Amped Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Heaviest precip looks well west of the 00z NAM had it right about where the 00z GFS has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 BDL down to 47F...don't think they see that again all day tomorrow...the record low max for them tomorrow is 48F. If BDL can pull of a record low max of like 46F or lower...then it would be really impressive. The latest date of a 46F high is May 11th. 47F here at my place. Incredible. I doubt we get into the 50s tomorrow... probably struggle out of the mid 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Definitely seems strange to not see much about it mentioned in the AFD. GYX finally threw the S word into their AFD briefly for the first time this afternoon for the high terrain. Sometimes I don't get the point of AFDs unless they're going to discuss the uncertainty of possibilities. If you're just explaining what will happen that sort of defeats the purpose IMO... it's the one product where you can really talk about the range of options and why you as a forecaster favor one over another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Sometimes I don't get the point of AFDs unless they're going to discuss the uncertainty of possibilities. If you're just explaining what will happen that sort of defeats the purpose IMO... it's the one product where you can really talk about the range of options and why you as a forecaster favor one over another. Yeah I agree. I don't like to bash NWS since they generally do a great job, but I thought the 4pm AFD was pretty poor given what the models were showing. I mean, if you are so confident that snow won't fall below 2500 feet, that is fine...but I'm not sure how you would actually come to that conclusion today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 43.6F here with light rain, good night all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Yeah I agree. I don't like to bash NWS since they generally do a great job, but I thought the 4pm AFD was pretty poor given what the models were showing. I mean, if you are so confident that snow won't fall below 2500 feet, that is fine...but I'm not sure how you would actually come to that conclusion today. Sometimes I think the AFD is a waste of time when it's just regurgitating a narrative version of the GFS. Especially when there is a potentially high impact event that is the one place you can really go into detail and discuss possibilities. I try to check out the AFDs before I go on air but don't always have the time... sometimes they can be useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Just got home and looked at the NAM...can't believe it actually probably won't get out of the 40's here tomorrow...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 CON is already 47F...the low max for tomorrow on the threadex extremes page is 48F in 1967 so that will probably be beaten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Sometimes I think the AFD is a waste of time when it's just regurgitating a narrative version of the GFS. Especially when there is a potentially high impact event that is the one place you can really go into detail and discuss possibilities. I try to check out the AFDs before I go on air but don't always have the time... sometimes they can be useful. If it had been merely that, they would have been hitting the snow hard. I looked at 12z MOS and it really seemed liek the forecast was a rip and read on MOS which was much more tame than the actual model outputs today. MOS does weight climo some...so I wonder if that is going to end up being a big flaw here...or perhaps the MOS guidance will win because of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 If it had been merely that, they would have been hitting the snow hard. I looked at 12z MOS and it really seemed liek the forecast was a rip and read on MOS which was much more tame than the actual model outputs today. MOS does weight climo some...so I wonder if that is going to end up being a big flaw here...or perhaps the MOS guidance will win because of it. I'm just worried about the accumulation part during the day... being May 25th and everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 I'm just worried about the accumulation part during the day... being May 25th and everything. If its heavy, it will accumulate..it could be June 25th and it would accumulate if you have 1/4 SN+....now the question is will we get that? The models are saying yes. But if its lighter, then we definitel yhave a problem during daylight...and even during dark the lower you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 My memory of 1967 (summer of love fwiw) is that was cool. Of course then there is 1977 and the 5/10 snow bomb along the pike to the coast and that summer had some serious heat. And 2002 was a pretty hit