Memorial Day Weekend Coastal/Snow

[wxmanmitch]

Its funny you mention this because I've mentioned that event several times over the past two days. 

 

It has the same mid-level deformation coupled with upslope NW flow which is very favorable for getting snow levels lower than expected.  That event started out as only being above 2,000ft and upslope cooling quickly brought snow to the valley floors.  The models won't catch that extra cooling.

 

This basically sums it up and in the winter is certainly what produce our largest snowstorms...storms like Valentines Day 07 when the fronto-band curled over us and NW-winds maximized that precipitation production in the lower levels.  Its like seeder-feeder with mid-level processes happening over pretty significant low-level processes, and we know that low level upslope can be significant on its own even without deeper mechanics in play overhead.

 

BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF BACKSIDE

DEFORMATION BAND OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP

LAYER OMEGA FROM 18Z TODAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY. THIS BAND OF FAVORABLE

LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...WHICH

WL PRODUCE A LONG DURATION PRECIP EVENT. THE FGEN FORCING AND

DEFORMATION ZNS NW OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT

YOU SEE IN A WINTER TIME COASTAL...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE BACKSIDE

UPSLOPE PARAMETERS.

 

Yup, that's how upslope normally works in synoptic scale storms around here. Typically the low level winds in synoptic events have more of an easterly component, which is why the east slope typically does better than the west slope. In many cases, by the time the winds go NW, the mid-level forcing has moved out and the west slope is just left with the lower level stuff, which can be fine if there's ample low-level moisture and sufficient cross barrier flow, especially up your way. Down here, it's harder to get a significant snow on NW flow upslope alone, but it can happen, especially if there's good mid-level forcing and/or low level moisture left over.

[ORH_wxman]

I don't recall hearing of a storm of this magnitude this late since the year with no summer.

 

 

May 25-26, 1967 had upwards of 6" in the Monadnocks...but it didn't have 20" amounts or anything in NNE since it wasn't a huge storm like this and didn't extend that far north. If spots managed over 15" below 2,000 feet, I would agree that its pretty unprecedented in the written record. I can't find another storm that late that produced that much snow in elevations that low....but it remains to be seen how this one pans out. Could still be a mostly mountain top event, but its certainly not trended that way at the moment.

 

12z NAM is the coldest run yet...though given its the NAM, grain of salt is needed.

[powderfreak]

Jesus the NAM is a crushing blow to the Greens. Wow.

[dryslot]

lol at the nam

[CoastalWx]

Powderfreak is going to jump off the ledge like that girl did in "Last of the Mohicans."

[ORH_wxman]

lol at the nam

Historic snow bomb for N VT...I think even places like MPV would get plastured pretty good on the NAM solution. It even gets pretty close to snow at BTV by tomorrow evening while its snowing down the Monads/Berkshires and N ORH hilltops. Just a sick solution. It would prob give 25-30" to the top of Mansfield and Jays Peak.

[powderfreak]

Powderfreak is going to jump off the ledge like that girl did in "Last of the Mohicans."

Seriously thinking about slashing my own tires so I can't leave within the next hour or so. Haven't seen family since last October before snow season...figure Memorial Day weekend is safe to leave but guess not lol.

[CoastalWx]

Seriously thinking about slashing my own tires so I can't leave within the next hour or so. Haven't seen family since last October before snow season...figure Memorial Day weekend is safe to leave but guess not lol.

I know....gotta do what you gotta do.

Wait until the euro comes out before setting your car on fire.

[ORH_wxman]

Seriously thinking about slashing my own tires so I can't leave within the next hour or so. Haven't seen family since last October before snow season...figure Memorial Day weekend is safe to leave but guess not lol.

 

 

Don't worry, I'll take care of the measurement at the base of Mansfield...I won't screw it up. Plenty of pics too for visual evidence.

[CoastalWx]

NAM would coat ORH lol. Jesus.

[Amped]

May 25-26, 1967 had upwards of 6" in the Monadnocks...but it didn't have 20" amounts or anything in NNE since it wasn't a huge storm like this and didn't extend that far north. If spots managed over 15" below 2,000 feet, I would agree that its pretty unprecedented in the written record. I can't find another storm that late that produced that much snow in elevations that low....but it remains to be seen how this one pans out. Could still be a mostly mountain top event, but its certainly not trended that way at the moment.

