Yeah that's sort of what I'm saying... it will have to cool off a decent bit for a big time event.  Still an awesome event for Memorial Day Weekend, but yesterday's models were definitely over-jealous with the cold in the lower levels at this time.

Do you guys have the same phone?

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