Ginx snewx Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Exactly... and its one reason why people always get excited when talking about dynamical cooling. Its the non-linear relationship that heavier and larger hydrometers have on the atmosphere. And in this particular case, we have all factors working together. NNW to NW winds... upslope component will produce adiabatic lift to cool the column for the NW facing slopes. Same flow will help to enhance precipitation rates for NW facing slopes Deformation zone with TROWAL providing additional isentropic lift above mountains. The combination should allow for a very deep and moist vertical profile. This is just the sort of profile you want to have for very large dendrites that will aggregate as snow falls into the melting layer. As mentioned before, huge snowflakes decend further down in the atmosphere before melting, which allows for long isothermal layers. If the melting layer starts at 925 hPa (~ 760m ~ 2500 ft)... with very heavy precipitation rates you can oftentimes see the snow line (level at which 50% of hydrometers are still frozen) dip as much as 450m (1500 ft) below the freezing line, which means the snow line could theoretically be seen as far down as 1000 ft. Of course it all depends on the precipitation rate, but with all the factors working in our favor, especially on upslope locations, you have to like your chances, even for those between 1500-2000 feet under those especially heavy snowfall rates. with TTs near 50+ this is going to be an incredible event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 I hope people can comprehend what it means to see soundings in areas like CON as snow briefly....even if only flakes. Threatening latest flakes on record for some of those spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Exactly... and its one reason why people always get excited when talking about dynamical cooling. Its the non-linear relationship that heavier and larger hydrometers have on the atmosphere. And in this particular case, we have all factors working together. NNW to NW winds... upslope component will produce adiabatic lift to cool the column for the NW facing slopes. Same flow will help to enhance precipitation rates for NW facing slopes Deformation zone with TROWAL providing additional isentropic lift above mountains. The combination should allow for a very deep and moist vertical profile. This is just the sort of profile you want to have for very large dendrites that will aggregate as snow falls into the melting layer. As mentioned before, huge snowflakes decend further down in the atmosphere before melting, which allows for long isothermal layers. If the melting layer starts at 925 hPa (~ 760m ~ 2500 ft)... with very heavy precipitation rates you can oftentimes see the snow line (level at which 50% of hydrometers are still frozen) dip as much as 450m (1500 ft) below the freezing line, which means the snow line could theoretically be seen as far down as 1000 ft. Of course it all depends on the precipitation rate, but with all the factors working in our favor, especially on upslope locations, you have to like your chances, even for those between 1500-2000 feet under those especially heavy snowfall rates. That's what amazes me. You are going to have excellent snow growth due to mid level frontogenesis and TROWAL.....and now throw in the upslope machine. Some of those soundings conditionally unstable too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 43F with heavy downpours of rain, 0.78" so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Awesome post! I see this all the time locally. A lot of folks around here who ski notice it too...we are always commenting how the snow level on the Spine (Mt Mansfield for us in Stowe) is often quite a bit lower in marginal orographic events than neighboring mountains just outside of the Spine. My town is bordered by two spines in fact...the Worcester Range to the east with a 3000-3600ft ridge line and the true Green Mountain Spine to our west. The main spine to the west gets the NW flow upslope and can have snow levels up to 1000ft lower than the Worcester Range which is like 10 miles east and outside of the better upslope assisted cooling region. With this event I can envision something like this event...this was last April when 30" fell at 3,500ft (about the cloud level in this photo) while only 2-4" of 34F slop fell at 1500ft (where photo was taken). Between 1500ft and 2000ft, the accumulations went up from 2-4" to like 12-15" (where the trees become caked) as that was the difference between 34F and 32F. Up higher where temps were 28-30F, over 2 feet fell on 3" of QPF. It may pan out similar this weekend if it goes right I was perusing the BYTV cameras and noticed how fully leaved out things are even at elevation, going to be interesting what transpires and potentially damaging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Anyone think killington has a shot at big totals around hotels near 2k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Do we know how tall powderfreak is? I'm 6'1 so it wouldnt work on a chicks body, but if PF is tall too then who knows, lol. I guess I wasn't to be demasculinized as a met on a weatherboard. Haha I'm 6'3" and 195lbs...built pretty solid with Scandinavian genes. I'm definitely a lot bigger than that chick, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Anyone think killington has a shot at big totals around hotels