12z NAM is the coldest run yet...though given its the NAM, grain of salt is needed.

Yeah I saw snow in Colorado at 9k in late May 2007. Made for some nice photos and bright glare.

[weathafella]

KCON on the NAM is the coldest rain possible for late May. BOS with a bl temp of +3C 42 hour NAM.

[ORH_wxman]

NAM would coat ORH lol. Jesus.

 

 

It probably gives WaWa a couple inches, lol. I can't believe what I'm looking at is May 25-26th on the models. This would be pretty amazing (though not unprecedented) if it was April 25-26.

[radarman]

Seriously thinking about slashing my own tires so I can't leave within the next hour or so. Haven't seen family since last October before snow season...figure Memorial Day weekend is safe to leave but guess not lol.

 

I was in Oklahoma for the Octobomb and not sure the pain of that will ever fully subside. 

[dryslot]

Historic snow bomb for N VT...I think even places like MPV would get plastured pretty good on the NAM solution. It even gets pretty close to snow at BTV by tomorrow evening while its snowing down the Monads/Berkshires and N ORH hilltops. Just a sick solution. It would prob give 25-30" to the top of Mansfield and Jays Peak.

 

Your going to luck out and be in the right place at the right time, Will have to see what the rest of 12z models look like, I think its a given for snow in the high elevations over in VT, The question that remains is if it snows below 2,000'

[tamarack]

May 25-26, 1967 had upwards of 6" in the Monadnocks...but it didn't have 20" amounts or anything in NNE since it wasn't a huge storm like this and didn't extend that far north. If spots managed over 15" below 2,000 feet, I would agree that its pretty unprecedented in the written record. I can't find another storm that late that produced that much snow in elevations that low....but it remains to be seen how this one pans out. Could still be a mostly mountain top event, but its certainly not trended that way at the moment.

 

12z NAM is the coldest run yet...though given its the NAM, grain of salt is needed.

 

IIRC, the 1967 May storm was strong but not wet, and was strongest farther south.  In NNJ we had less than 1" precip, but winds powerful enough to topple oaks.

[Ginx snewx]

Nope. He realized yesterday it wasn't. Sunday is dry and cloudy out there. We lucked out

well either the Euro is dead wrong or it does not rain on the Cape

[powderfreak]

Don't worry, I'll take care of the measurement at the base of Mansfield...I won't screw it up. Plenty of pics too for visual evidence.

lol...I could give someone directions to the stake at 1500ft. The snow board set-up isn't there anymore (the porcupines like to eat it) but the depth stake should still be there like 50ft off the road, haha.

[Damage In Tolland]

well either the Euro is dead wrong or it does not rain on the Cape

The Cape is in the dry slot all weekend. Not great wx but better than home for shizzy. We're on 495 now

[powderfreak]

I was in Oklahoma for the Octobomb and not sure the pain of that will ever fully subside.

I'll be fine missing snow at 2000+...it still sucks but that's not unheard of on the northern spine during late season cold shots.

What will make me go nuts is if it somehow turns into something where my house near 800ft is getting aggregates in some super-band.

[moneypitmike]

It probably gives WaWa a couple inches, lol. I can't believe what I'm looking at is May 25-26th on the models. This would be pretty amazing (though not unprecedented) if it was April 25-26.

 

That would be awesome.  Just for the fun of it, I'd clear my driveway by driving the Deere over it a few times.  We could add that to the lawn thread, I think.

 

Meanwhile here's the advance of our beautiful Memorial Day weekend now. 

 

55.9/53 here at the Pit.

[Ginx snewx]

June 5th 1816

Meanwhile in New England, the weather of the 5th gave hardly a hint of what was to come. The passage of a low pressure trough brought some cloud and warm temperatures on southerly winds to the region, and daytime temperatures were seasonable. Williamstown reached 83 ^oF at noon, but shortly thereafter, a thunderstorm cooled the air to 69 ^oF The temperature remained warm, however, the shower; being an indication of the atmospheric instability characteristic of the warm sector of a low pressure system. At 2 pm, New Haven recorded 79 ^oF while Brunswick, Maine reported a 76 ^oF reading.

