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Memorial Day Weekend Coastal/Snow


Damage In Tolland

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I'm definitely driving to wachusett if it looks like they will get in on it. Would tomorrow night or Sunday morning be a better chance?

 

Tomorrow night I think would be better...Sunday morning might be too late as the best stuff will have lifted well north by then. However, if it hangs on until Sunday morning, it would be more likely to accumulate since the colder air works in more efficiently.

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Yeah we've referenced that event many times...this would be a larger event than that one. I don't think that one got much north of Killington for big snows. It snowed 6"+ in the Monadnocks too and N ORH county.

This storm system is a much bigger entity and really impressive. I'm expecting to see 20"+ totals in N VT if the current guidance is close to reality.

 

 

Thank you for the reply, IDK that storm was so powerful and with such a southerly snowfall component.

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 If ORH records any snow at all on May 26th (after midnight Saturday night), it will tie for the latest on record for snow recorded at ORH. If they get any measurable, it would beat the latest on record which is currently 5/18/02. I'm doubting measurable but wouldn't be surprised to see flakes down to ORH..and heck maybe even down into the NE CT highlands.

 

lol...if things hold I plan on being at 1250' in Union and watching my windshield very carefully.  I just wish it could make it down to my level but I'm realistic.  There's always June.  :D

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It will be interesting to see how BTV plays it this afternoon. I would probably put winter storm watches up for at least 1,500 feet...perhaps 1,000 feet.

They were quite conservative early this morning basically saying not much of anything below 2500 feet...but guidance would certainly beg to differ on these 12z runs. (and even a lot of the 00z runs)

But the natural reaction is definitely to stay conservative given how anomalous the system is. The initial thinking is that models will back off on the cold/snow potential. But they have actually been doing the opposite and increasing the potential over the past 24 hours which tells me that we're probably dealing with something pretty incredible here.

That said, there's still a lot of uncertainty in how much snow falls below 1500 feet in my mind. This could be a mainly mountaintop event still...or I could see it snowing right down to 500 feet or lower. I certainly don't envy the forecasters for BTV on this one. It has large bust potential.

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Someone has to chase this , heck w upslope and dynamical cooling i think snow tonite in n vt is likely aoa 2k midnite on

 

You might have missed it earlier in this thread, but I am going to be up in BTV tonight through Sunday...by pure stroke of good fortune I am attending a wedding up there this weekend. I'll be chasing for sure and taking pics.

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I'm just not sure they would issue watches for 1500ft....I've seen them go with a winter weather advisory for high elevation roads above 1500ft even while forecasting warning criteria snows, if that makes sense. Like an Advisory for 6-12" above 1500ft.

What about 1,000 feet?

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What about 1,000 feet?

 

Yeah I've seen watches/warnings for 1,000ft and higher.  That's how April 2010 started out.

 

I still think they are gun-shy even at 1,500ft because the impacts are still relatively low... though there are folks that live above that level, and mountain passes over the gaps.  But I still think they seem to stray away from the "Warning" wording until it gets down to 1,000ft or so.

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You might have missed it earlier in this thread, but I am going to be up in BTV tonight through Sunday...by pure stroke of good fortune I am attending a wedding up there this weekend. I'll be chasing for sure and taking pics.

I'll be as deep as I can get. Pics will happen. I'm sure.

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It will be interesting to see how BTV plays it this afternoon. I would probably put winter storm watches up for at least 1,500 feet...perhaps 1,000 feet, but many more peeps live between 1k and 1.5 k

They were quite conservative early this morning basically saying not much of anything below 2500 feet...but guidance would certainly beg to differ on these 12z runs. (and even a lot of the 00z runs)

But the natural reaction is definitely to stay conservative given how anomalous the system is. The initial thinking is that models will back off on the cold/snow potential. But they have actually been doing the opposite and increasing the potential over the past 24 hours which tells me that we're probably dealing with something pretty incredible here.

That said, there's still a lot of uncertainty in how much snow falls below 1500 feet in my mind. This could be a mainly mountaintop event still...or I could see it snowing right down to 500 feet or lower. I certainly don't envy the forecasters for BTV on this one. It has large bust potential.