near 2k Yes...they def have a shot there too...better to the north, but I'd be shocked if Killington doesn't get hit decently. Whether they put up really big totals (like double digits) is still in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Some of those soundings conditionally unstable too. Yea saw that CSI with Thunder snow late May, sweeeet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Well enjoy Will. Maybe we can get a good band to curl SE into the ORH hills and make it interesting close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Haha I'm 6'3" and 195lbs...built pretty solid with Scandinavian genes. I'm definitely a lot bigger than that chick, lol. Not any more LOL, forever in the minds of weenies as that little guy with Will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 It is sick that I am looking at the NAM banding site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Yes...they def have a shot there too...better to the north, but I'd be shocked if Killington doesn't get hit decently. Whether they put up really big totals (like double digits) is still in question. im thinkin of a trek tomm eve. The inn at bolton valley is prob best bet (2100') or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Yea saw that CSI with Thunder snow late May, sweeeet. When you have a dryslot impinge like that...it's going to make it a little unstable. Probably just means bands of heavier precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Not any more LOL, forever in the minds of weenies as that little guy with Will Lol..yeah he is done now...demasculinized by photoshop. Jayhawk needs to make a pic of him hanging from a chairlift if he misses this storm... in that same woman's body. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 I wonder how much Kevin is cringing that his Memorial Day weekend thread about bikinis, beers, bananna hammocks has been taken over by the possibility of historic snow and even some interjection from Ryan about record low maxes BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 When you have a dryslot impinge like that...it's going to make it a little unstable. Probably just means bands of heavier precip. Feb 2013, seriously look at those CSI bands,. With some warm air trying to wrap in too, could be some real interesting results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 I don't think ORH will cool off enough by 05z to get the record low max of 42F in 1967 for 5/25...but the record low of 35F on 5/26 is in jeopardy...ORH could be like like 34F and R/S mix as the precip is ending around 05z tomorrow night. I don't think they'll quite get it, but it will probably be very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Not any more LOL, forever in the minds of weenies as that little guy with Will lol I know! Done for. Here's a recent shot from March of me, try to think of this rather than some chick holding ORH's hand. Main reason to post this though is look behind me...that is facing due NW from the 4000ft ridge-line above tree line on Mansfield. It is very flat to the NW....there is absolutely no barrier straight into Quebec and beyond. Moist NW-flow from the low levels comes straight across all that flat land and hits a 4000ft ridge/wall (which provides better lift than just a single peak, because there is really no way for air to go around it). That should play a big part in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Wunderground app has me getting to 30F. Not sure where they get their data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 BDL down to 47F...don't think they see that again all day tomorrow...the record low max for them tomorrow is 48F. If BDL can pull of a record low max of like 46F or lower...then it would be really impressive. The latest date of a 46F high is May 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Clown map pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 43F here with light rain. The temperature is holding steady for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 45.5/42 . Don't feel like it can snow but getting there. Is this a situation where maybe its 4 deg colder /1000 ft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 SREF plumes crush interior VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 SREF plumes crush interior VT. I wonder if BTV will finally sart hitting it harder with the 4am update. I was pretty perplexed why they didnt even mention much possibility at 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 45.5/42 . Don't feel like it can snow but getting there. Is this a situation where maybe its 4 deg colder /1000 ft?You won't be flirting with snow until midday tomorrow. MWN is down to 32F now with probably some glazing occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Adirondacks gettin a crushing right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 Adirondacks gettin a crushing right now? Prob only the highest peaks right now...SLK is still 40F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 I wonder if BTV will finally sart hitting it harder with the 4am update. I was pretty perplexed why they didnt even mention much possibility at 4pm.Definitely seems strange to not see much about it mentioned in the AFD. GYX finally threw the S word into their AFD briefly for the first time this afternoon for the high terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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