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Memorial Day Weekend Coastal/Snow


Damage In Tolland

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It's killing me to not be able to be there tmrw. I tried.

 

 

I can't believe my good luck...like you mentioned earlier, maybe this is my 12/9/05 that you lucked into for a wedding too, lol. Hopefully it goes close to as modeled.

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If this storm performs as modeled tomorrow, there is going to be snow down into BTV I think...at least flakes mixed in. We'll just have to track how well the BL is cooling vs models as we go into tonight and early tomorrow.

I'm trying to decide a decision making time...I figure we should have an idea by 6-8am tomorrow as to how low this snow will get or at least how it's progressing.

The models make me think tomorrow afternoon and evening is the "go-time" so if I left at 8am I could be home by noon. I will say the middle of the day and afternoon in late -May makes me wonder if this does stay up near 2000ft.

I could see it snowing at like 35-36F at 1000ft...but accums are a completely different story.

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I can't really see any massive red flags...at least for the upslope region above 1500 feet...and maybe even 1,000 feet. I mean ifthe deform/CCB craps the bed, maybe...but its hard to imagine it sucking there because they'll get so much assist from that moist NW BL flow.

 

Yeah exactly...and every model has a great look to the mid levels too. 

 

You lucky prick...lol. That should be an awesome chase..throw an extra memory card into the camera.

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I'm trying to decide a decision making time...I figure we should have an idea by 6-8am tomorrow as to how low this snow will get or at least how it's progressing.

The models make me think tomorrow afternoon and evening is the "go-time" so if I left at 8am I could be home by noon. I will say the middle of the day and afternoon in late -May makes me wonder if this does stay up near 2000ft.

I could see it snowing at like 35-36F at 1000ft...but accums are a completely different story.

Your family knows how passionate you are. Tell them this is a once in a lifetime event...you can see them next weekend. 

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I'm trying to decide a decision making time...I figure we should have an idea by 6-8am tomorrow as to how low this snow will get or at least how it's progressing.

The models make me think tomorrow afternoon and evening is the "go-time" so if I left at 8am I could be home by noon. I will say the middle of the day and afternoon in late -May makes me wonder if this does stay up near 2000ft.

I could see it snowing at like 35-36F at 1000ft...but accums are a completely different story.

 

 

They might start off like that, but I think they would get shellacked once the sun went down in the evening.

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I can't believe my good luck...like you mentioned earlier, maybe this is my 12/9/05 that you lucked into for a wedding too, lol. Hopefully it goes close to as modeled.

Usually there are a bunch of cons with really anomalous setups but there really aren't many here at all. Should work out fine. 1500+ should be golden with upside at lower elevs.

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ECMWF 3 hr snowfall maps from wunderground max out at 2" in a 3 hr period over the MT Mansfield,  not much terrain gets above 1" in 3hr period. So I can still see accumulating snow not working out below 3k feet.   But those in VT above 1K ft just expecting to see flakes mixing in may get what they hoped for.

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Yeah the Euro basically shows snow down to BTV too. It would be one thing if the models showed snow to 1500 feet barely and the thinking was that they were a bit too cold, so only 2500 feet and up would see accumulating snow, but they aren't showing that. They are showing snow poundng down below 1,000 feet...so even if they run a bit cold, its still a plasturing at 1500 feet. I'm not sure what the main thinking is because they didn't discuss the model data in the AFD or reasoning. I could still see this not being that big of deal below 2k...but I think the chance of that happening is probably less than it being a big deal. At the very least I think making folks aware of the possibility would be prudent.

 

The key thing thats probably getting underplayed at this point is the fact that there is a substancial upslope component to the low-level wind. Not only will dynamical cooling be working in our favor, but there will also be a substancial mesoscale lowering of the snow line due to adiabatic lift.

 

One of our new professors actually did a large portion of his PhD. research on the mesoscale snow line lowering associated with topography.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/jminder/research/minder_etal_snowline.pdf

 

When investigating mesoscale snow line controls in high topography, the key features that affect the snow line in the mountains are:

approximently

1.) Latent Cooling from melting precipitation

2.) Microphysical Melting Distance

3.) Adiabatic Cooling

 

The second bullet point is also very interesting... as the size and density of snowflakes can have a substancial impact on the melting layer where latent cooling takes place. For example in the paper above its stated that a 10mm snowflake descends around 100m further down before melting than a snowflake half that size. Riming and other factors that increase the density of snowflakes can also help increase this melting layer distance, which can effectively lower the snow level via a larger region of Latent Cooling. 

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The key thing thats probably getting underplayed at this point is the fact that there is a substancial upslope component to the low-level wind. Not only will dynamical cooling be working in our favor, but there will also be a substancial mesoscale lowering of the snow line due to adiabatic lift.

 

One of our new professors actually did a large portion of his PhD. research on the mesoscale snow line lowering associated with topography.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/jminder/research/minder_etal_snowline.pdf

 

When investigating mesoscale snow line controls in high topography, the key features that affect the snow line in the mountains are:

approximently

1.) Latent Cooling from melting precipitation

2.) Microphysical Melting Distance

3.) Adiabatic Cooling

 

The second bullet point is also very interesting... as the size and density of snowflakes can have a substancial impact on the melting layer where latent cooling takes place. For example in the paper above its stated that a 10mm snowflake descends around 100m further down before melting than a snowflake half that size. Riming and other factors that increase the density of snowflakes can also help increase this melting layer distance, which can effectively lower the snow level via a larger region of Latent Cooling. 

 

 

Yeah I love those types of studies...snow growth really can play a large factor in the latent cooling. One reason we love to see big omega in the SGZ during marginal situations...really helps lower that FRZ level.

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00z NAM has 925mb temps below 0C by 21z at ORH tomorrow afternoon...so a very good chance they get a period of snow or at least flakes mixed in before ending near dinner time or just after if it panned out as the NAM shows.

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