canderson Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Can anyone give me a rain breakdown for BOS? Any breaks to get Sox games in over the next few days? Thanks ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 24, 2013 Author Share Posted May 24, 2013 Scoots..you agree with his maps..Little or none out there whole weekend? http://mnoy.es/10PW9T7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 24, 2013 Author Share Posted May 24, 2013 Man Phil nailed this..He absolutely was perfect on his analysis on how this would evolve. Great job SURFACE LOW OVER CAPE COD CANAL WILL PUSH EASTWARD OFTHE NORTH SHORE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ANDDRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE CAPE ON SATURDAY AS DRY AIR INTRUSIONWILL PUSH THROUGH AS LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Scoots..you agree with his maps..Little or none out there whole weekend? http://mnoy.es/10PW9T7 I think there will not be much precip on the Cape. There may be some shwrs or a bit of drizzle, but I think most stays NW. However, it looks colder today as the low track will be a bit further east I think. If you want to be optimistic, the least "suckiest" weather will be on the Cape, but still sucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Can anyone give me a rain breakdown for BOS? Any breaks to get Sox games in over the next few days? Thanks ... Tomorrow pretty much is ocnl shwrs through the day into the evening. Timing is tough..but aftn most likely. I think Sunday might be ok except for clouds and a few aftn shwrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 24, 2013 Author Share Posted May 24, 2013 Sunny breaks if I'm lucky. If not just clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Warmer jackets imby tomorrow....40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Saw this on the expressway this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 I texted that truck to Kevin a couple of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 I'm taking pics of people hiking up to get turns if it gets to that. Maybe I should bring my skies and boots? Its been a awhile since I skied N VT...I did Jay peak a couple times in 2007 during the great 2nd half of that winter. will you bring the sweater and Bowtie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Man Phil nailed this..He absolutely was perfect on his analysis on how this would evolve. Great job SURFACE LOW OVER CAPE COD CANAL WILL PUSH EASTWARD OF THE NORTH SHORE. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE CAPE ON SATURDAY AS DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL PUSH THROUGH AS LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS. Phil said Sunday was a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 I know the NWS doesn't have a statement out, but might be some splashover or minor CF tonight if the winds behind the front can get to 20-25kts or so. Very high tides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Ginxy .. just to give you the original in case you want to save it. The other was a cellphone photo of my pc monitor. Enjoy! And keep an eye out for a pic of Will and Powderfreak prancing together in their sweaters .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Tomorrow pretty much is ocnl shwrs through the day into the evening. Timing is tough..but aftn most likely. I think Sunday might be ok except for clouds and a few aftn shwrs. Thanks, sir. I packed the parka and ponchos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 WOW at Euro...that is destruction above 1500 feet. Powderfreak and I are exchanging spots (almost...he gets NE CT which isn't quite ORH, but same thing in this setup)...That is historical in N VT on the Euro...its on board now fully. Hopefully it stays now. That is easily 20" over 3k...and probably 10"+ at Bolton Valley at 2k and maybe even base of Mansfield. Those temps are really cold. Euro finally slammed the qpf in the deformation too. God this is painful. Supposed to be driving south this afternoon...arrrggghhh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 24, 2013 Author Share Posted May 24, 2013 Phil said Sunday was a disasterNope. He realized yesterday it wasn't. Sunday is dry and cloudy out there. We lucked out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Wonder if this shifts to whites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 I will be sitting at 1288 feet in the middle of Caledonia County this weekend. I wonder if the snow gets down to me. If not I may have to go for a run up the hill to where the road hits 1900'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Props to TABER at BTV... it depends on the forecaster but I consult with Brooke off an on throughout the winter if we are looking for some additional weather input at the ski area. He's a skier and loves the mountain weather so sure enough he'll put out a great AFD on the situation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ink to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 I'm wondering if I'll see some flakes down here from this. A GFS or Euro depiction could imply something even down here, especially around 2K. Despite the time of year, this does have a couple of things going for it: northwest flow and wrap around deformation. If the deform band can reach this far south, we may be in for some flakeage, which both the GFS and Euro depict, especially for the northern Berks. The northwest flow suggests additional cooling and lift via upslope as well. The 4/27-28/10 event produced nearly an inch here. If this was winter, I'd be extremely excited about this synoptic setup as NW flow and mid-level deformation is usually a recipe for success here on the west slope. Unfortunately, these setups are comparatively rare. Shot from the morning of 4/28/10: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 Wonder if this shifts to whites Given the current placing of the low on the GFS and Euro, I'm favoring the Greens for now. The NAM may be too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 BTV staying conservative for now on the snow levels....probably smart given there is still a bit of uncertainty...but I think there's going to be decent snow below 2500 feet if these model progs stay consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 5-9" in the forecast grid for Mount Mansfield at 3,000ft... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 I'm wondering if I'll see some flakes down here from this. A GFS or Euro depiction could imply something even down here, especially around 2K. Despite the time of year, this does have a couple of things going for it: northwest flow and wrap around deformation. If the deform band can reach this far south, we may be in for some flakeage, which both the GFS and Euro depict, especially for the northern Berks. The northwest flow suggests additional cooling and lift via upslope as well. The 4/27-28/10 event produced nearly an inch here. If this was winter, I'd be extremely excited about this synoptic setup as NW flow and mid-level deformation is usually a recipe for success here on the west slope. Unfortunately, these setups are comparatively rare. Shot from the morning of 4/28/10: Its funny you mention this because I've mentioned that event several times over the past two days. It has the same mid-level deformation coupled with upslope NW flow which is very favorable for getting snow levels lower than expected. That event started out as only being above 2,000ft and upslope cooling quickly brought snow to the valley floors. The models won't catch that extra cooling. This basically sums it up and in the winter is certainly what produce our largest snowstorms...storms like Valentines Day 07 when the fronto-band curled over us and NW-winds maximized that precipitation production in the lower levels. Its like seeder-feeder with mid-level processes happening over pretty significant low-level processes, and we know that low level upslope can be significant on its own even without deeper mechanics in play overhead. BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF BACKSIDE DEFORMATION BAND OF ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER OMEGA FROM 18Z TODAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY. THIS BAND OF FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS...WHICH WL PRODUCE A LONG DURATION PRECIP EVENT. THE FGEN FORCING AND DEFORMATION ZNS NW OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT YOU SEE IN A WINTER TIME COASTAL...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE BACKSIDE UPSLOPE PARAMETERS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 5-9" in the forecast grid for Mount Mansfield at 3,000ft... My gut tells me that Mansfield at 3k is probably going to get about 2-3 times those amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 If that def zone and NW upslope meet up...throw in the Froude numbers etc....man I can't imagine less than a foot..probably double..lol. I suppose you want to see one more run to really lock in an epic event. And yeah, that would imply low elevations getting snow too. Just nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 My gut tells me that Mansfield at 3k is probably going to get about 2-3 times those amounts. lol... I know. It usually does. I think even if it were to stay a bit east like the NAM, the upslope flow will still compensate along the Spine. My experience (and likely the pictures I post all the time help to portray this) is that when there is moisture and you are on the western flank of a storm, you can take the over on whatever the models are printing out. At least at 3,000ft where my un-attended snowstake will be sitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 The 12z NAM has basically changed MPV over to snow by 18z tomorrow. Just crazy profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 The NAM is frigid...it probably flips the ORH hills and definitely the Berkshires over to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 24, 2013 Share Posted May 24, 2013 I don't recall hearing of a storm of this magnitude this late since the year with no summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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