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Memorial Day Weekend Coastal/Snow


Damage In Tolland

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Whether this pans out into a monster snowstorm for above 1,000 feet or not, its pretty incredible we are discussing this on Memorial Day Weekend. I don't think I've model watched like this since early April.

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The Euro was so cold...I think it will be a non-issue in VT. GFS at 18z tried to wrap it a bit west, Even if it does try to wrap west, I dont think it would be until later tomorrow night...the huge crush job looks to be during the day tomorrow and evening.

 

Some of the 18z NAM soundings indicate all snow down to ~800 feet.... take for instance KRUT (784m) tomorrow at 00z. I agree that its strange so many NWS offices are just not acknowledging the potential.

 

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The Euro was so cold...I think it will be a non-issue in VT. GFS at 18z tried to wrap it a bit west, Even if it does try to wrap west, I dont think it would be until later tomorrow night...the huge crush job looks to be during the day tomorrow and evening.

 

Yeah no argument here...I'm just trying to think of a reason why they seem conservative. This really has the potential to cause serious issues for 1000-1500ft with the foliage out. I mean the euro looks absolutely classic at H7 basically up and down the whole state, but the nrn mtns get crushed. 

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Some of the 18z NAM soundings indicate all snow down to ~800 feet.... take for instance KRUT (784m) tomorrow at 00z. I agree that its strange so many NWS offices are just not acknowledging the potential.

 

 

 

 

Yeah the Euro basically shows snow down to BTV too. It would be one thing if the models showed snow to 1500 feet barely and the thinking was that they were a bit too cold, so only 2500 feet and up would see accumulating snow, but they aren't showing that. They are showing snow poundng down below 1,000 feet...so even if they run a bit cold, its still a plasturing at 1500 feet. I'm not sure what the main thinking is because they didn't discuss the model data in the AFD or reasoning. I could still see this not being that big of deal below 2k...but I think the chance of that happening is probably less than it being a big deal. At the very least I think making folks aware of the possibility would be prudent.

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Whether this pans out into a monster snowstorm for above 1,000 feet or not, its pretty incredible we are discussing this on Memorial Day Weekend. I don't think I've model watched like this since early April.

Yeah I haven't been this interested in anything weather since those mid/late March events...right after doing shirtless yard work at 45F :lol:

I'm still unsure what I'm doing tomorrow but even if I miss it, tracking snow is still one of my biggest passions. It doesn't matter if its early or late season and supposed to be hot and humid (none of thais we want seasons to perform as seasons stuff)...Snow anytime of the year will always trump any other weather event in terms of my personal enjoyment while tracking...even if I'm not experiencing it.

I remember staying up all night for the October 2011 storm even though it didn't impact me; the information available on the Internet these days makes it so you can pretty much cyber-experience any weather event, lol.

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Yeah no argument here...I'm just trying to think of a reason why they seem conservative. This really has the potential to cause serious issues for 1000-1500ft with the foliage out. I mean the euro looks absolutely classic at H7 basically up and down the whole state, but the nrn mtns get crushed. 

 

Yeah--suspect you can't quantify it, but I imagine spring foliage has greater ability to adhere to the tree than dead/dying October ones.

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Yeah--suspect you can't quantify it, but I imagine spring foliage has greater ability to adhere to the tree than dead/dying October ones.

 

 

They had to call in national guard during the May '77 storm...it was a disaster. The leaf out was pretty much in full tilt because 1977 was a warm spring...both leading up to that event and then after it. April and May  '77 were pretty torchy. Obviously the 9th and 10th weren;t though. :lol:

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Yeah no argument here...I'm just trying to think of a reason why they seem conservative. This really has the potential to cause serious issues for 1000-1500ft with the foliage out. I mean the euro looks absolutely classic at H7 basically up and down the whole state, but the nrn mtns get crushed.

