Memorial Day Weekend Coastal/Snow

[Sugarloaf1989]

killington base is what , 2k?

 

2,540' - that's the elevation of the Superstar webcam.

[N. OF PIKE]

Yeah...1,500ft is still pretty high up, even for VT towns. The Northeast Kingdom is probably the best spot for highest inhabited towns. It may be contrary to belief, but southern VT actually has some of the higher "towns."

There are of course people that live above 1,500ft all over the place but its hit or miss.

ya i realize how that area near and around jamaica vt is high, also the northern extent of sw nh area is pretty high 1800-2200' as well.

What was the track of that late april snow storm a few years ago?

[powderfreak]

Correct me if I'm wrong- but also there aren't that many traveled roads above 1500 feet? That's one of their concerns too?

 

Correct... the NEK has more of those roads, but in the Spine area its really only the Bolton Access Road, RT 108/Mountain Road from Stowe Mountain Resort up through the Notch (max of 2,200ft), and Appalachian Gap down near MRG, which goes over the pass at 2,400ft.

 

Even the State Parks like Underhill State Park and Camels Hump State Park roads end at around 1,500ft.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Yeah...1,500ft is still pretty high up, even for VT towns.  The Northeast Kingdom is probably the best spot for highest inhabited towns.  It may be contrary to belief, but southern VT actually has some of the higher "towns." 

 

There are of course people that live above 1,500ft all over the place but its hit or miss. 

 

 

There's alot of population in Northwestern Connecticut above 1,500' as well.

[joey2002]

There's alot of population in Northwestern Connecticut above 1,500' as well.

 

Bear Mountain is around 2,300 ft or something... highest point in CT I think.

[dryslot]

GYX gives a little shout out............

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOWBECOMES TRAPPED UNDER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND MEANDERS AROUND THEGULF OF MAINE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME WET SNOW OVERTHE HIGHEST TERRAIN AT SOME POINT ON SATURDAY IN FAR WESTERN ZONES BUTENOUGH WARM AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM THAT THIS WOULD BE FAIRLYBRIEF. BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE IN THE GREENS OF VERMONTAND THE DACKS. WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH TEMPS HOLDINGIN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS AND SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT.

[powderfreak]

I also noticed the Flood Watches disappeared but they'll be back I assume... VT has gotten hammered with rain this week. 

 

The Burlington area had schools closed today due to flooding and road washouts where some spots have gotten up to 6" of rainfall recently.

 

The spots on the north and west flank of Mansfield have gotten destroyed... like Underhill (6") and Jeffersonville (almost 7") so far and those are NW flow enhanced areas that could get another 2-3" of rainfall or liquid equiv over the next couple days.

 

Lots of water.

APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE ANDCOCORAHS OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS.THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE ATWEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL********************LOCATION          STORM TOTAL   COMMENTS                      RAINFALL                     /INCHES/VERMONT...ADDISON COUNTY...   FERRISBURG            3.44   BREAD LOAF            3.10   STARKSBORO            2.79...CALEDONIA COUNTY...   SUTTON                3.51   WALDEN                2.87   ST JOHNSBURY          2.14...CHITTENDEN COUNTY...   HINESBURG             6.59   UNDERHILL             6.16   NASHVILLE             5.49   ESSEX JUNCTION        5.27   BURLINGTON            5.06   NWS OFFICE   SOUTH BURLINGTON      4.43   WESTFORD              4.31   COLCHESTER            4.19   BOLTON                3.74...ESSEX COUNTY...   ISLAND POND           3.59   AVERILL               3.16...FRANKLIN COUNTY...   ST ALBANS             3.34   FAIRFAX               3.03...GRAND ISLE COUNTY...   SOUTH HERO            2.76...LAMOILLE COUNTY...   JEFFERSONVILLE        6.79   HYDE PARK             4.59   STOWE                 3.67...ORANGE COUNTY...   RANDOLPH              2.93   CORINTH               2.58...ORLEANS COUNTY...   BARTON                5.46   DERBY CENTER          3.12   NEWPORT               3.02   NORTH TROY            2.55...RUTLAND COUNTY...   RUTLAND               2.84   MOUNT HOLLY           2.07...WASHINGTON COUNTY...   WATERBURY             3.44   WORCESTER             3.00   EAST CALAIS           2.75   MONTPELIER            2.38...WINDSOR COUNTY...   LUDLOW                2.54   SPRINGFIELD           2.04

[joey2002]

So historically speaking, when is the last time these areas have recorded snow this late in May? 