summer as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 My memory of 1967 (summer of love fwiw) is that was cool. Of course then there is 1977 and the 5/10 snow bomb along the pike to the coast and that summer had some serious heat. And 2002 was a pretty hit summer as well. Down in Monterrey with Eric Victor Burdon and the Animals. Ah the summer of love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 00z NAM has 925mb temps below 0C by 21z at ORH tomorrow afternoon...so a very good chance they get a period of snow or at least flakes mixed in before ending near dinner time or just after if it panned out as the NAM shows. I actually am working 5-1130, so I'll only be available to drive to the snow before 5, so I'm hoping wawa mixes earlier then predicted (although some haven't predicted it at all). hey what happened to CTsnowstorm? I would have expected him to be all over this? I see he hasn't checked the site since April. He finished Junior year at Lyndon in mid may, and he's doing an 11 week internship in State College, PA. I'm assuming he hasn't had much time to post. I haven't really been on the site much recently either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 If its heavy, it will accumulate..it could be June 25th and it would accumulate if you have 1/4 SN+....now the question is will we get that? The models are saying yes. But if its lighter, then we definitel yhave a problem during daylight...and even during dark the lower you go. Yeah, that's my concern, if the snow turns out to only be light or moderate... but hopefully it's heavy enough to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Well, the temps hardly moved at all last night. Daily max (so far) of 42.2* at 12:45a.m. Overnight low of 41.9* at 2:30a.m. Currently 42.0. Doesn't get much steadier than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 See....what did I tell you. It is all about the forecaster for the AFD from BTV. TABER is an outdoorsman and a skier so he's more interested in the mountain weather...he usually forecasts and writes about the high terrain even though they "technically don't forecast for the summits." But he would also get the camping/hiking impact piece of Memorial Day weekend. Now this is a freakin' AFD, complete with even mentions on how great picture taking time of white, snow covered mountains may occur on Sunday evening lol. 000 FXUS61 KBTV 250837 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 437 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. FURTHERMORE...SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS OF THE ADIRONDACK AND GREEN MOUNTAINS. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS...WITH SOME RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 440 AM EDT SATURDAY...OVERALL FCST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS ACRS OUR CWA. STILL ANTICIPATING STORM TOTAL PREICP OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCH AMOUNTS ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES...PARTS OF THE CPV...AND MTNS OF NORTH-CENTRAL VT BY SUNDAY AFTN. IN ADDITION...STILL EXPECTING SOME ACCUMULATING HEAVY WET SNOW ABOVE 2000 FEET...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS AND GREEN MTNS. FCST CHALLENGE IS IMPACTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ON AREA WATERWAYS...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF SNOW ACRS HIGHER TRRN. WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVELY TILTED 7/5H CIRCULATION ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE ACRS OUR FA ASSOCIATED WITH RRQ OF 25H JET OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS CLOSED SYSTEM WL ADVECT PLENTY OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO OUR CWA THRU TONIGHT...WITH FAVORABLE BACKSIDE DEFORMATION DEVELOPING BY THIS EVENING. OVERALL...MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM BECMG VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE...AND THE ASSOCIATED QPF ACRS OUR CWA. GFS/NAM AND ECMWF ALL SHOW IMPRESSIVE 7H FGEN FORCING...STRONG 850 TO 500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND DEEP 850 TO 500MB UVVS ACRS OUR CWA THRU 06Z SUNDAY. THIS WL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN...WHICH WL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THRU THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SYSTEM WL TRANSITION FROM LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO MESOSCALE FEATURES DRIVE BY THE TRRN. GFS/NAM SHOWS VERY FAVORABLE 850 TO 700MB RH AND LLVL WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ENHANCED PRECIP ACRS THE CPV...WESTERN SLOPES...AND NORTH/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT. THIS FAVORABLE MOISTURE/LIFT IS PRESENT THRU 18Z SUNDAY...BEFORE FINALLY WEAKENING BY EVENING. WL CONT TO MENTION POPS NEAR 100% FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY/CAT