What are the sneaky Scooter caution flags?
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Yeah the Euro basically shows snow down to BTV too. It would be one thing if the models showed snow to 1500 feet barely and the thinking was that they were a bit too cold, so only 2500 feet and up would see accumulating snow, but they aren't showing that. They are showing snow poundng down below 1,000 feet...so even if they run a bit cold, its still a plasturing at 1500 feet. I'm not sure what the main thinking is because they didn't discuss the model data in the AFD or reasoning. I could still see this not being that big of deal below 2k...but I think the chance of that happening is probably less than it being a big deal. At the very least I think making folks aware of the possibility would be prudent.

No offense to the AFD author there, but that's sort of how that person's AFDs often run...a little short without a whole ton of detail but a decent summary. I have the most respect for that office and also would not want to be in that forecast seat, so I can't talk at all. If the person working tonight is who I think it might be then we'll have a lot more info when we wake up.

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What are the sneaky Scooter caution flags?

 

Other than just making sure the band lines up over the Spine...not that much which is incredible to say for late May. 

 

I think the biggest flag is just making sure the banding lines up over the ideal areas...but as many have said...this practically crokes 1000'..lol. This looks incredible....really not much in the way of flags, at least IMHO.

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I'm still unsure what I'm doing tomorrow but even if I miss it, tracking snow is still one of my biggest passions. It doesn't matter if its early or late season and supposed to be hot and humid (none of thais we want seasons to perform as seasons stuff)...Snow anytime of the year will always trump any other weather event in terms of my personal enjoyment while tracking...even if I'm not experiencing it.

This, except I want winter to perform as winter.

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Other than just making sure the band lines up over the Spine...not that much which is incredible to say for late May. 

 

I think the biggest flag is just making sure the banding lines up over the ideal areas...but as many have said...this practically crokes 1000'..lol. This looks incredible....really not much in the way of flags, at least IMHO.

 

 

If this storm performs as modeled tomorrow, there is going to be snow down into BTV I think...at least flakes mixed in. We'll just have to track how well the BL is cooling vs models as we go into tonight and early tomorrow.

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I'm still unsure what I'm doing tomorrow but even if I miss it, tracking snow is still one of my biggest passions. It doesn't matter if its early or late season and supposed to be hot and humid (none of thais we want seasons to perform as seasons stuff)...Snow anytime of the year will always trump any other weather event in terms of my personal enjoyment while tracking...even if I'm not experiencing it.

 

 

 

+ 1,001 I love snow anytime of the year.

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Thanks Scott. When the big New England red taggers speak...

I would just love to see some flakes, just for the novelty

Fenway looks nice

Yep. Couple mangled flakes in these parts, or even around you, would be cool to see. And imagine if it were June 1 instead of late May. Not much of a difference, but somehow snow in June would be even more remarkable than on May 31st.

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If this storm performs as modeled tomorrow, there is going to be snow down into BTV I think...at least flakes mixed in. We'll just have to track how well the BL is cooling vs models as we go into tonight and early tomorrow.

 

I mean can you see really anything that stands out other than what we talked about? I will say on those 850-500 maps...the dryslot gets close, but it looks like it stays east of the spine. Combined with NW flow...tough to really see the mtns go to spitting mangles flakes. I think they should be fine.

 

 

There might be some very surprised people between 1-2k tomorrow aftn.

 

SPC WRF looks great too BTW.

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I mean can you see really anything that stands out other than what we talked about? I will say on those 850-500 maps...the dryslot gets close, but it looks like it stays east of the spine. Combined with NW flow...tough to really see the mtns go to spitting mangles flakes. I think they should be fine.

 

 

There might be some very surprised people between 1-2k tomorrow aftn.

 

SPC WRF looks great too BTW.

 

 

I can't really see any massive red flags...at least for the upslope region above 1500 feet...and maybe even 1,000 feet. I mean ifthe deform/CCB craps the bed, maybe...but its hard to imagine it sucking there because they'll get so much assist from that moist NW BL flow.

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Yeah. The WRF plots some snow at WaWa...lol

 

 

The Euro would be snow at WaWa for a time too...I think the summit will def get some flakage...not sure if the 1,000 foot areas will get it yet, but there's a realistic chance at a few wet flakes near the end...which is amazing enough on Memorial Day weekend.

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