[wxeyeNH]

Problem with this storm is the power issue.  Many homes in my area of Central NH are in the 1000-1700 foot zone.  Even 3" of glop falling at night on all the green foliage is going to cause long term power outages at elevations. For that reason some type of advisory/watch should be issued for areas over 1000 feet.

[Arnold214]

You might have missed it earlier in this thread, but I am going to be up in BTV tonight through Sunday...by pure stroke of good fortune I am attending a wedding up there this weekend. I'll be chasing for sure and taking pics.

just like my situation on 12/9/05 when i went to a wedding in Needham.

[joey2002]

Problem with this storm is the power issue.  Many homes in my area of Central NH are in the 1000-1700 foot zone.  Even 3" of glop falling at night on all the green foliage is going to cause long term power outages at elevations. For that reason some type of advisory/watch should be issued for areas over 1000 feet.

 

Yeah, in October 2011 all it took was 3" of cement before limbs started crashing left and right. 

[ORH_wxman]

 

Problem with this storm is the power issue.  Many homes in my area of Central NH are in the 1000-1700 foot zone.  Even 3" of glop falling at night on all the green foliage is going to cause long term power outages at elevations. For that reason some type of advisory/watch should be issued for areas over 1000 feet.

 

Yeah that is a good point...as we saw in the October 2011 storm, it doesn't take much to start snapping limbs all over the place.

[CoastalWx]

Euro pretty much would be snow to sea level in VT.....if they had sea level.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Bear Mountain is around 2,300 ft or something... highest point in CT I think.

 

 

Bear Mtn is the highest mountain inside of Connecticut, but Mt Frissell is the actual highpoint in Connecticut at 2,379', but it stradles the CT/MA line and the highpoint of Mt Frissell in Connecticut is actually lower than the actual summit of Mt Frissell which is in Massachusetts. Confusing isn't it?

 

NWS forecast for Wachusett:

 

Saturday Night Rain and snow showers likely, becoming all rain after 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 37. North wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=42.4893146571508&lon=-71.88697814941406

[powderfreak]

So historically speaking, when is the last time these areas have recorded snow this late in May? 

 

It is hard to say depending on elevation... top of Mansfield has seen snow in June and August at the Co-op.  But probably nothing of this magnitude.  The historical nature will really be if snow gets down to the more inhabited areas around 1,000ft and especially if it starts hitting like 600-700ft.

 

Euro pretty much would be snow to sea level in VT.....if they had sea level.

 

Lowest your going to find is like 190ft on the shores of Lake Champlain I think.  Most of the Champlain Valley is 200-500ft range, with little hills/ridges that can get up to near 1,000ft.

[powderfreak]

As one might expect with this couplet of moisture, mid-level deformation, and low level orographics, the BTV WRF just can't even process the QPF... it just wants to max out any available water over Mansfield and Jay Peak.  Just tremendous forcing over the mountains.

 

[powderfreak]

Probably never going to see this print out again... for Montpelier/MPV in late May.

 

[CT Rain]

There's alot of population in Northwestern Connecticut above 1,500' as well.

 

I actually don't think there's more than 100 people above 1500' in NW CT.

[ORH_wxman]

18z NAM is a comical crush job in N VT. I think even down to about 500 feet sees good snow as the freezing line gets down to 950mb.

[powderfreak]

Here's a link to the Mansfield regional mesonet page on BTV's website... good one to bookmark for this event. 

 

Froude number is right around 1.0 which is the critical value and leads to the heaviest precipitation being deposited right along the barrier.  We'll see if that lowers as the event unfolds and the flow may become a little blocked, resulting in heavier precipitation on the western slopes.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/mountain/profile/

[CT Rain]

18z NAM is a comical crush job in N VT. I think even down to about 500 feet sees good snow as the freezing line gets down to 950mb.

 

We actually may break low maxes tomorrow. 

