TWCCraig Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 any money this is melting flakes high reflectivity, damn wonder if cat paws are falling in SW CT elevation I was thinking that some of the higher reflectivities are being caused by sleet/graupel. There was one also heavy batch of precip over LI that had a good graupel signature to it on CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Looks like some flakes mixing in on the MPV cam! http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/cams/montpelier.shtml Nice! MPV 41F at 13z too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 45/42 sheet drizzle. Lovely. Might actually fire up the wood stove tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Looks like some flakes mixing in on the MPV cam! http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/cams/montpelier.sh Looks like theres flakes at the Killington Golf Course Cam too, I dont know what the elevation is but it must be near the base. http://www.killington.com/winter/multimedia/webcam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Looks like snow on top of Mt. Tecumseh (4000') but rain on welsh-dickey(2800'). 44.2/42 @ 1100'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Looks like snow on top of Mt. Tecumseh (4000') but rain on welsh-dickey(2800'). 44.2/42 @ 1100'. The Mt Wash auto road stations show 32F down to 4kft. 3300ft is 35F so probably rain with some catpaws mixed in down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 The Mt Wash auto road stations show 32F down to 4kft. 3300ft is 35F so probably rain with some catpaws mixed in down there. Although I guess I should add that MWN is -FZRA right now so I guess that's the glazing line and not the snow line...yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Neighboorhood Davis': 600':45.6 1100': 44.2 1800': 41.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Nice! MPV 41F at 13z too. That bottom cam looks like its probably higher than the airport. Impressive. Co-worker at Mtn Ops said still 3000ft or so before you hit true all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Saturday...very minor update to fine tune probability of precipitation/temperatures and winds based on current observation. Radar continues to show bands of light to moderate rain rotating across our County Warning Area...with some bright band signatures associated with the melting layer on kcxx radar. Water vapor shows a classic backside deformation zn developing across central Vermont into northern New York at this time. This will produce periods of rain...with some heavy at times through today. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts look good. Just starting to see rises on local waterways and expect river flooding to become more of an issue by this afternoon. Flood Watch looks very good. Otherwise...temperatures will hold in the M/u 30s mountains to l/m40s valleys with some l/m50s possible in the slv today. Have discarded the lav guidance which shows btv dropping into the middle 30s by noon today...its late may and this seems highly unlikely. As for the snow...Pico web cam shows The Summit is white...with some mixing of snow and rain down to the Killington base area. Current accumulating snow levels are around 3500ft...expect them to drop between 2000 and 2500 feet by this evening...with some accumulation possible. Meanwhile...accumulating snow will continue across the eastern dacks above 3500 feet...as Whiteface Summit temperature is down to 27f. Overall forecast remains on track with expected quantitative precipitation forecast amounts and impacts across our County Warning Area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 SLK is now 37/35 with UP at 1663ft. Who knows what that may be if its actually graupel or sleety...or just mixed rain/snow and the ASOS can't figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 SLK is now 37/35 with UP at 1663ft. Who knows what that may be if its actually graupel or sleety...or just mixed rain/snow and the ASOS can't figure it out. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Hvy rain continues here...up to 45! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 44F here and overcast with 0.15" of rain falling since midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 LOL AFN flips to snow at about 0-3Z. Gets interesting at MPV/MVL between 15-18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 LOL It will have to get a heck of a lot colder in the next 9 hours for that to happen at MVL. Mansfield has been 31-32F now for 5 hours straight, yesterday's NAM runs had the summit in the 20s at like 12-15z. Current profile is this: 3950ft....31F (summit station) 3600ft...32F (top of Stowe's Quad) 2700ft...35F 2100ft...38F (Bolton Valley Base) 730ft....43/40 at MVL How this goes to that Nam sounding by 21z will be real interesting with no real CAA from anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 AFN flips to snow at about 0-3Z. Gets interesting at MPV/MVL between 15-18Z. MVL is going to have to plummet somehow for it to get interesting by 2pm. A friend who lives at Bolton at 2200ft on Wentworth Rd just text me that its all rain up there. Bolton station is 38F on Wunderground, so even they will have to really start to drop for excitement this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 MVL is going to have to plummet somehow for it to get interesting by 2pm. A friend who lives at Bolton at 2200ft on Wentworth Rd just text me that its all rain up there. Bolton station is 38F on Wunderground, so even they will have to really start to drop for excitement this afternoon. Well the NAM is definitely dropping it between 15Z and 18Z. Date: 3 hour Eta valid 15Z SAT 25 MAY 13 Station: KMPV Latitude: 44.20 Longitude: -72.57 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 121 SFC 964 420 3.2 2.3 94 0.9 2.8 336 18 279.2 280.0 277.7 292.1 4.68 2 950 538 1.9 1.5 98 0.3 1.7 340 24 279.1 279.9 277.4 291.5 4.50 3 900 971 -0.9 -0.9 100 0.0 -0.9 355 39 280.6 281.3 277.5 291.7 3.97 4 850 1426 -2.7 -3.0 98 0.3 -2.8 21 43 283.3 284.0 278.4 293.6 3.61 Date: 6 hour Eta valid 18Z SAT 25 MAY 13 Station: KMPV Latitude: 44.20 Longitude: -72.57 