POPS ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. GIVEN...THE DEEP CLOSED CIRCULATION FEEL PRECIP/CLOUDS WL LINGER THRU MIDDAY SUNDAY...BUT WL TAPER OFF BY AFTN. ALSO...FEEL QPF/POPS WL BE MUCH LESS ACRS THE SLV...AS MODELS SHOW LIMITED LIFT/RH. THINKING MOSTLY LOW LIKELY WESTERN DACKS TO CHC POPS SLV. THIS AREA WL ALSO SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS ON SAT AND SUNDAY...HIGHS IN THE 50S. STILL ANTICIPATING STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS BTWN 1 AND 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...ACRS THE CPV...WESTERN SLOPES...AND MTNS OF NORTHERN VT. THINKING CPV CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLW WL HELP TO ENHANCE QPF AMOUNTS ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND CPV. MUCH LESS QPF IS ANTICIPATED ACRS THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS...GENERALLY <0.25". ALSO...THINKING AMOUNTS ACRS THE CT RIVER VALLEY WL BE CLOSER TO 1.0". THIS WL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS...WITH SOME MAIN STEM FLOODING POSSIBLE. SEE HDYRO SECTION BLW FOR MORE INFO. NOW FOR THE HARDEST PART OF THE FCST...TRYING TO DETERMINE SNOW LEVELS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS. NAM/GFS AND LOCAL WRF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THERMAL PROFILES BECMG COLD ENOUGH BY 00Z THIS EVENING FOR SNOW ABOVE 2000 FT. STILL HAVING A HARD TIME DETERMINING WHERE THE COLD AIR IS COMING FROM...AS OUR LLVL CAA IS LIMITED. THINKING DYNAMIC COOLING AND HEAVIER PRECIP WL MIX COLDER AIR ALOFT TWD THE SFC...AS COLD CORE LOW MOVES CLOSER. THIS IS EXTREMELY TRICKY TO DETERMINE...ESPECIALLY IN LATE MAY...WITH A VERY HIGH SUN ANGLE. HAVE NOTED 28F AT WHITEFACE AND 32 ATOP MOUNT MANSFIELD....WITH WHITEFACE WEB CAM ALREADY SHOWING THE GROUND WHITE...BEFORE SUNSET ON FRIDAY EVENING. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW A RIBBON OF 85H TEMPS BTWN -1C AND -3C...AND 925MB TEMPS NEAR 0C DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA TODAY. THINKING SNOW LEVELS WL START NEAR SUMMIT LEVEL (3500 TO 4000 FEET) TODAY...BUT DROP TO NEAR 2000 FT BY THIS EVENING. EXPECT A SHARP INCREASE IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACRS THE MTNS AS YOU INCREASE YOUR ELEVATION ABOVE 2500 FT. THINKING BTWN 1 AND 3 INCHES WL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING BTWN 2000 AND 2500 FEET...WITH OVER 6 INCHES LIKELY AT THE SUMMITS FROM MT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK. I REALIZE WE TECHNICALLY DON`T FCST FOR THE SUMMITS...BUT GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WKND AND POTENTIAL FOR HIKERS/CAMPERS IN THE MTNS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WL ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL. ON A SIDE NOTE...IF WE CAN CLR SKIES LATE SUNDAY AFTN...THE SNOW COVERED MTN SUMMITS SHOULD MAKE FOR SOME GREAT PICTURES. THE COMBINATION OF PRECIP/CLOUDS AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...WL SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U30S MTNS TO L/M 40S CPV/CT RIVER VALLEY. WARMEST TEMPS WL BE ACRS THE SLV...READINGS WL WARM INTO THE 50S. TEMPS WL ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...AS WINDS/PRECIP AND CLOUDS PREVAIL...THINKING L/M 30S MTNS TO U30S TO L40S. ON SUNDAY...TEMPS WL BECM TRICKY...ESPECIALLY IF WE BREAK OUT INTO SOME SUN LATE IN THE AFTN. EXPECT LATE DAY HIGHS FOR THE CPV...WITH VALUES REACHING THE L/M 50S...WITH MAINLY 40S IN THE MTNS AND L60S IN THE SLV. MOST OF THE MARATHON WL EXPERIENCE LIGHT RAIN WITH COOL TEMPS AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE ON SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE BY SUNDAY AFTN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR 50F...AND LIGHTER WINDS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 440 AM EDT SATURDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF WL SLOWLY LIFT NE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WL RESULT IN A SLOW CLRING TREND WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LVLS BY MONDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST ACRS THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE DACKS AND PARTS OF VT. THIS MAYBE DIFFICULT GIVEN THE VERY SATURATED LLVLS AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IF SKIES CLR AND WINDS DECREASE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 440 AM EDT SATURDAY...PATTERN CHANGE TAKES PLACE IN THE EXTENDED AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXISTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL START TO SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKE PLACE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WHEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AND WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN. FIRST THE WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS WEDNESDAY FOR CONVECTION AS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MOVES INTO THE REGION. THUS HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LINGERING THREAT ON THURSDAY AS FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE BORDER. ONCE IT DOES...