 

I'm down to 55/50 here. I thought we'd struggle to the 40s by midnight but maybe not. 

[powderfreak]

18z NAM is a comical crush job in N VT. I think even down to about 500 feet sees good snow as the freezing line gets down to 950mb.

 

-3C to -5C at 850 during the heaviest precip.  Yikes.  Wind-blown powder with temps in the 20s at the summits?

[Brian5671]

We actually may break low maxes tomorrow. 

 

I'm down to 55/50 here. I thought we'd struggle to the 40s by midnight but maybe not. 

52 now down here...with 8 hrs to go til midnight, most should be in the 40's....especially once the rain moves in...IMO

[CT Rain]

-3C to -5C at 850 during the heaviest precip.  Yikes.  Wind-blown powder with temps in the 20s at the summits?

 

For heavy precip that's about the threshold I like to use for valley locations for a very early or very late winter storm. -3 to -5c at 850 would argue for accumulating snow at low elevations. 

[Sugarloaf1989]

I actually don't think there's more than 100 people above 1500' in NW CT.

 

 

There's alot more than 100 people living at that elevation. There's plenty of housing on Mt Washington Road/Riga Road and more close to the highpoint in NW Connecticut.

[powderfreak]

Man BTV didn't bite at all... non-event as far as snow is concerned except at the summit levels.

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION
AND BECOMES GRADUALLY NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER TIME. AS THIS
OCCURS...UPPER ENERGY WILL CAPTURE A DEVELOPING SFC LOW RIDING
NORTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND DRIVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. INCREASING
OMEGA/FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING ALONG WITH FAVORABLE LOW TRACK ALL
ARGUE FOR CONTINUED CATEGORICAL POPS (90-100%) THROUGH THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. AFTER A
PERIOD OF EARLY EVENING SHOWERS...THE FAR WEST...NAMELY THE SLV
WILL TREND DRIER. LOWS QUITE CHILLY UNDER CONTINUED NORTHERLY
BREEZES...GENERALLY 35 TO 45 WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE ABOVE 3000 FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEP
UPPER CLOSED H5 TROUGH AND CAPTURED/OCCLUDING SFC LOW NEAR THE
GULF OF MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR AREA WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD.
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
VERMONT COUNTIES WHERE WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY. THIS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN OUR RECENT
BOUT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES
(SEE HYDRO DISC BELOW).

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CHILLY UNDER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 40S FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
EASTWARD...THOUGH MILDER ACROSS THE SLV WHERE LACK OF DYNAMICAL
COOLING AFFECTS FROM PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW READINGS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...35 TO 45 WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AT THE
SUMMIT LEVEL ABOVE 2500-3000 FEET.

BY SUNDAY...DEEP UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FILL AND BEGIN TO TRUDGE
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THUS SHOWERY WEATHER IN THE
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY END OVER TIME AS SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE. HIGHS A TAD MILDER FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S DACKS EAST...AND 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE SLV BY DAYS END
WHERE SOME SUN POSSIBLE LATE.

CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH
LOSES INFLUENCE AND IS REPLACED BY BROAD RIDGING IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES. SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY TREND PTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS LOWS BOTTOM OUT
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

[CT Rain]

In terms of summer holiday weekends this is as bad as it gets. Labor Day can always be worse with a major cane... but for Memorial Day weekend a day with 40s and rain and wind is pretty much worst case scenario. 

[Brian5671]

In terms of summer holiday weekends this is as bad as it gets. Labor Day can always be worse with a major cane... but for Memorial Day weekend a day with 40s and rain and wind is pretty much worst case scenario. 

Pretty bad.   2003 had an all day washout on Monday here (I remember it b/c we had move into our house the day prior) but it was alot warmer...at least we salvage Memorial Day itself for parades etc...

[joey2002]

We actually may break low maxes tomorrow. 

 

I'm down to 55/50 here. I thought we'd struggle to the 40s by midnight but maybe not. 

 

The low max at BDL is 48 tomorrow right?

[ORH_wxman]

I'm shocked at how conservative BTV is being...I thought they would at least hit the 1500 foot elevations harder. They're barely going for much at 3,000 feet?