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 112 SFC 963 420 0.5 0.1 97 0.4 0.4 327 18 276.7 277.3 275.4 287.6 4.00 2 950 529 -0.0 -0.1 100 0.0 -0.0 335 24 277.1 277.8 275.7 288.1 4.00 3 900 959 -1.4 -1.5 99 0.1 -1.4 350 49 280.0 280.7 277.0 290.6 3.80 4 850 1414 -3.2 -3.3 100 0.0 -3.3 12 51 282.8 283.4 278.0 292.7 3.53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Going back at BDL's records... the May 25, 1967 low max record was a miserable day. Over 2" of rain and a trace of snow. Temperatures were in the 30s during the morning too with a midnight early high of 48F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Well the NAM is definitely dropping it between 15Z and 18Z. Date: 3 hour Eta valid 15Z SAT 25 MAY 13 Station: KMPV Latitude: 44.20 Longitude: -72.57 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 121 SFC 964 420 3.2 2.3 94 0.9 2.8 336 18 279.2 280.0 277.7 292.1 4.68 2 950 538 1.9 1.5 98 0.3 1.7 340 24 279.1 279.9 277.4 291.5 4.50 3 900 971 -0.9 -0.9 100 0.0 -0.9 355 39 280.6 281.3 277.5 291.7 3.97 4 850 1426 -2.7 -3.0 98 0.3 -2.8 21 43 283.3 284.0 278.4 293.6 3.61 Date: 6 hour Eta valid 18Z SAT 25 MAY 13 Station: KMPV Latitude: 44.20 Longitude: -72.57 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 112 SFC 963 420 0.5 0.1 97 0.4 0.4 327 18 276.7 277.3 275.4 287.6 4.00 2 950 529 -0.0 -0.1 100 0.0 -0.0 335 24 277.1 277.8 275.7 288.1 4.00 3 900 959 -1.4 -1.5 99 0.1 -1.4 350 49 280.0 280.7 277.0 290.6 3.80 4 850 1414 -3.2 -3.3 100 0.0 -3.3 12 51 282.8 283.4 278.0 292.7 3.53 Yeah you are right...just seems unrealistic to me to somehow drop nearly 3C in temps by 18z today in the lower levels. If that is right, then the freezing level is down just under 2000ft by 2pm, with all snow falling down to 1000-1200ft in 3.5 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Here's a pic from the WCAX transmitter on top of Mount Mansfield. You can see the coop rain gauge up there too. https://twitter.com/stevebottari/status/338266359668543488/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 It will have to get a heck of a lot colder in the next 9 hours for that to happen at MVL. Mansfield has been 31-32F now for 5 hours straight, yesterday's NAM runs had the summit in the 20s at like 12-15z. Current profile is this: 3950ft....31F (summit station) 3600ft...32F (top of Stowe's Quad) 2700ft...35F 2100ft...38F (Bolton Valley Base) 730ft....43/40 at MVL How this goes to that Nam sounding by 21z will be real interesting with no real CAA from anywhere. I felt the NAM was a bit too cold. I'd really doubt if snow gets down to Bolton's base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Pete's hood looks like it is 40F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Here's a pic from the WCAX transmitter on top of Mount Mansfield. You can see the coop rain gauge up there too. https://twitter.com/stevebottari/status/338266359668543488/photo/1 Yeah I posted that earlier...the Coop will only report the snow that falls in that bucket in the background, regardless of what is on the ground...so hopefully this snow is getting in the bucket and not melting from earlier rainwater. And they will only check it once a day at 4pm. If anything though, it usually does semi-ok getting snow to fall into the gauge in wet snow scenarios so we might get a decent reading. If the snow becomes drier, it'll really under catch with the 40mph winds up there now. Those trees are SE of it so it catches SE flow snow better being in the lee. It is notoriously awful at getting snow in the catch on NW flow.God forbid they measure what is on the ground. That's why the stake reading will be more accurate and often the snow depth increases more than the "new" snow measurement. Those guys will walk through a foot of snow to get to the can and find only 5.5" in the tennis ball container and that's what they report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Yeah I posted that earlier...the Coop will only report the snow that falls in that bucket in the background, regardless of what is on the ground...so hopefully this snow is getting in the bucket and not melting from earlier rainwater. And they will only check it once a day at 4pm. If anything though, it usually does semi-ok getting snow to fall into the gauge in wet snow scenarios so we might get a decent reading. If the snow becomes drier, it'll really under catch with the 40mph winds up there now. Those trees are SE of it so it catches SE flow snow better being in the lee. It is notoriously awful at getting snow in the catch on NW flow. They don't measure the accumulation on the ground? Or do you just mean for liquid equivalent they only measure what falls in the gauge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 43.1/41. I think I see some grains mixing in during heavier echoes. But it could be wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 They don't measure the accumulation on the ground? Or do you just mean for liquid equivalent they only measure what falls in the gauge?The "new" snow measurements are taken from the 8-inch rain gauge inside those wind-chime looking things. What is on the ground is irrelevant except for the snow depth (which is why that is a lot more useful than tallying up the daily snowfalls).That's why my snowboards collected 287" of snow this past winter at 3000ft (because they are on the ground), while the COOP's can only recorded 156". That's because only 156" found its way into the elevated gauge (like trying to get snow to fall straight down into a coffee can) and then it's only measured once per day. If there is rain before or after the snow that can be a problem too. I've had this discussion with the guy who runs the program with WCAX...he can drive a snowmobile through a foot of snow but his job isn't to record snowfall if its not in the can. That's why the depth will go up 10" and they report only 6" of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 43.1/41. I think I see some grains mixing in during heavier echoes. But it could be wishful thinking.Nose against the glassI did get to see snow atop Mt Washington on 7/1/2010 (I think) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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