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND BRINGS IN NOTICEABLY WARMER LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THIS SUGGESTS HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LACK OF FORCING SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE THREAT IS MINIMAL AND HAVE THUS KEPT THE FORECAST DRY ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES AT MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO CLOUDS...FOG...AND RAIN. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE KMSS WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS THEY WILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST THAT IS PRODUCING ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WATCH FOR WINDS TO INCREASE AFTER 14Z FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 440 AM SATURDAY...A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WILL CONTINUE TODAY...STORM TOTAL PREICP VALUES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES...PARTS OF THE CPV...AND MTNS OF NORTH-CENTRAL VT BY SUNDAY AFTN. LOCALLY RUN SSHP MODEL HYDROGRAPHS SUGGEST THESE TOTALS WILL LIKELY BRING NUMEROUS SMALL STREAMS TO BANKFULL...AND SEVERAL MAINSTEM RIVERS INTO FLOOD BY THIS AFTN INTO SUNDAY. THUS A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE FOR THIS POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...THE RIVERS OF MOST CONCERN WOULD BE THE MISSISQUOI...LAMOILLE...OTTER...AND PASSUMPSIC IN VERMONT...AND THE AUSABLE RIVER IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS IN RAINFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS...MOST RIVER CRESTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... AS OF 440 PM SATURDAY...LOOKING TO BE A PRETTY MISERABLE START TO THE PRIME BOATING SEASON ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A STORM MORE TYPICAL OF WINTER WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE. FOR THAT REASON, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE WINDS FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS, WITH WAVES ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE ULTIMATELY BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6 FEET. A STEADY RAIN AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S ON TODAY WILL ADD TO THE MISERY. THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR BOATING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. && .CLIMATE... WITH THE UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TODAY...SOME RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE APPROACHED OR BROKEN. THEY ARE LISTED BELOW. BURLINGTON: 51F (1921,1925) MONTPELIER: 48F (1967) MASSENA: 55F (1969,1979) ST JOHNSBURY: 52F (1931,1925) && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ002>012-016>019. NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-031-034-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS HYDROLOGY...TABER MARINE...WFO BTV CLIMATE...WFO BTV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 000 WWUS81 KBTV 250758 SPSBTV SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 358 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013 NYZ031-034-VTZ003-004-006>008-016>019-252100- WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA- WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON- EASTERN RUTLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID...NEWPORT... ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER... ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON... EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON 358 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013 ...SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT... CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 2000 FEET BY THIS EVENING...WITH SOME MINOR WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS HEAVY WET SNOW MAY CAUSE A FEW ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND BRING DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS IN THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN TOWNS. IN ADDITION...CAMPERS AND HIKERS SHOULD PLAN FOR WINTER LIKE CONDITIONS IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN SUMMITS THIS WEEKEND. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Stowe web can showing accumulations still up near 3500ft...actually it's probably more like 3300ft based on the trails seen white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Those snow levels on the nrn and wrn slopes wil be lower than 2k. Euro still says ORH and especially Wachusett have a shot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 The warm side of the TROWAL may screw my chance at seeing any flakes, but it will be cold, wet, and miserable regardless. 