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Memorial Day Weekend Coastal/Snow

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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Posted

Man Phil nailed this..He absolutely was perfect on his analysis on how this would evolve. Great job

 

SURFACE LOW OVER CAPE COD CANAL WILL PUSH EASTWARD OF
THE NORTH SHORE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE CAPE ON SATURDAY AS DRY AIR INTRUSION
WILL PUSH THROUGH AS LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Scoots..you agree with his maps..Little or none out there whole weekend?

 

 

 

 

I think there will not be much precip on the Cape. There may be some shwrs or a bit of drizzle, but I think most stays NW. However, it looks colder today as the low track will be a bit further east I think. If you want to be optimistic, the least "suckiest" weather will be on the Cape, but still sucky.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Can anyone give me a rain breakdown for BOS? Any breaks to get Sox games in over the next few days? Thanks ...

 

Tomorrow pretty much is ocnl shwrs through the day into the evening. Timing is tough..but aftn most likely. I think Sunday might be ok except for clouds and a few aftn shwrs.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

I'm taking pics of people hiking up to get turns if it gets to that. Maybe I should bring my skies and boots? Its been a awhile since I skied N VT...I did Jay peak a couple times in 2007 during the great 2nd half of that winter.

will you bring the sweater and Bowtie?

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Man Phil nailed this..He absolutely was perfect on his analysis on how this would evolve. Great job

 

SURFACE LOW OVER CAPE COD CANAL WILL PUSH EASTWARD OF

THE NORTH SHORE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND

DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE CAPE ON SATURDAY AS DRY AIR INTRUSION

WILL PUSH THROUGH AS LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS.

Phil said Sunday was a disaster

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

WOW at Euro...that is destruction above 1500 feet. Powderfreak and I are exchanging spots (almost...he gets NE CT which isn't quite ORH, but same thing in this setup)...That is historical in N VT on the Euro...its on board now fully. Hopefully it stays now.

That is easily 20" over 3k...and probably 10"+ at Bolton Valley at 2k and maybe even base of Mansfield. Those temps are really cold. Euro finally slammed the qpf in the deformation too.

God this is painful. Supposed to be driving south this afternoon...arrrggghhh.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Props to TABER at BTV... it depends on the forecaster but I consult with Brooke off an on throughout the winter if we are looking for some additional weather input at the ski area.  He's a skier and loves the mountain weather so sure enough he'll put out a great AFD on the situation.

 

A LONG DURATION RAIN WITH SOME ACCUMULATING MTN
SNOW EVENT EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY...WITH SHARP RISES EXPECTED ON AREA WATERWAYS.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COMPLEX DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE EASTERN
CONUS THIS MORNING...AS BOTH NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ARE
PHASING. NOTICING LARGE PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC/SNE AS TROF BECMS NEGATIVELY TILTED. ALSO...DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT IS ROTATING ACRS THE SE CONUS. THESE FEATURES
COMBINED WITH A DUAL 25H JET STRUCTURE...SIMILAR TO A WINTER-TIME
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WL PRODUCE A COMPLEX WX SCENARIO ACRS OUR FA THIS WKND.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC A SHARP COLD FRNT IS MOVING ACRS OUR
CWA...HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LLVL THERMAL GRADIENT. THIS WL EVENTUALLY
PUSH TWD THE COAST...WITH COASTAL LOW PRES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
RAINFALL...ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AND POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN TODAY...AS FA IS BTWN
SYSTEMS. GFS/NAM SHOW BEST 7H FGEN FORCING AND ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ACRS OUR CWA AFT 18Z. IN ADDITION...WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH HEAVIEST QPF. WL
STILL MENTION CAT POPS...BUT QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE BTWN 0.10 AND
0.40" TODAY. TEMPS TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS WL STRUGGLE IN THE
U30S TO M40S MTNS TO L50S CPV/SLV TO NEAR 60F AT VSF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...POTENT NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY WL ROUND MID/UPPER
LVL TROF BASE AND DEVELOP SFC LOW PRES NEAR CAPE COD BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WL QUICKLY BECM VERTICALLY AND NEGATIVELY
STACKED AS 7H/5H CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN AND BECOME CLOSED. THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WL ADVECT PLENTY OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BACK INTO OUR FA BTWN 850 AND 700MB...WHILE A VERY COLD AIR MASS IS
PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THIS VERY TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE RRQ OF 25H JET WL
PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP EVENT ACRS MOST OF
OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN DACKS INTO VT. THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE
COASTAL SYSTEM WL HAVE A VERY WINTER-TIME THERMAL/JET STRUCTURE.
BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF BACKSIDE
DEFORMATION BAND OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
LAYER OMEGA FROM 18Z TODAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY. THIS BAND OF FAVORABLE
LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...WHICH
WL PRODUCE A LONG DURATION PRECIP EVENT. THE FGEN FORCING AND
DEFORMATION ZNS NW OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
YOU SEE IN A WINTER TIME COASTAL...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE BACKSIDE
UPSLOPE PARAMETERS.