The North Star of Danville, Vermont reported:

[June 5] "was perhaps as warm and sultry a day as we have had since September--At night heat lightning was observed, but on Thursday morning the change of weather was so great that a fire was not only comfortable, but actually necessary. The wind during the whole day was as piercing and cold as it usually is the first of November and April. Snow and hail [ice pellets] began to fall about ten o'clock A.M., and the storm continued till evening, accompanied with a brisk wind, which rendered the habiliments of winter necessary for the comfort of those exposed to it....Probably no one living in the country ever witnessed such weather, especially of so long continuance."

By early morning of the 6th, the cold air mass arrived in Williamstown. The 7 am temperature stood at 45 ^oF, which was to be the high for the day. The meteorological register for the day contained the entry: "A cold rainy day from N.W.--not much rain & winds & very chilly."

At Elizabethtown, New York, the cold front passed before dawn and at 7:30 am a three-hour snow storm began. Throughout the day, snow showers were general, blown on icy westerly winds that froze the ground and destroyed most garden vegetables.

Benjamin Harwood, a Bennington, Vermont farmer, entered the following in his diary for the date:

"It had rained much during the night and this morning the wind blew exceedingly high from NE, raining copiously, chilling and sharp gusts. About 8 A.M. began to snow--continued more or less till past 2 P.M. The heads of all the mountains on every side were crowned with snow. The most gloomy and extraordinary weather ever seen."

Joshua Whitman at North Turner, Maine wrote of cold northwest winds with snow squalls. Adino Brackett in Lancaster, New Hampshire also reported snow, commenting, "This is beyond anything of the kind I have ever known." Snow was reported at Kingston, Ontario, Montreal and Quebec City, Quebec in Canada as well as Danville and Montpelier, Vermont; Warren and Bangor, Maine; Amherst, New Hampshire; Plymouth, Connecticut; Geneva and Oneida County, New York; and Waltham, Massachusetts.

Morning temperatures on the 6th at Salem, Massachusetts, Waltham, Massachusetts and Brunswick, Maine were 57 ^oF, 57 ^oF, and 44 ^oF, respectively, not abnormally cold for the season, but each was to be the local high for the day. By the morning of the 7th, the rapid and extreme drops in temperature froze bodies of standing water to one inch thickness in Danville and the thickness of a dollar coin in Montreal. Harwood described the morning as stiff with frost, with tree leaves blackened and snow remaining in the mountains until past noon.

Temperatures across the region on the 7th showed the extent of the cold air invasion. Middlebury College in Vermont recorded an even 32 ^oF for a low while the Waltham, Massachusetts temperature plummeted to 35 ^oF. The Reverend Alexander Sparks reported from Quebec low temperatures near the freezing mark (34 ^oF) at 8 am. Temperatures remained cold all day, rising to only 36 ^oF at 3 pm.

[MarkO]

Any idea what how low the snow accumulates in the western White's? I'm thinking maybe 1500-2000'? Or are the whites not getting in on the action being too close to the center?

 

I'm seriously considering taking the family up to Jay. I might hike up and make a few turns. I'm thinking  they may jackpot with 12-18" I can't believe we're even talking pow-pow day Memorial day weekend. I once skied Tucks on July 4th in '97, the year they got 96" inn May. We had planned on skiing that year Memorial Day weekend, but avalanche danger was high!

[ORH_wxman]

June 5th 1816

Meanwhile in New England, the weather of the 5th gave hardly a hint of what was to come. The passage of a low pressure trough brought some cloud and warm temperatures on southerly winds to the region, and daytime temperatures were seasonable. Williamstown reached 83 ^oF at noon, but shortly thereafter, a thunderstorm cooled the air to 69 ^oF The temperature remained warm, however, the shower; being an indication of the atmospheric instability characteristic of the warm sector of a low pressure system. At 2 pm, New Haven recorded 79 ^oF while Brunswick, Maine reported a 76 ^oF reading.