44F and -Ra right now. 2.52" of rain since Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 The warm side of the TROWAL may screw my chance at seeing any flakes, but it will be cold, wet, and miserable regardless. 44F and -Ra right now. 2.52" of rain since Tuesday. I bet the mtns to your NW are white tomorrow morning....just may be obscured by clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Maybe I'm trying to convince myself not to drive back home, but what I've seen this morning makes me think BTV's latest AFD is correct with 2000ft+ seeing snow, instead of down lower like some of yesterday's models. The question of where does the cold come from is a good one...as most stations are about where they were last night. SLK still at 39F with low 40s in the Greens around 1000ft. The CAA will have to come down from aloft but it hasn't so far with BTV putting ~0.5" in the bucket in the past 6 hours and 0.15" hourlies at times. They still sit at 45F. The latest runs of the RAP are pretty warm at H85 this afternoon and evening....0C to -2C....instead of some of those NAM -3 to -5 values. It will be interesting to see how today goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Those snow levels on the nrn and wrn slopes wil be lower than 2k. Euro still says ORH and especially Wachusett have a shot of snow. What's the ECM have for H850s? The latest RAP runs won't get it done...very marginal up there. 21z today... 00z.... 03z tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 I don't think we get snow levels- at least accumulating snow below 2500 feet. I do think 3500+ could see quite a bit of snow as I suspect there will be a sharp gradient from dusting to dumpage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 What town is kev in on cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Those snow levels on the nrn and wrn slopes wil be lower than 2k. Euro still says ORH and especially Wachusett have a shot of snow. Scott--do you see any shot of flakes mixing in out this way? Probalbly a longshot, but anything anywhere in NE on Memorial Day is a longshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 I don't think we get snow levels- at least accumulating snow below 2500 feet. I do think 3500+ could see quite a bit of snow as I suspect there will be a sharp gradient from dusting to dumpage. Ok...I am starting to lean that way this morning too. And I'm glad I'm not seeing things, you and I are often on the same page with the overall feel of an event. I was buying into some accums coming down low yesterday and some of those model runs were pretty nuts.My flags are the fact that not much change happened overnight with temps...even without sunlight and rather heavy at times precip. Still 31-32F top of Mansfield won't let those flakes get much more than 1000ft below the summit. My general rule for flakes in steady/saturated air/precip is about 1000ft below the freezing line. Even the 6z GFS only has a -3C lobe into the Adks but its pretty marginal in the Greens. Even by 00z this evening its near 0C across the Spine and then warms us back above freezing at H85 by 3z tonight! So it'll have to happen this morning and afternoon if its going to. Almost looks like the core of the H85 cold is over the Dacks now instead of the Greens like yesterday progs had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 This map just screams "Memorial Day". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Ok...I am starting to lean that way this morning too. And I'm glad I'm not seeing things, you and I are often on the same page with the overall feel of an event. I was buying into some accums coming down low yesterday and some of those model runs were pretty nuts. My flags are the fact that not much change happened overnight with temps...even without sunlight and rather heavy at times precip. Still 31-32F top of Mansfield won't let those flakes get much more than 1000ft below the summit. My general rule for flakes in steady/saturated air/precip is about 1000ft below the freezing line. Even the 6z GFS only has a -3C lobe into the Adks but its pretty marginal in the Greens. Even by 00z this evening its near 0C across the Spine and then warms us back above freezing at H85 by 3z tonight! So it'll have to happen this morning and afternoon if its going to. Almost looks like the core of the H85 cold is over the Dacks now instead of the Greens like yesterday progs had. Werd. Well, we'll see. Somebody I know is going to Marcy today. They are categorically insane. We'll see what they report. Other than "whiteout, death conditions" I'll be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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