RAINFALL...EXPECT STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75"
FOR THE SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 1.0 TO 2.0" CPV/EASTERN DACKS TO DOWNSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE NEK TO 1.50 TO 2.5"...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MTNS
OF NORTH/CENTRAL VT BY 00Z MONDAY. THESE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER A 24 TO 48 PERIOD WL CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL RIVER AND LOW LYING FLOODING POSSIBLE.
NOTE...THIS WL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT WITH STEADY/MODERATE RAINFALL
RATES...WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM THURSDAY EVENT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST QPF...THEREFORE NO
FLOOD WATCH WL BE ISSUED ATTM.

SNOWFALL...STILL HAVING A HARD TIME BELIEVING ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACRS THE MTNS ABOVE 2500 FT ON SAT INTO
SUNDAY. GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF PROFILES HAVE INDICATED
THIS POTENTIAL FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AS COLDER AIR IS
WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BLW 0C BY
TONIGHT...WITH 1000 TO 500MB THICKNESS VALUES BLW 540DAM. THIS
COMBINED WITH SOME COOLING FROM STRONG DYNAMICS WL HELP TO PRODUCE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACRS THE DACKS AND GREEN MTNS ABOVE
2500FT. WL TRY TO SHOW IN GRIDS...BUT IMPACTS WL BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THINKING A DUSTING TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
HEAVY WET SNOW WL BE POSSIBLE...WITH 6 INCHES OR SO FOR THE
SUMMITS FROM MT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN DACKS BY SUNDAY. BEST CHC FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPS/WINDS...PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS/PRECIP AND A NORTH WIND WL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE M/U 30S
MTNS TO M/U 40S SLV/CPV ON SAT/SUNDAY. THE TRENDS HAVE BEEN COOLER AND
COOLER IN THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ON SAT
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP/CLOUDS...THINKING L/M 30S MTNS TO NEAR 40F CPV/SLV.
EXPECT A COLD/BLUSTERY AND WET DAY ON SUNDAY FOR MARATHON
ACTIVITIES IN BURLINGTON.

&&

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
Posted

I'm wondering if I'll see some flakes down here from this. A GFS or Euro depiction could imply something even down here, especially around 2K. Despite the time of year, this does have a couple of things going for it: northwest flow and wrap around deformation. If the deform band can reach this far south, we may be in for some flakeage, which both the GFS and Euro depict, especially for the northern Berks.

 

The northwest flow suggests additional cooling and lift via upslope as well. The 4/27-28/10 event produced nearly an inch here. If this was winter, I'd be extremely excited about this synoptic setup as NW flow and mid-level deformation is usually a recipe for success here on the west slope. Unfortunately, these setups are comparatively rare.

 

Shot from the morning of 4/28/10:

 

img1250xa.jpg

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

BTV staying conservative for now on the snow levels....probably smart given there is still a bit of uncertainty...but I think there's going to be decent snow below 2500 feet if these model progs stay consistent.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

I'm wondering if I'll see some flakes down here from this. A GFS or Euro depiction could imply something even down here, especially around 2K. Despite the time of year, this does have a couple of things going for it: northwest flow and wrap around deformation. If the deform band can reach this far south, we may be in for some flakeage, which both the GFS and Euro depict, especially for the northern Berks.

 

The northwest flow suggests additional cooling and lift via upslope as well. The 4/27-28/10 event produced nearly an inch here. If this was winter, I'd be extremely excited about this synoptic setup as NW flow and mid-level deformation is usually a recipe for success here on the west slope. Unfortunately, these setups are comparatively rare.

 

Shot from the morning of 4/28/10:

 

 

 

Its funny you mention this because I've mentioned that event several times over the past two days. 

 

It has the same mid-level deformation coupled with upslope NW flow which is very favorable for getting snow levels lower than expected.  That event started out as only being above 2,000ft and upslope cooling quickly brought snow to the valley floors.  The models won't catch that extra cooling.

 

This basically sums it up and in the winter is certainly what produce our largest snowstorms...storms like Valentines Day 07 when the fronto-band curled over us and NW-winds maximized that precipitation production in the lower levels.  Its like seeder-feeder with mid-level processes happening over pretty significant low-level processes, and we know that low level upslope can be significant on its own even without deeper mechanics in play overhead.

 

BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF BACKSIDE

DEFORMATION BAND OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP

LAYER OMEGA FROM 18Z TODAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY. THIS BAND OF FAVORABLE

LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...WHICH

WL PRODUCE A LONG DURATION PRECIP EVENT. THE FGEN FORCING AND

DEFORMATION ZNS NW OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT

YOU SEE IN A WINTER TIME COASTAL...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE BACKSIDE

UPSLOPE PARAMETERS.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

If that def zone and NW upslope meet up...throw in the Froude numbers etc....man I can't imagine less than a foot..probably double..lol. I suppose you want to see one more run to really lock in an epic event. 

 

And yeah, that would imply low elevations getting snow too. Just nuts.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

My gut tells me that Mansfield at 3k is probably going to get about 2-3 times those amounts.

 

lol... I know.  It usually does.  I think even if it were to stay a bit east like the NAM, the upslope flow will still compensate along the Spine. 

 

My experience (and likely the pictures I post all the time help to portray this) is that when there is moisture and you are on the western flank of a storm, you can take the over on whatever the models are printing out.  At least at 3,000ft where my un-attended snowstake will be sitting.

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