The North Star of Danville, Vermont reported:

[June 5] "was perhaps as warm and sultry a day as we have had since September--At night heat lightning was observed, but on Thursday morning the change of weather was so great that a fire was not only comfortable, but actually necessary. The wind during the whole day was as piercing and cold as it usually is the first of November and April. Snow and hail [ice pellets] began to fall about ten o'clock A.M., and the storm continued till evening, accompanied with a brisk wind, which rendered the habiliments of winter necessary for the comfort of those exposed to it....Probably no one living in the country ever witnessed such weather, especially of so long continuance."

By early morning of the 6th, the cold air mass arrived in Williamstown. The 7 am temperature stood at 45 ^oF, which was to be the high for the day. The meteorological register for the day contained the entry: "A cold rainy day from N.W.--not much rain & winds & very chilly."

At Elizabethtown, New York, the cold front passed before dawn and at 7:30 am a three-hour snow storm began. Throughout the day, snow showers were general, blown on icy westerly winds that froze the ground and destroyed most garden vegetables.

Benjamin Harwood, a Bennington, Vermont farmer, entered the following in his diary for the date:

"It had rained much during the night and this morning the wind blew exceedingly high from NE, raining copiously, chilling and sharp gusts. About 8 A.M. began to snow--continued more or less till past 2 P.M. The heads of all the mountains on every side were crowned with snow. The most gloomy and extraordinary weather ever seen."

Joshua Whitman at North Turner, Maine wrote of cold northwest winds with snow squalls. Adino Brackett in Lancaster, New Hampshire also reported snow, commenting, "This is beyond anything of the kind I have ever known." Snow was reported at Kingston, Ontario, Montreal and Quebec City, Quebec in Canada as well as Danville and Montpelier, Vermont; Warren and Bangor, Maine; Amherst, New Hampshire; Plymouth, Connecticut; Geneva and Oneida County, New York; and Waltham, Massachusetts.

Morning temperatures on the 6th at Salem, Massachusetts, Waltham, Massachusetts and Brunswick, Maine were 57 ^oF, 57 ^oF, and 44 ^oF, respectively, not abnormally cold for the season, but each was to be the local high for the day. By the morning of the 7th, the rapid and extreme drops in temperature froze bodies of standing water to one inch thickness in Danville and the thickness of a dollar coin in Montreal. Harwood described the morning as stiff with frost, with tree leaves blackened and snow remaining in the mountains until past noon.

Temperatures across the region on the 7th showed the extent of the cold air invasion. Middlebury College in Vermont recorded an even 32 ^oF for a low while the Waltham, Massachusetts temperature plummeted to 35 ^oF. The Reverend Alexander Sparks reported from Quebec low temperatures near the freezing mark (34 ^oF) at 8 am. Temperatures remained cold all day, rising to only 36 ^oF at 3 pm.

 

 

Snow up to thy knickers.

[Ginx snewx]

The Cape is in the dry slot all weekend. Not great wx but better than home for shizzy. We're on 495 now

where you getting that from?

[Ginx snewx]

Snow up to thy knickers.

That would go great with your sweater bow tie combo

[powderfreak]

Mount Mansfield already down to 35F.

SLK at 43F.

Cold air is coming.

[Damage In Tolland]

where you getting that from?

From Phil and Scooter

[Sugarloaf1989]

It looks like the +1.4F departure from normal for temperature this month at Bradley is going to go bye,bye this weekend.

[ORH_wxman]

Any idea what how low the snow accumulates in the western White's? I'm thinking maybe 1500-2000'? Or are the whites not getting in on the action being too close to the center?

 

I'm seriously considering taking the family up to Jay. I might hike up and make a few turns. I'm thinking  they may jackpot with 12-18" I can't believe we're even talking pow-pow day Memorial day weekend. I once skied Tucks on July 4th in '97, the year they got 96" inn May. We had planned on skiing that year Memorial Day weekend, but avalanche danger was high!

 

 

Whites will definitely get in on it, but it might take a little longer and the snow level will initially be higher. But I think as the storm matures, the snow levels could lower to below 2,000 feet even in N NH.