Ginx snewx Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 2-4 with lollis to 6"?How pissed would Kev be if he missed a dangerous damaging snow at 1K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Huh, come back from my run and read the BTV's AFD .... I don't think they get it here. Something wrong. First of all, much of that 4pm was copied and pasted from earlier in the day. It doesn't speak enough to specific modeling details and is ... a bad job quite frankly. Oh well, maybe they'll get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 It's absolutely pouring in Boston atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Euro ensembles have a stripe of -5C 850s over VT tomorrow. That is really cold. Any chance we (above 1k) get a tickle of snow cover out of this? esp. n. orh/ nh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 I don't think I can remember temps this cold for a memorial weekend. Currently 52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Huh, come back from my run and read the BTV's AFD .... I don't think they get it here. Something wrong. First of all, much of that 4pm was copied and pasted from earlier in the day. It doesn't speak enough to specific modeling details and is ... a bad job quite frankly. Oh well, maybe they'll get lucky. Gray meanwhile has this to say: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GYX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...WITH THE COLD FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH THE COASTLINE AS OF 21Z. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE SHAPE OFF THE NEW ENG COASTLINE THEREAFTER...WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING NEAR CAPE COD THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL PICKING UP WELL ON CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS MODEL DEPICTS MORE AREAS OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AFTER A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATER THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR COLD AIR RUSHING INTO THE MTNS FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THIS STORM WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE MAY 26TH 1967 EVENT. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS AND TEMPS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER GUSTY FOR ANY HIKERS OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. PREV DISC... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MAINE AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IN MID COAST AND CENTRAL MAINE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP EDGES IN FROM THE WEST. WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR LOW PRESSURE TO GET SPUN UP OVERNIGHT SO THIS BREAK MAY TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MAINE FOR THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE 850 OVER-RUNNING GETS GOING IN EARNEST ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. 12Z MODELS TRENDING FARTHER WEST WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP AND COMING INTO LINE WITH LAST NIGHT 00Z ECMWF. 24 HOUR QPF FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND CONNECTICUT VALLEY DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES THROUGH 00Z SUN. WITH THIS IN MIND...DOESN`T APPEAR FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE CONSIDERING THE BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS AFTERNOON AND LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT ITSELF...SO HOLDING OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS POINT IN TIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND MEANDERS AROUND THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME WET SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AT SOME POINT ON SATURDAY IN FAR WESTERN ZONES BUT ENOUGH WARM AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM THAT THIS WOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF. BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE IN THE GREENS OF VERMONT AND THE DACKS. WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS AND SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Unless the mid levels completely crap the bed, hard to see how this doesn't crush above 2000-2500'. Even down to 1000-1500' there should be snow and perhaps a decent amount in upslope favored areas. The areas near and below 1500' clearly need the mid levels to be perfect so I understand some uncertainty there.....but man this looks darn nice for the nrn mtns above2k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Odd observation, many people complaining about the "sudden" change in forecasts for the weekend. It's odd to me as we knew very early that this was evolving into a cold noreaster. Seems the GP was hearing different all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 BTV's mountain forecast looks reasonable though with temps getting down to 27F on Mansfield at the coldest....with 7-15" of snow in the grid point forecast. This is just the Saturday night forecast, but a winner with wind chills in the single digits in wind-blown snow. THE FORECAST FOR MOUNT MANSFIELD, VERMONT AT 4,393 FT: LAST UPDATED AT 325 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013 .SATURDAY NIGHT...SUMMIT OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. SNOW. LOW AROUND 27. NORTH WINDS 60 TO 70 MPH...DECREASING TO 45 TO 60 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 6 ABOVE. Tonight: Rain before 2am, then rain and snow. Low around 29. Windy, with a north wind 31 to 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Saturday: Snow before 3pm, then rain and snow. High near 33. Very windy, with a north wind 40 to 45 mph increasing to 50 to 55 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Saturday Night: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 10pm. Low around 32. Very windy, with a north wind 50 to 55 mph decreasing to 41 to 46 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 looks like a drive to weenie ridge is in order tmrw evening. I would put the odds of flakes imby at somewhere around 10% , which may be a little optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 I don't think I can remember temps this cold for a memorial weekend. Currently 52 2003 was pretty crappy. Other chilly Memorial Day weekends include 1877, 1883, 1884, 1887, 1888, 1889, 1890, 1896, 1901, 1907, 1917, 1925, and 1930. Some of those featured at least one day with highs stuck in the 40s. As one might guess many of those weekends had lots of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 48 in central park on May 24th @ 7 PM, suddenly I don't have such a hard time believing that some high elevation areas get smoked tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 -3 c at 850 on the spine of the Berkshires / greens mountains , decreasing to -4 c at hours 27,30. Interestingly at the same time intervals the GFS is closer to -2 c. Regardless possibly the models could be under-doing the amount of orographic cooling that occurs on the west slope? I wouldn't be surprised if the northern Berkshires above 2000' see 3"-6" if everything breaks right ( or the modeled solutions come to fruition ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Posted on Facebook...but here's the Jay Peak COOP snow depth forecast (JAYV) at 1800ft: https://m.facebook.com/#!/FamousInternetSkiers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 How pissed would Kev be if he missed a dangerous damaging snow at 1K He would probably jump off a Cape Cod cliff lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Odd observation, many people complaining about the "sudden" change in forecasts for the weekend. It's odd to me as we knew very early that this was evolving into a cold noreaster. Seems the GP was hearing different all week. who has complained? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 There isn't any guidance right now that doesn't crush above 1,500 feet (and probably 1,000 feet) in BTV CWA...they must think guidance is overdoing the boundary layer cold. they clearly arent snow weenies, and they are prolly leaning on climo. All models overdoing snow? Upslope flow enhancing cooling more than models even show, seems...conservative. Esp w this airmass demonstrating flakes in c ny today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 How pissed would Kev be if he missed a dangerous damaging snow at 1K I hope Tolland gets a subdivision smashing 6-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 who has complained? I've actually heard it from a few folks in the general public too. It seemed the prevailing thought was cool but dry, not a cold/windy nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Well I'm leaving here in a bit for the drive north. Should be interesting tomorrow morning. I'm def more bullish than the NWS on solid snow..at least above abotu 1500 feet. But there's definitely some potential lower than that if the CCb/deformation cranks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 who has complained? A quarter of the public that i work with. Considering outdoor activities and tv mets havin mid 60s 2 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 folks in the general public too. gotcha. Well good luck up there man, not that you need it. Whatever falls, falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 I don't pay attention to them...they're out for commerce, big business, selling plane tickets and hotels, etc... It was going to be cool/cold and miserable. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 I hope Tolland gets a subdivision smashing 6-12" Wow, it's nice having people actually rooting for Tolland to get snow for once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Wow, it's nice having people actually rooting for Tolland to get snow! Only above 980' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Only above 980' There goes his flawless lawn lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Into the 40's here now with the temp at 49F and falling rather slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 gotcha. Well good luck up there man, not that you need it. Whatever falls, falls. I'm in North Woodstock CT right now...about to jump off a cliff. Will see how it evolves tomorrow morning and may have to head back north. 51F at 800ft in NE CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Well I'm leaving here in a bit for the drive north. Should be interesting tomorrow morning. I'm def more bullish than the NWS on solid snow..at least above abotu 1500 feet. But there's definitely some potential lower than that if the CCb/deformation cranks. LOL I just got down here. Time to switch places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 I'm in North Woodstock CT right now...about to jump off a cliff. Will see how it evolves tomorrow morning and may have to head back north. 51F at 800ft in NE CT. I have 50º at about 700', but I won't swear to my thermometer's accuracy. Gonna go outside and yell "FREAK". Tell me if you hear me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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