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Memorial Day Weekend Coastal/Snow


Damage In Tolland

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Huh, come back from my run and read the BTV's AFD .... I don't think they get it here.   Something wrong. First of all, much of that 4pm was copied and pasted from earlier in the day.  It doesn't speak enough to specific modeling details and is ... a bad job quite frankly.

 

Oh well, maybe they'll get lucky.   

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Huh, come back from my run and read the BTV's AFD .... I don't think they get it here.   Something wrong. First of all, much of that 4pm was copied and pasted from earlier in the day.  It doesn't speak enough to specific modeling details and is ... a bad job quite frankly.

 

Oh well, maybe they'll get lucky.   

Gray meanwhile has this to say:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GYX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

UPDATE...

HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...WITH THE COLD

FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH THE COASTLINE AS OF 21Z. LOW PRESSURE WILL

CONTINUE TO TAKE SHAPE OFF THE NEW ENG COASTLINE THEREAFTER...WITH

CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING NEAR CAPE COD THIS EVENING.

LATEST HRRR MODEL PICKING UP WELL ON CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS CROSSING

THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS MODEL DEPICTS MORE AREAS OF

RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AFTER A BREAK IN THE

ACTION LATER THIS EVENING.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR COLD AIR RUSHING INTO THE MTNS FROM

CANADA OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE

HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THIS STORM WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE MAY

26TH 1967 EVENT.

HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS AND TEMPS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL

BECOME RATHER GUSTY FOR ANY HIKERS OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTH OVER

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH SOME SNOW ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.

PREV DISC...

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE

AND NORTHWEST MAINE AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO

THE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL STALL

OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE

RAINFALL IN MID COAST AND CENTRAL MAINE DURING THE REMAINDER OF

THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE

ACTION ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON

BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP EDGES IN FROM THE WEST. WILL TAKE SOME

TIME FOR LOW PRESSURE TO GET SPUN UP OVERNIGHT SO THIS BREAK MAY

TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MAINE FOR THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE

850 OVER-RUNNING GETS GOING IN EARNEST ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AFTER

MIDNIGHT.

12Z MODELS TRENDING FARTHER WEST WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP AND

COMING INTO LINE WITH LAST NIGHT 00Z ECMWF. 24 HOUR QPF FOR THE

MOUNTAINS AND CONNECTICUT VALLEY DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH TO 1.5

INCHES THROUGH 00Z SUN. WITH THIS IN MIND...DOESN`T APPEAR

FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE CONSIDERING THE BREAK IN THE ACTION

THIS AFTERNOON AND LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT ITSELF...SO HOLDING

OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW

BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND MEANDERS AROUND THE

GULF OF MAINE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME WET SNOW OVER

THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AT SOME POINT ON SATURDAY IN FAR WESTERN ZONES BUT

ENOUGH WARM AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM THAT THIS WOULD BE FAIRLY

BRIEF. BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE IN THE GREENS OF VERMONT

AND THE DACKS. WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH TEMPS HOLDING

IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS AND SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT.

 

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Unless the mid levels completely crap the bed, hard to see how this doesn't crush above 2000-2500'. Even down to 1000-1500' there should be snow and perhaps a decent amount in upslope favored areas. The areas near and below 1500' clearly need the mid levels to be perfect so I understand some uncertainty there.....but man this looks darn nice for the nrn mtns above2k.

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BTV's mountain forecast looks reasonable though with temps getting down to 27F on Mansfield at the coldest....with 7-15" of snow in the grid point forecast.

This is just the Saturday night forecast, but a winner with wind chills in the single digits in wind-blown snow.

THE FORECAST FOR MOUNT MANSFIELD, VERMONT AT 4,393 FT:

LAST UPDATED AT 325 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SUMMIT OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. SNOW. LOW AROUND 27.

NORTH WINDS 60 TO 70 MPH...DECREASING TO 45 TO 60 MPH AFTER

MIDNIGHT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 6 ABOVE.

Tonight: Rain before 2am, then rain and snow. Low around 29. Windy, with a north wind 31 to 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Saturday: Snow before 3pm, then rain and snow. High near 33. Very windy, with a north wind 40 to 45 mph increasing to 50 to 55 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Saturday Night: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 10pm. Low around 32. Very windy, with a north wind 50 to 55 mph decreasing to 41 to 46 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

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I don't think I can remember temps this cold for a memorial weekend. Currently 52

2003 was pretty crappy. Other chilly Memorial Day weekends include 1877, 1883, 1884, 1887, 1888, 1889, 1890, 1896, 1901, 1907, 1917, 1925, and 1930. Some of those featured at least one day with highs stuck in the 40s. As one might guess many of those weekends had lots of rain.

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-3 c at 850 on the spine of the Berkshires / greens mountains , decreasing to -4 c  at hours 27,30. Interestingly at the same time intervals the GFS is closer to -2 c. Regardless possibly the models could be under-doing the amount of orographic cooling that occurs on the west slope? I wouldn't be surprised if the northern Berkshires above 2000' see 3"-6" if everything breaks right ( or the modeled solutions come to fruition )

post-144-0-50749800-1369435800_thumb.png

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Odd observation, many people complaining about the "sudden" change in forecasts for the weekend. It's odd to me as we knew very early that this was evolving into a cold noreaster. Seems the GP was hearing different all week.

who has complained?

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There isn't any guidance right now that doesn't crush above 1,500 feet (and probably 1,000 feet) in BTV CWA...they must think guidance is overdoing the boundary layer cold.

they clearly arent snow weenies, and they are prolly leaning on climo. All models overdoing snow? Upslope flow enhancing cooling more than models even show, seems...conservative. Esp w this airmass demonstrating flakes in c ny today
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Well I'm leaving here in a bit for the drive north. Should be interesting tomorrow morning. I'm def more bullish than the NWS on solid snow..at least above abotu 1500 feet. But there's definitely some potential lower than that if the CCb/deformation cranks.

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Well I'm leaving here in a bit for the drive north. Should be interesting tomorrow morning. I'm def more bullish than the NWS on solid snow..at least above abotu 1500 feet. But there's definitely some potential lower than that if the CCb/deformation cranks.

LOL I just got down here. Time to switch places.

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I'm in North Woodstock CT right now...about to jump off a cliff. Will see how it evolves tomorrow morning and may have to head back north.

51F at 800ft in NE CT.

I have 50º at about 700', but I won't swear to my thermometer's accuracy. Gonna go outside and yell "FREAK". Tell me if you hear me.

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