Is it me or do we see forecasters who (in anomalous events) weigh climo greater than consistency of our best models (this close in) usually bust bad. I mean its snowing in parts of central nys at 1500'. Theres plenty of towns aoa 1500 in vt' that should get a crushing
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lol...if things hold I plan on being at 1250' in Union and watching my windshield very carefully.  I just wish it could make it down to my level but I'm realistic.  There's always June.  :D

 

Awesome!  I always wonder what Union is seeing during elevation events, but sadly it seems like nobody lives there, lol. 

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I'm just not sure they would issue watches for 1500ft....I've seen them go with a winter weather advisory for high elevation roads above 1500ft even while forecasting warning criteria snows, if that makes sense. Like an Advisory for 6-12" above 1500ft.

I suspect we'll get the winter weather advisory- or whatever the "purple" graphic is. It will extend over the northern portions and then down the spine to 1500 or so feet. BTV has been so conservative but at this point it is warranted. Enough people will say "oh it's just rain, I'll go for a hike." Then end up post-holeing through 2.5 feet of snow atop camels hump, calling for a rescue.

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Is it me or do we see forecasters who (in anomalous events) weigh climo greater than consistency of our best models (this close in) usually bust bad. I mean its snowing in parts of central nys at 1500'. Theres plenty of towns aoa 1500 in vt' that should get a crushing

 

I think sometimes that happens. We saw it in the October 2011 event with a lot of the OCMs...basically forecasting advisory amounts despite the models screaming that we were going to get buried. Though I remember the NWS did very well in that...same with Ryan down in CT...he was one of the few OCMs that hit that storm hard.

We'll see how NWS plays it during their afternoon pakcage. I certainly don't envy them as it is not an easy forecast. I would be tempted to go winter storm watch for 1,000 feet, but I'm not sure there's really enough there yet for that. I don't think BTV will go that route. They'll probably hit the accumulations a lot harder though for 1,500+ feet.

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Is it me or do we see forecasters who (in anomalous events) weigh climo greater than consistency of our best models (this close in) usually bust bad. I mean its snowing in parts of central nys at 1500'. Theres plenty of towns aoa 1500 in vt' that should get a crushing

 

Yeah...1,500ft is still pretty high up, even for VT towns.  The Northeast Kingdom is probably the best spot for highest inhabited towns.  It may be contrary to belief, but southern VT actually has some of the higher "towns." 

 

There are of course people that live above 1,500ft all over the place but its hit or miss. 

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I suspect we'll get the winter weather advisory- or whatever the "purple" graphic is. It will extend over the northern portions and then down the spine to 1500 or so feet. BTV has been so conservative but at this point it is warranted. Enough people will say "oh it's just rain, I'll go for a hike." Then end up post-holeing through 2.5 feet of snow atop camels hump, calling for a rescue.

 

I think the saving grace is people won't be hiking in this dude... not at rainfall that's coming in near 1/2" every 6 hours.  Pretty much averaging 0.1"/hr in the bucket doesn't bring a lot of folks outdoors.

 

Yeah my guess is the "purple graphic" as well....that's usually their office way of dealing with elevation snow (no matter how much actual snow) that has less impact on most of the population that lives below the snow line.  Its a good way of saying "hey, heads up it will be snowing in the mountains, but don't rush to the store because it won't effect most of you."

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Yeah...1,500ft is still pretty high up, even for VT towns.  The Northeast Kingdom is probably the best spot for highest inhabited towns.  It may be contrary to belief, but southern VT actually has some of the higher "towns." 

 

There are of course people that live above 1,500ft all over the place but its hit or miss. 

Correct me if I'm wrong- but also there aren't that many traveled roads above 1500 feet? That's one of their concerns too?

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I think sometimes that happens. We saw it in the October 2011 event with a lot of the OCMs...basically forecasting advisory amounts despite the models screaming that we were going to get buried. Though I remember the NWS did very well in that...same with Ryan down in CT...he was one of the few OCMs that hit that storm hard.

 

Yeah, Ryan nailed the Oct 2011 snowstorm better than anyone locally, though CL&P disagreed, lol.

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