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Memorial Day Weekend Coastal/Snow


Damage In Tolland

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Omg that is as perfect as it gets, Will on the Gondola at Stowe looking for flakes, any flakes.

That's awesome...

I'll have to get Jayhawk a shot of me or have him lift one off FB...I want a 1970s looking sweater and peering out over the slopes with a noose in hand haha.

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18z GFS came in a bit warmer, but still has just an insane CCB/deformation over N VT. I would still think that is destrcution at 2,000 feet in the region...also a very moist NNW BL flow during the most intense precip which would mean the N Greens upslope zone would absolutely clean up and likely be colder than model guidance shows...esp the GFS which doesn't have the reoslution for that type of thing.

 

 

I would like to see the 00z suite come in bullish before actually forecasting solid snow for where I'll be chasing (potentially chasing that is)

Sweater on for your chase?
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18z GFS came in a bit warmer, but still has just an insane CCB/deformation over N VT. I would still think that is destrcution at 2,000 feet in the region...also a very moist NNW BL flow during the most intense precip which would mean the N Greens upslope zone would absolutely clean up and likely be colder than model guidance shows...esp the GFS which doesn't have the reoslution for that type of thing.

 

 

I would like to see the 00z suite come in bullish before actually forecasting solid snow for where I'll be chasing (potentially chasing that is)

 

Man it has been a few winters since we've hit a storm with this type of set-up.  If only this were two months earlier.  Heck even a month earlier and its the end-of-April-2010 storm. 

 

I could just weenie out over the tracks of the mid-level lows and sfc low, along with the positioning of the frontogenic forcing and mid-level deformation.  We are due for one of these during the winter, though it is almost oddly similar to what happened on March 6-7, 2011 so maybe we aren't really "due" haha.  That storm was a 3"+ QPF event with a stalling frontal boundary allowing a low to ride up it on the coast, and it was just cold enough from MPV and north/west for 20-30 inch snowfalls after over 1" of rainfall.  I think that had a pretty similar evolution except it was just obviously colder.

 

Anyway, I can dream that this was March or something... as this is the QPF from the coastal low and doesn't include QPF over the next 30 hours.

 

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Man it has been a few winters since we've hit a storm with this type of set-up.  If only this were two months earlier.  Heck even a month earlier and its the end-of-April-2010 storm. 

 

I could just weenie out over the tracks of the mid-level lows and sfc low, along with the positioning of the frontogenic forcing and mid-level deformation.  We are due for one of these during the winter, though it is almost oddly similar to what happened on March 6-7, 2011 so maybe we aren't really "due" haha.  That storm was a 3"+ QPF event with a stalling frontal boundary allowing a low to ride up it on the coast, and it was just cold enough from MPV and north/west for 20-30 inch snowfalls after over 1" of rainfall.  I think that had a pretty similar evolution except it was just obviously colder.

 

Anyway, I can dream that this was March or something... as this is the QPF from the coastal low and doesn't include QPF over the next 30 hours.

 

attachicon.gif18zGFS.jpg

 

 

This storm would probably be good even for ORH in the winter...one of those storms that hammers both interior SNE and N VT...they aren't THAT common but they do happen, like 1/3-4/03. The ML features would bullseye N VT though.

 

But this one just has a good "Feel" to it...the ML features are so robust and look much more like winter than spring.

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It absolutely rips Saturday aftn there. Look at MPV

 

attachicon.gifMPV.gif

 

 

Yeah that is total dumpage maybe even above 1500 feet instead of 2500 feet. Its not exactly a big spike in temps in the lower 2000 feet there. That's probably monster aggregates falling on powderfreak's special 8-person Van he is allowed to ride up the toll road...but while he is gone it will just accumulate huge blocks of snow while he is in CT.

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Yeah that is total dumpage maybe even above 1500 feet instead of 2500 feet. Its not exactly a big spike in temps in the lower 2000 feet there. That's probably monster aggregates falling on powderfreak's special 8-person Van he is allowed to ride up the toll road...but while he is gone it will just accumulate huge blocks of snow while he is in CT.

 

LOL, Man to get some turns in on Mem weekend would be incredible though...that has to be itching him.

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LOL, Man to get some turns in on Mem weekend would be incredible though...that has to be itching him.

 

 

I'm taking pics of people hiking up to get turns if it gets to that. Maybe I should bring my skies and boots? Its been a awhile since I skied N VT...I did Jay peak a couple times in 2007 during the great 2nd half of that winter.

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WOW...much colder again. N VT gets destroyed. 925mb freezing level at 18z Saturday on the GFS...you know that is prob S+ to 1500 feet.

 

Almost like the further north track keeps more cold air supply connected with the storm.   Looks like a big rhododendron ripper for the higher elevations of WNE

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I'm taking pics of people hiking up to get turns if it gets to that. Maybe I should bring my skies and boots? Its been a awhile since I skied N VT...I did Jay peak a couple times in 2007 during the great 2nd half of that winter.

That may be the end of Powderfreak as we know it, if you do that. He may throw himself off that ledge....the same one moose accidentally fall off of and then are found later in the spring when the snow melts.

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Almost like the further north track keeps more cold air supply connected with the storm.   Looks like a big rhododendron ripper for the higher elevations of WNE

 

Yeah further north and later phase seems to help N VT...entrain that colder air.

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That may be the end of Powderfreak as we know it, if you do that. He may throw himself off that ledge....the same one moose accidentally fall off of and then are found later in the spring when the snow melts.

 

 

Powderfreak will be found with him strangled by a sweater sleeve wrapped around that moose antler.

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WOW at Euro...that is destruction above 1500 feet. Powderfreak and I are exchanging spots (almost...he gets NE CT which isn't quite ORH, but same thing in this setup)...That is historical in N VT on the Euro...its on board now fully. Hopefully it stays now.

 

That is easily 20" over 3k...and probably 10"+ at Bolton Valley at 2k and maybe even base of Mansfield. Those temps are really cold. Euro finally slammed the qpf in the deformation too.

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I'm taking pics of people hiking up to get turns if it gets to that. Maybe I should bring my skies and boots? Its been a awhile since I skied N VT...I did Jay peak a couple times in 2007 during the great 2nd half of that winter.

Nobody is going to be hiking for turns. That's just silly. WAY too much work. I certainly will not be doing that. 

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